News Archive

The 2021 July Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2021 July report, 41 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, eight also included predictions for pan-Antarctic, eight included predictions for the Alaska Region, and 14 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions on current conditions in the Arctic, ocean heat, predictions of sea-Ice probability and ice-free dates, initial conditions for those forecasts, Arctic regional sea-ice extent, Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies, and Antarctic contributions.

For the pan-Arctic, the median July Outlook value for September 2021 sea-ice extent is 4.36 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.09 and 4.52 million square kilometers. The median is close to the 2021 June Outlook, of 4.37 million square kilometers. The observed 2020 September sea-ice extent was 4.00 million square kilometers.

The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team announces the Call for Contributions to the 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) July Report (based on May and June data). The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Post-Season reports focus on performance of the Outlooks, analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent, and scientific methods for predicting seasonal conditions.

Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Monday, 12 July 2021 (firm).

The 2021 June Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2021 June report, 38 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, eight also included predictions for pan-Antarctic, seven included predictions for the Alaska Region, and 14 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes new discussions on Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies, SIO contributor motivations, and the emerging pattern in the Sea Ice Outlooks.

For the pan-Arctic, the median June Outlook value for September 2021 sea-ice extent is 4.37 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.07 and 4.61 million square kilometers. The median is close to the 2020 June Outlook, of 4.33 million square kilometers. The observed 2020 September sea-ice extent was 3.92 million square kilometers.

The Sea Ice Prediction Network-Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces an upcoming webinar, entitled "Prospects for Improved Regional Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice" that will be presented by Mitch Bushuk at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This webinar will provide an overview of a newly developed dynamical seasonal prediction system and its performance in predicting regional Arctic sea-ice conditions. The one-hour webinar will be held on Tuesday, 13 July 2021, starting at 9:00 a.m. (AKDT).

ARCUS invites registration for the next Arctic Research Seminar featuring Don Anderson, a Senior Scientist in the Biology Department at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Dr. Anderson’s presentation, titled “Evidence for Massive and Recurrent Toxic Blooms of Alexandrium catenella in the Alaskan Arctic,” will be held via Zoom on Tuesday, 22 June 2021 at 9:00 a.m. AKDT (1:00 p.m. EDT). Registration is required for this event.