Webinars and Virtual Events
2021-10-18 - 2021-10-20
Online: 9:00 am - 12:00 pm AKDT, 1:00-4:00 pm EDT

Register now for the virtual OCB pre-Arctic COLORS Data Synthesis Community Meeting.

As NASA prepares for the Arctic-COLORS large-scale field campaign in the near future, it is imperative to identify and characterize existing field data sets, modeling activities, and remote sensing capabilities within the coastal Arctic region that make up the Arctic-COLORS study domain. To work towards accomplishing these aims, an open virtual Community Meeting, as a pre-Arctic-COLORS data synthesis activity, sponsored by NASA and the OCB Project Office.

We invite stakeholders of the Arctic-COLORS study region to participate in this community meeting to discuss and share information on past, current, and planned field measurement, modeling, and remote sensing activities. This virtual Community Meeting will bring together a multidisciplinary network of scientists conducting research on biogeochemical fluxes and exchanges along the Arctic aquatic continuum, from rivers to the coastal Arctic Ocean, to lay the groundwork for what data are available, where data are hosted, and who to involve in retrieving them. This synthesis activity is an important stepping-stone toward the development of the Arctic-COLORS Implementation Plan and eventually the Arctic-COLORS field campaign itself. We are very excited about the workshop and are working hard to make it an interactive experience. A draft agenda is available below and on the meeting webpage.

Overview

  • October 18 - 9:00 am - 12:00 pm AKDT, 1:00-4:00 pm EDT
    Day 1 will focus on overview of this Arctic-COLORS synthesis activity (goals and objectives, outcomes, etc.) and presentations on relevant field measurements, including large field programs.
  • October 19 - 9:00 am - 12:00 pm AKDT, 1:00-4:00 pm EDT
    Day 2 will focus on modeling activities, with presentations highlighting major modeling activities.
  • October 20 - 9:00 am - 12:00 pm AKDT, 1:00-4:00 pm EDT
    Day 3 will focus on remote sensing, focusing on challenges, progress, and needs on satellite and airborne remote sensing.
Webinars and Virtual Events
Arctic Research Seminar Series with Donald Anderson
2021-10-19
Online: 9:00-10:00 am AKDT, 1:00-2:00 pm EDT

ARCUS invites registration for the next Arctic Research Seminar featuring Dr. Kirsi Latola, UArctic’s Vice-President of Networks, titled "UArctic Thematic Networks: A Tool for Joint Research and Education" will be held via Zoom.

Registration is required for this event. Instructions for accessing the webinar will be sent to registrants prior to the event.

Abstract

The University of the Arctic (UArctic) is a network of 230 universities, colleges, research institutes, and other organizations concerned with education and research in and about the North. UArctic builds and strengthens collective resources and infrastructures that enable member institutions to better serve their constituents and their regions. The tools for joint research and research-based education are Thematic Networks. Thematic networks are theme-based international and diverse groups of individuals and organizations who create opportunities for students, conduct joint research, and share knowledge on topical Arctic issues.

In this presentation, Dr. Latola will talk about UArctic’s Thematic Networks, how they are endorsed, how they function, and the different pathways that individual researchers and institutions can take to participate in them. She will show examples of Thematic Network joint activities, and will also briefly share news on the next UArctic Congress 2022, which will be held in Moscow in October 2022.

Speaker Details

Over the past fifteen years PhD Kirsi Latola has worked in several Polar coordination actions and holds a positions of research coordinator at the Thule Institute at the University of Oulu, Finland. She has managed several national and international projects on Arctic research, coordination and knowledge sharing including organising several international events. Broad knowledge particularly on Arctic research and infrastructures led also to her appointment to the chair of European Polar Board in 2017, where she is now in her second term. In her position as a UArctic Vice President Networks she leads University of Arctic’s network activities and supports over 60 Thematic Networks. In addition to her work for UArctic and supporting the Arctic research conducted at the University of Oulu, she acts as a Transnational access Watch Dog in INTERACT - International Network for Terrestrial Research and Monitoring in the Arctic (H2020 2016-21, 2020-24) and leads a work package on stakeholder engagement in the EU-PolarNet 2 project on coordinating and co-designing the European Polar Research area (H2020, 2020-2024). Her expertise in the project is a stakeholder engagement which follows the work and white paper she completed during the first EU-Polarnet (2015-20).

