Sea Ice Prediction Network
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2020 Sea Ice Outlook Interim Post-Season Report is Now Available Online
The 2020 Sea Ice Outlook Interim Post-Season Report is now available. The September monthly averaged sea ice extent at the end of the 2020 summer melt season was 3.92 million square kilometers. This is the second lowest in the satellite record that began in 1979.
This interim report is intended as a quick postseason update that summarizes how the outlooks did in comparison to the observed September monthly mean extent. A full post-season report, to be published in February 2021, will include an in-depth analysis of factors impacting sea ice this past summer, further discussion about the outlooks, comments on regional observation, predicted spatial fields, Antarctic contributions, and a summary from the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx).
2020 August Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available Online
The 2020 August Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2020 August report, 39 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 10 included predictions for the Alaska Region and 7 included pan-Antarctic predictions. We received 13 submissions of sea-ice probability and 9 submissions of first ice-free date, and for the August report, ice advance dates were computed from four contributions. For 2020 we also invited contributors to submit initial conditions (sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness) of their forecasts to better understand how observations are being used in forecasts.
For the pan-Arctic, the median August Outlook value for September 2020 sea-ice extent is 4.30 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.5 million square kilometers. The median is close to the observed 2019 September sea-ice extent of 4.32 million square kilometers.
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces the Call for Contributions for the 2020 Sea Ice Outlook August Report (based on May, June, and July data). The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas.
Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Extent Outlooks and any additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted for the 2020 August Outlook. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). All participants whose methods provide information at the local scale are encouraged to provide full spatial fields via the SIPN Data Portal. New for the August SIO Report: Forecasts for ice advance dates (IAD) will be calculated from the full spatial fields of sea ice concentration that extend through the ice-advance seasons.
The 2020 SIO will also accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean. Additionally, we encourage submissions to the associated effort of the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment.
Submission deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Wednesday, 12 July 2020 (firm).
2020 July Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available Online
The 2020 July Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2020 July report, 38 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 10 included predictions for the Alaska Region and 7 included pan-Antarctic predictions. Additionally, we received 13 submissions of sea-ice probability and 10 submissions of first ice-free date. New this year, the report includes ice-free conditions for the Hudson Bay region; the September sea-ice concentration contour in the Fram Strait region, motivated by the MOSAiC expedition; and we invited contributors to submit initial conditions (sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness) of their forecasts to better understand how observations are being used in forecasts.
For the pan-Arctic, the median July Outlook value for September 2020 sea-ice extent is 4.36 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.6 million square kilometers. The median is close to the observed 2019 September sea-ice extent of 4.32 million square kilometers.
SIPN2 Webinar - Call for Registration
The Sea Ice Prediction Network – Phase 2 (SIPN2) invites registration for an open webinar entitled “Machine Learning—Challenges and Opportunities for Applications in Sea-Ice Prediction.” This webinar will focus on the use of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, on how such approaches can be applied in cryospheric research, as well as related challenges and limitations. Discussion will include the use of advanced machine learning algorithms in climate science with attention on how to improve the prediction of future sea-ice. Time for participant questions will follow the presentations. This one-hour event will be held on Wednesday, 29 July 2020 starting at 8:00 am (AKDT).
SIPN Data Portal
The SIPN Data Portal, a contribution to SIPN2 and the Sea Ice Outlook, displays analysis of sea ice forecasts and compares them with observations.
Sea Ice Data at NSIDC
Through the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), SIPN manages a comprehensive list of datasets useful for sea ice prediction.
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