Sea Ice Prediction Network

The August report for the 2016 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available! The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales. Organizers thank all who contributed to the 40 Outlooks received for this report - a record number of contributions! This month the median pan-Arctic extent Outlook for September 2016 sea ice extent is 4.4 million square kilometers. Contributions are based on a range of methods from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. This report includes discussions about dynamical model contributions and their variance, current conditions, recent atmospheric conditions, probability forecasts for late summer meteorological conditions, and comments on sea ice conditions in the Alaska sector as well as the Outlooks that focused on that region; key statements from each individual Outlook; and links to view or download individual contributions.

The July report for the 2016 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available! The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales. Organizers thank all who contributed to the 37 Outlooks received for this report. The median pan-Arctic Outlook value for September 2016 sea ice extent is 4.3 million square kilometers. Contributions are based on a range of methods from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The report includes discussion about dynamical model contributions and their variance, which has narrowed since the June report; discussion on predicted spatial fields, sea ice probability (SIP), and the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of dynamical models; discussion on current conditions, recent atmospheric conditions, and probability forecasts for late summer meteorological conditions; key statements from each individual Outlook; and links to view or download individual contributions.