Webinars and Virtual Events
2021-10-20
Online: 8:00-10:00 am AKDT, 12:00-2:00 pm EDT

NERACOOS and CIOOS Atlantic, with funding support from the U.S. Embassy in Canada, will host a three-part webinar series featuring discussions with local experts on scientific, economic, and policy issues facing coastal communities spanning the Arctic to the Northeastern seaboard of the United States. Each of the three seminars will coincide with part of the voyage of the US Coast Guard Cutter Healy, which has partnered with Canada to undertake a research cruise the Northwest Passage and circumnavigation of North America. As the Healy passes through the Arctic, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Nova Scotia and the Gulf of Maine, experts in a variety of subjects will speak about the challenges they're encountering, and how we can come up with solutions that transcend borders.

Please follow the link above for more information and to register.

Webinars and Virtual Events
2021-10-20
Online: 9:30-11:00 am AKDT, 1:30-3:00 pm EDT

Published in 2021, Welp: Climate Change and Arctic Identities explores the intersections of systemic racism, the Anthropocene, and environmental policy against the backdrop of Norway, Iceland, and the author’s Alaskan home.

“Climate change, first and foremost, is a cultural problem embedded in our connection to and use of land and water,” writes Michaela Stith, author of Welp: Climate Change and Arctic Identities. Through research, intimate interviews, and laugh-out-loud stories, her debut travel memoir pieces together a beautifully honest portrait of the Arctic focused on the ways international governance, conservation science, and cultural biases touch the lives of young Black and Indigenous people across the circumpolar North.

Please join the Wilson Center’s Polar Institute, with the Dartmouth Institute of Arctic Studies and Hart Leadership Program, for a book talk and panel connecting policy, cultural safety, and food, water and environmental security in the Arctic region.

Please follow the link above for more information.

Other
A Scientific Symposium in the Memory of Koni Steffen
2021-10-21 - 2021-10-22
Davos, Switzerland

Update: PLEASE NOTE THAT DUE TO COVID-19 THIS EVENT HAS BEEN POSTPONED FROM 21-22 OCTOBER 2021 TO 23-24 JUNE 2022. PLEASE FOLLOW THE SYMPOSIUM WEBSITE FOR UPDATES.


Please join us in Davos in October 2021 for an exciting scientific symposium with high-level speakers, scientific poster sessions and ample networking time. The symposium aims to build a bridge between generations of cryosphere and climate scientists. Use this opportunity to present and discuss your latest research in a stimulating environment. We invite Early Career Scientists interested in participating to apply for a travel grant – don't miss this opportunity!

The Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL announces that the registration to the above mentioned symposium in the memory of our past Director, Koni Steffen, is now open.

Konrad Steffen – or Koni, as everyone knew him – was a passionate researcher and teacher, who dedicated his life to science through the study of the cryosphere and the climate of cold environments. Koni was driven by the mission of informing about the ongoing, rapid human-driven changes and the resulting impacts on human and natural systems these changes could impose. This scientific symposium will honour Koni’s scientific legacy, covering a wide range of topics, including the study of Arctic sea ice, the dynamics of polar ice sheets, the quantification of climate-driven ice losses in Antarctica and Greenland, the effects of melting ice on global sea level, as well as more generally the impacts of climate change on polar and high mountain environments. By bringing together long-term colleagues that accompanied Koni over the years and early-career researchers that have recently embarked in the related disciplines, the event will aim at building a bridge between generations of cryosphere and climate scientists – a task in which Koni excelled.

The program will consist of invited talks, posters sessions (based on submitted abstracts) and ample networking time. A conference dinner will be organised in the evening of the Day 1.

Webinars and Virtual Events
2021-10-21
Online: 11:00 am - 12:00 pm AKDT, 3:00-4:00 pm EDT

The Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC) announces their next IARPC Public Webinar Series event, An Introduction to Polar Cyberinfrastructure (CI) at the National Science Foundation (NSF).

The term “Polar Cyberinfrastructure” can feel like esoteric jargon, can maybe be a bit of a mouthful, and can mean a lot of different things to the research community. In addition to the big facilities and fancy supercomputers, Polar CI aims to serve the full breadth of NSF-funded polar researchers. In this webinar, the NSF Polar Cyberinfrastructure Program Officer (Allen Pope) will explain what Polar CI means at NSF and introduce the core program as well as related opportunities within NSF at the intersection of polar science and computing. The webinar will also share highlights from some NSF-funded polar cyberinfrastructure projects and will finish with ample time for audience question and answer session.

