The July report for the 2018 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available online. The goal of the SIO is to improve sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales. For the July report, 39 contributions were received that include pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 9 also included pan-Antarctic predictions and 11 included predictions for Alaskan waters. For the Arctic, the median July Outlook value for a September 2018 sea ice extent projection is 4.7 million square kilometers.
The July report includes an overview of projections of total September Arctic ice extent; a section about predicted spatial fields with discussion on sea ice probability (SIP) and the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of dynamical models; a section on current conditions and atmospheric conditions; a section discussing regional sea ice conditions; and a section discussing Antarctic sea ice extent forecasts.
The July report is the product of the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) effort. The goal of the previous SIPN1 was to enhance scientific discussion on the physics that control summer sea ice extents. In SIPN2 there is a further analysis of quantitatively comparing model forecast output.