, ,
, ,
, ,
Studies have shown that by using improved ice thickness distribution to initialize the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) can result in improved sea ice simulation. Here we examine whether such sea ice thickness initialization can have positive impact as well on surface atmospheric forcing in the Arctic by a number of ensemble seasonal prediction experiments. Sea ice thickness from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) were used to initialize the hindcasts. The predicted atmospheric forcing is evaluated against several reanalysis products including the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR-R1). While there are discrepancies among the reanalysis products, we do find that some are better performed than the others. The variables we investigated are those regional ocean-ice model will be taken as atmospheric forcings. The quality of these variables therefore has direct impact on the regional or stand-alone ocean-ice model simulation results. Preliminary results show that seasonal predictions of surface atmospheric forcing are sensitive to the initial sea ice thickness. This suggests that local meteorological forecasts can be improved by assimilating sea ice thickness into the coupled climate model.