Preregistration is not required. Please follow the link above for the webinar link.

Webinars and Virtual Events
Speaking: Rick Thoman, Alaska Center for Climate Assessment & Policy (ACCAP)
2021-10-22
Online: 12:00-1:00 pm AKDT, 4:00-5:00 pm EDT

The tools and techniques for making monthly and season scale climate forecasts are rapidly changing, with the potential to provide useful forecasts at the month and longer range. We will review recent climate conditions around Alaska, review some forecast tools and finish up the Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for November and early winter season. Join the gathering online to learn more about Alaska climate and weather.

Please follow the link above to register.

Webinars and Virtual Events
2021-10-24 - 2021-10-29
Online

The 2021 Regional Conference on Permafrost will be a completely virtual meeting from October 24-29, 2021. We will use exciting virtual platforms and this type of venue will allow for international and underserved researchers and engineers to attend and present. A variety of events are planned from Young Researcher events to oral and poster presentations and unique networking opportunities.


Organizers of the 2021 Regional Conference on Permafrost (RCOP) request abstract submissions by August 9, 2021.

For the first time the U.S. Permafrost Association hosted Regional Conference on Permafrost will be combined with the bi-annual International Conference on Cold Regions Engineering. RCOPs are convened by the International Permafrost Association (IPA) as part of their motto to "foster permafrost research to the ends of earth". The Conference will bring together international participants through an all virtual platform.

Session proposals address science and/or engineering topics with a focus on permafrost and cold regions. Organizers encourage equity, diversity, and inclusion in all conference aspects and seek presentations from varied teams representing as broad a perspective as possible.

Please visit the abstract submission page to learn more about sessions and the submission process.

Webinars and Virtual Events
2021-10-25
Online: 11:00 am - 12:00 pm AKDT, 3:00-4:00 pm EDT

Join the National Science Foundation's Office of Polar Programs Arctic Science Section for a virtual office hour to share program updates with the Arctic research community. This webinar will introduce new staff, highlight upcoming funding opportunities, and provide updates about the program's approach to mitigating the impacts of COVID-19.

NSF staff who will be joining include Rainer Amon, Renee Crain, Sara Eckert, Colene Haffke, Erica Hill, Olivia Lee, Allen Pope, Jennifer Mercer, Frank Rack, Xoco Shinbrot, Randall Sisco, Marc Stieglitz, Colleen Strawhacker, and Beverly Walker.

For more information, please follow the link above.

Webinars and Virtual Events
Speaking: Mark Bertram, Supervisory Wildlife Biologist, Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge
2021-10-26
Online: 10:00-11:00 am AKDT, 2:00-3:00 pm EDT

Mark Bertram, supervisory wildlife biologist for the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge will guide you through the impacts of climatic change on resources in the Yukon Flats Basin. Extending 220 miles east-west along the Arctic Circle, the Basin lies between the Brooks Range to the north and the limestone peaks of the White Mountains to the south. The Yukon River bisects the Basin and contributes to the vast floodplain of lakes, ponds, and streams that dominate the landscape. The Basin, encompassed by the 11.1-million-acre Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge, provides critical habitat to world-renowned breeding populations of waterfowl, salmon and whitefish fisheries, and other important subsistence resources for over 1,200 local residents.

Please follow the link above for more information and to register.

Webinars and Virtual Events
Speaking: Jessica Cherry NOAA NWS
2021-10-26
Online: 11:00-11:30 am AKDT, 3:00-3:30 pm EDT

Part of the NOAA in Alaska and the Arctic seminar series hosted by NOAA NCEI Regional Climate Services Director, Alaska Region and the NOS Science Seminar Series.

Remote Access

Register here:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3774624935737684492

After registering, you will receive an email with a login link.

Abstract

Hydrologic forecasting in Alaska is challenging due largely to the sparse observational network of year-round, accurate precipitation and discharge gages. This problem is being addressed by creative new work in remote sensing and alternative gage technologies. Community-based monitoring is filling other important gaps. This talk will discuss these and possible future approaches to monitoring and forecasting hydrologic responses to temperature and precipitation on a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales.

Bio

TBD.

Webinars and Virtual Events
Speaking: Eugene Petrescu, NOAA NWS Alaska Region
2021-10-26
Online: 11:30 am - 12:00 pm AKDT, 3:30-4:00 pm EDT

Part of the NOAA in Alaska and the Arctic seminar series hosted by NOAA NCEI Regional Climate Services Director, Alaska Region and the NOS Science Seminar Series.

