2016 Sea Ice Outlook
June Report Available
Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN)
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
The report is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/june
For more information, please contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS
Email: betsy [at] arcus.org
The June report for the 2016 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available. The
SIO is an activity of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN,
http://www.arcus.org/sipn) as a contribution to the Study of
Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH,http://www.arcus.org/search-program).
The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal
time-scales. The complete report is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/june.
The organizers thank the groups that contributed to the 2016 June
report; 32 contributions (two of which are regional only) including
several new groups this year. This month's report was developed by lead
authors Julienne Stroeve (NSIDC) and Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth (UW),
with contributions from the rest of the SIPN Leadership Team
(https://www.arcus.org/sipn/leadership).
The median Outlook value for September 2016 sea ice extent is 4.28
million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.10 and 4.63 million square
kilometers. Contributions are based on a range of methods: statistical,
dynamical models, estimates based on trends, and two informal polls.
This year the spread in the Outlook contributions is not as large as
last year: the overall range is 3.40 to 5.23 million square kilometers,
compared to last year's spread of 3.3 to 5.7 million square kilometers.
The median Outlook value is also down from last year by more than
700,000 square kilometers. This year's forecast compares to observed
values of 4.3 million square kilometers in 2007, 3.6 million square
kilometers in 2012, and 4.63 million square kilometers in 2015. Only one
forecast suggests a new record low is possible, one ties with 2012,
while all others do not forecast a new record low for 2016.
This month's report also includes:
- A discussion about the 13 dynamical model contributions and their
variance, which is substantially less than last year; - A section on predicted spatial fields with discussion on sea ice
probability (SIP) and the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of
dynamical models; - A section on current conditions with discussion of this spring's
record low sea ice conditions, observations of sea ice thickness, and
atmospheric conditions; - Key statements from each individual Outlook; and
- Links to view or download the 32 Outlook contributions.
This is the first monthly SIO for the 2016 season. A call for
contributions for the July report will be announced via ArcticInfo and
the SIPN mailing list (http://www.arcus.org/sipn/mailing-list).
For more information, please contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS
Email: betsy [at] arcus.org
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