Sea Ice Prediction Network
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2021 August Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available Online
The 2021 August Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2021 August report, 45 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, nine also included predictions for pan-Antarctic, nine included predictions for the Alaska Region, and 15 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions on current conditions in the Arctic; ocean heat conditions; predictions of Arctic sea-ice probability, ice-free dates, ice-advance dates, and initial conditions for those forecasts; Arctic regional sea-ice extent; Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies; and Antarctic contributions.
For the pan-Arctic, the median August Outlook value for September 2021 sea-ice extent is 4.39 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.5 million square kilometers. The forecasts continue to support a September 2021 mean sea-ice extent that is well above the September 2020 value of 4.00 million square kilometers.
2020 Sea Ice Outlook Post-Season Report Now Available
The 2020 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Post-Season Report is now available online. The SIO is a community network activity led by the Sea Ice Prediction Network-Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team with contributions from key partners. This report includes in-depth discussions and analysis of factors impacting sea ice this past summer, the SIO contributions, regional observation, predicted spatial fields, Antarctic contributions, seasonal sea ice forecasting for the Alaska marine shipping industry, and a summary from the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx). This report also includes a discussion of lessons learned from the SIO Contributors Forum, and discussions regarding probabilistic assessment of the 2008-2020 Outlooks and an evaluation of SIO forecast skill relative to control forecasts.
SIO Contributors Forum
The SIPN2 leadership team hosted a virtual forum for SIO Contributors to share information about sea-ice forecast methods, discuss related challenges, and identify activities and products that could advance forecasting skill. Participation was by invitation only and limited to individuals who recently submitted forecasts to the SIO. Meeting Products are under development and will be announced via the SIPN mailing list.
For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).
2020 Sea Ice Outlook Interim Post-Season Report is Now Available Online
The 2020 Sea Ice Outlook Interim Post-Season Report is now available. The September monthly averaged sea ice extent at the end of the 2020 summer melt season was 3.92 million square kilometers. This is the second lowest in the satellite record that began in 1979.
This interim report is intended as a quick postseason update that summarizes how the outlooks did in comparison to the observed September monthly mean extent. A full post-season report, to be published in February 2021, will include an in-depth analysis of factors impacting sea ice this past summer, further discussion about the outlooks, comments on regional observation, predicted spatial fields, Antarctic contributions, and a summary from the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx).
2020 August Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available Online
The 2020 August Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2020 August report, 39 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 10 included predictions for the Alaska Region and 7 included pan-Antarctic predictions. We received 13 submissions of sea-ice probability and 9 submissions of first ice-free date, and for the August report, ice advance dates were computed from four contributions. For 2020 we also invited contributors to submit initial conditions (sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness) of their forecasts to better understand how observations are being used in forecasts.
For the pan-Arctic, the median August Outlook value for September 2020 sea-ice extent is 4.30 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.5 million square kilometers. The median is close to the observed 2019 September sea-ice extent of 4.32 million square kilometers.
SIPN Data Portal
The SIPN Data Portal, a contribution to SIPN2 and the Sea Ice Outlook, displays analysis of sea ice forecasts and compares them with observations.
Sea Ice Data at NSIDC
Through the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), SIPN manages a comprehensive list of datasets useful for sea ice prediction.
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