Remote Access

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3774624935737684492
Webinar ID: 797-720-179

Abstract

The National Weather Service Alaska Region provides environmental decision support services covering the state of Alaska and the adjacent oceanic regions from the Arctic to the Bering Sea, and North Pacific. Our services cover a broad range of activities including, Marine, Aviation, Public, Tsunami, and Hydrologic for the present time out to 2 years. An overview of Alaska Region NWS offices, operations, and specific service examples will be presented.

Bio

Eugene Petrescu - Gene is the Regional Scientist for NOAA NWS Alaska Region, and the Director of the Arctic Testbed and Proving. After being a weather forecaster in the US Air Force, Gene joined the National Weather Service in Anchorage in 1990. Since that time, he worked for the NWS at the Glasgow and Seattle Offices as a Forecaster, then at the Glasgow and Missoula NWS Offices as the Science and Operations Officer. In 2008, Gene came back to Alaska as the Science and Operations Officer of the Alaska Aviation Weather Unit. In 2010, he came to Alaska Region Headquarters as a Techniques Development Meteorologist, and became the Regional Scientist in 2012.

Webinars and Virtual Events
2021-10-26 - 2021-10-28
Online: 8:00 am - 12:30 am AKDT, 12:00-4:30 pm EDT

ADAC, in support of the Alaska and Arctic Maritime Communications and Connectivity Analysis Project (AAMC&CA) Project Team, invites you to participate in a Maritime Communications and Connectivity Virtual Assessment.

This Virtual Assessment will consist of presentations on communications challenges and future uses for increased connectivity along with Industry participation in highlighting emerging technologies. The Virtual Assessment will include liberal use of virtual breakout groups to discuss near-term, mid-term, and long-term technologies and identify connectivity transition, utilization, and integration strategies and pathways. The Arctic Domain Awareness Center and the Alaska and Arctic Maritime Communications and Connectivity Analysis Project team look forward to your participation in this event as we seek to identify and further explore the current and future communications needs of Alaskan and Arctic operators and the key technologies with the potential to serve those needs in the future. This Virtual Assessment will be hosted via Zoom. The Zoom meeting information is included in the Agenda.

Webinars and Virtual Events
Speaking: Trish Quinn, NOAA PMEL; Allison Moon, Lucia Upchurch, Derek Coffman, Jim Johnson, Tim Bates, and Betsy Andrews, NOAA PMEL
2021-10-27
Online: 11:00-11:30 am AKDT, 3:00-3:30 pm EDT

Part of the NOAA in Alaska and the Arctic seminar series hosted by NOAA NCEI Regional Climate Services Director, Alaska Region and the NOS Science Seminar Series.

Full title: Long Term Trends in Aerosol Chemical and Optical Properties Measured at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory Northeast of Utqiaġvik

Remote Access

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5043028146609925132
Webinar ID: 728-771-387

Abstract

Measurements of aerosol chemical composition at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory northeast of Utqiavik, Alaska have been conducted since 1997 to assess the impacts of the transport of pollutants from lower latitudes on Arctic atmospheric chemistry and climate. These measurements have been conducted alongside NOAA GML's observations of aerosol optical properties. Here we report on trends in Arctic haze aerosols in terms of composition, optical properties, and transport pathways. Between 1998 and 2013, haze season submicron non-sea salt sulfate and nitrate decreased by 2 and 1% per year, respectively. Supermicron nitrate decreased by 3% per year. Between 1998 and 2020, haze season submicron aerosol light scattering decreased by 1.6% per year and total scattering (particles less than 10 microns in diameter) decreased by 1.1% per year. Aerosol light absorption has also decreased during the haze season. Based on trajectories calculated with HYSPLIT, these decreasing trends appear to be due, at least in part, to a decrease in transport from the European sector to the Arctic. Summertime trends will also be discussed.

Bio

TrishQuinn (patricia.k.quinn [at] noaa.gov) is the Atmospheric ChemistryGroup (ACG) Lead at NOAA PMEL. The Atmospheric Chemistry Group has been makingshipboard measurements of aerosol chemical, microphysical, optical, andcloud-nucleating properties for over 30 years. The resulting global ocean database can be found at https://saga.pmel.noaa.gov/data/. ACG has also made long-termmeasurements of aerosol composition at NOAA's northern hemisphere monitoringsites including Barrow. These data can be found at https://saga.pmel.noaa.gov/data/stations

Webinars and Virtual Events
Speaking: Hajo Eicken, International Arctic Research Center, UAF, Craig Chythlook, Indigenous Liaison, Food Security Working Group
2021-10-27
Online: 11:30 am - 12:00 pm AKDT, 3:30-4:00 pm EDT

Part of the NOAA in Alaska and the Arctic seminar series hosted by NOAA NCEI Regional Climate Services Director, Alaska Region and the NOS Science Seminar Series.

