Sea Ice Prediction Network

The July report for the 2018 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available online. The goal of the SIO is to improve sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales. For the July report, 39 contributions were received that include pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 9 also included pan-Antarctic predictions and 11 included predictions for Alaskan waters. For the Arctic, the median July Outlook value for a September 2018 sea ice extent projection is 4.7 million square kilometers.

The July report includes an overview of projections of total September Arctic ice extent; a section about predicted spatial fields with discussion on sea ice probability (SIP) and the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of dynamical models; a section on current conditions and atmospheric conditions; a section discussing regional sea ice conditions; and a section discussing Antarctic sea ice extent forecasts.

The July report is the product of the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) effort. The goal of the previous SIPN1 was to enhance scientific discussion on the physics that control summer sea ice extents. In SIPN2 there is a further analysis of quantitatively comparing model forecast output.

An "Arctic Sea Ice Prediction Stakeholders Workshop" will be held on Monday, 22 January 2018 in conjunction with the Arctic Frontiers Conference in Tromso, Norway. This workshop will bring together sea ice stakeholders and forecasters to:
1) Assess the value of forecasts by the user community.
2) Determine if and how ice forecasts are currently being used in decision making.
3) Communicate the relevant metrics needed by various stakeholders.
4) Identify where improvements in sea ice forecasts would help stakeholders make decisions.
5) Communicate the limits and opportunities of current forecasting systems.