Full title: Supporting the Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON) Roadmap for Arctic Observing & Data Systems and US AON: The RNA CoObs Project

Remote Access

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5043028146609925132
Webinar ID: 728-771-387

Abstract

The Research Network Activities for Sustained Coordinated Observations of Arctic Change (RNA CoObs) project seeks to support the Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON) Roadmap for Arctic Observing & Data Systems (ROADS). Through meetings, collaborations, and partnership with the Arctic Observing Summit (AOS) Food Security Working Group (FSWG) and other partners, the project will step through the elements of ROADS, including the identification of Shared Arctic Variables tied to societal benefits as defined by the FSWG, the capture of requirements for observing activities aimed at SAVs, and the design and adaption of information infrastructure. With a focus on the Pacific Arctic the project is meant to help explore and demonstrate how an internationally coordinated roadmap for Arctic observing can be put into action. A number of NOAA Alaska/Arctic activities are of relevance in this context, including NOAA's leadership in regional ocean observing, the U.S. Arctic Observing Network, and the Distributed Biological Observatory. The food security observing roadmap will guide observing activities in the Pacific Arctic and inform the ROADS process at the pan-Arctic scale. ROADS will then better serve operators, the research community, and decision-makers in their own efforts.

Bio

Hajo Eicken is Professor of Geophysics and Director of the International Arctic Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. His research focuses on sea ice geophysics, Arctic coastal processes, and their importance for human activities and ecosystems. In Alaska he has helped lead efforts to advance collaborative research with Indigenous knowledge holders and to enhance use of scientific data by Arctic communities and government agencies. He worked with a number of colleagues to establish a sea-ice observatory at Utqiavik/Pt. Barrow. Other collaborative efforts include his involvement in helping launch the Arctic Sea Ice Outlook and Sea Ice Prediction Network, co-leadership of the Arctic Observing Summit, and member of the Science Advisory Board for the 3rd Arctic Science Ministerial.

Webinars and Virtual Events
2021-10-27
Online: 10:30-11:30 am AKDT, 2:30-3:30 pm EDT

The National Science Foundation (NSF) will be hosting an informational webinar for the Coastlines and People Hubs for Research and Broadening Participation (CoPe) solicitation (NSF 21-613).

The webinar will include time for questions about the current CoPe solicitation, with proposals due on 6 December 2021.

Webinars and Virtual Events
2021-10-28 - 2021-10-29
Online

PaloHack is a free, virtual event organized by LinkedEarth, supported by the US National Science Foundation, aiming to build capacity in the analysis of paleoclimate timeseries. PaleoHack leverages the emerging data standard LiPD (Linked Paleo Data) and associated software ecosystem in Python. The event is aimed at early-career researchers, but we welcome participants of all career stages within the limits of available seats (50, with priority given to US-based participants because of our funding source).

By the end of the hackathon, participants will be able to:

  • Understand the basics of paleo data structures
  • Manipulate these structures
  • Understand age model ensembles
  • Process paleo timeseries for analysis (e.g., binning, interpolation, detrending)
  • Apply spectral and wavelet analysis, with appropriate uncertainty quantification
  • Correlate a paleo timeseries to a climate field
  • Compare a paleo timeseries to climate simulations and reanalysis datasets
  • Generate publication-quality graphics

More details, including registration information, are available at the link above.

Webinars and Virtual Events
Speaking: Meredith Westington, Geographer, NOAA's Integrated Ocean and Coastal Mapping IOCM Program
2021-10-28
Online: 11:00-11:30 am AKDT, 3:00-3:30 pm EDT

Part of the NOAA in Alaska and the Arctic seminar series hosted by NOAA NCEI Regional Climate Services Director, Alaska Region and the NOS Science Seminar Series.

Full title: Introducing Seascape Alaska: A Regional Mapping Campaign in Support of the National Strategy for Ocean Mapping, Exploring, and Characterizing the U.S. EEZ

Remote Access

Register here:
https://noaabroadcast.adobeconnect.com/akandarctic102821/event/registra…

After registering, you will receive an email with a login link.

Abstract

Seascape Alaska is a regional campaign supporting the 2020 National Strategy for Mapping, Exploring, and Characterizing the United States Exclusive Economic Zone (NOMEC). Working toward a common goal to fully map the U.S. waters off Alaska, the campaign is a collaboration among federal, tribal, state, and non-governmental partners with a wide range of interests.

Bio

Meredith Westington is a geographer with NOAA's Integrated Ocean and Coastal Mapping Program. She has worked at NOAA's Office of Coast Survey for over 20 years. Meredith has a bachelor's degree in geology from Virginia Tech and a masters degree in GIS Management from Salisbury University.Slides / Recording: Slides and recording will likely be shared with all who register for the webinar.

Webinars and Virtual Events
Speaking: Muyin Wang, with NOAA/OAR Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
2021-10-28
Online: 11:30 am - 12:00 pm AKDT, 3:30-4:00 pm EDT

Part of the NOAA in Alaska and the Arctic seminar series hosted by NOAA NCEI Regional Climate Services Director, Alaska Region and the NOS Science Seminar Series.

Full title: Introducing Seascape Alaska: A Regional Mapping Campaign in Support of the National Strategy for Ocean Mapping, Exploring, and Characterizing the U.S. EEZ

Remote Access

Register here:
https://noaabroadcast.adobeconnect.com/akandarctic102821/event/registra…

After registering, you will receive an email with a login link.

Abstract

Seascape Alaska is a regional campaign supporting the 2020 National Strategy for Mapping, Exploring, and Characterizing the United States Exclusive Economic Zone (NOMEC). Working toward a common goal to fully map the U.S. waters off Alaska, the campaign is a collaboration among federal, tribal, state, and non-governmental partners with a wide range of interests.

Bio

Meredith Westington is a geographer with NOAA's Integrated Ocean and Coastal Mapping Program. She has worked at NOAA's Office of Coast Survey for over 20 years. Meredith has a bachelor's degree in geology from Virginia Tech and a masters degree in GIS Management from Salisbury University.Slides / Recording: Slides and recording will likely be shared with all who register for the webinar.

Webinars and Virtual Events
Speaking: Edmund Chang, Stony Brook University, Wanqiu Wang, NOAA/CPC, Di Chen, Stony Brook University, Yutong Pan, NOAA/CPC
2021-10-28
Online: 11:00-11:30 am AKDT, 3:00-3:30 pm EDT

Part of the NOAA in Alaska and the Arctic seminar series hosted by NOAA NCEI Regional Climate Services Director, Alaska Region and the NOS Science Seminar Series.

Remote Access

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4926113776693821452this link opens in a new window
Webinar ID: 902-953-659

Abstract

Extratropical cyclones give rise to most of the high impact weather near Alaska, including heavy precipitation and strong winds. Thus it is important for many stakeholders to be warned of approaching periods of increased or decreased potential of storm activities. While individual cyclone tracks can be predicted out to about a week or so, from week 2 on, statistics summarizing cyclone activity, or storminess, are more useful. Storminess can be defined based on Lagrangian cyclone tracking or by Eulerian variance statistics. The outlook includes a combination of both methods. Lagrangian cyclone tracks provide information about where cyclones pass through and are more intuitive to users, while Eulerian variance statistics are expected to be more predictable and have been shown to be highly correlated with cyclone related weather. The outlook uses 6-hrly sub-seasonal forecasts from GEFSv12 and CFSv2. Hindcasts and operational forecasts from 1999-2016 have been used to assess the prediction skill. Our results show that the combined ensemble has higher skill than either individual ensemble. The combined ensemble shows good skill in predicting cyclone amplitude and frequency for week 2, and some skill in predicting these metrics for weeks 3-4. Models also show some skill in predicting the statistics of deep cyclones for week 2. For both week 2 and weeks 3-4, the prediction skills for an Eulerian sea level pressure variance storminess metric is significantly higher than those for Lagrangian track statistics. We expect that the skills for real time forecasts should be higher than those in the hindcasts since the operational ensembles are much larger than the hindcast ensembles. A publicly accessible web page will be developed to display the subseasonal predictions in real time. The web page will also contain information on climatology and forecast verification to enable users to make more informed use of the outlook.

Bio

http://www.msrc.sunysb.edu/~chang/personal/Vita_brief.htm