Sea Ice Prediction Network
The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) announces the release of the July Arctic Sea Ice Outlook. We received 35 contributions, surpassing last month’s record number of submissions! The submissions use a range of methods including statistical, numerical models, trend-based estimates, and subjective information. The median Outlook value for September 2015 sea ice extent is 5.0 million square kilometers (km2), which is the same as June’s prediction. The overall range is 3.3 to 5.7 million km2 (with the exception of one 0.98 km2 outlying estimate). This month’s report also includes a discussion about the 11 dynamical model contributions as well as sections on regional predictions and the current conditions of the sea ice.
The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) announces plans to convene a Sea Ice Prediction Workshop tentatively scheduled for 4-6 May 2016 at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University. This workshop will focus on sea ice prediction on sub-seasonal to inter-annual timescales. Organizers welcome participants with interests in research and operational forecasting. Forecast users are especially encouraged to attend. Outcomes of the meeting will include recommendations for the Sea Ice Outlook and other activities related to sea ice prediction. More specific meeting goals will be available closer to the event. To stay informed about this meeting, please subscribe to the SIPN mailing list. For questions, contact Betsy Turner-Bogren (betsy [at] arcus.org).
Registration is now available for a SIPN webinar entitled "Industry Needs for Seasonal and Sub-seasonal Sea Ice Information and Predictions." This webinar will provide a brief overview of contrasts and commonalities between sea ice variables relevant for geophysical or climate research and those relevant for operational needs in Arctic seas. It is scheduled for Tuesday, 11 August 2015 from 9:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. AKDT. For more information, contact Betsy Turner-Bogren at ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).
Igor Polyakov et al. seek public comment on a white paper summarizing the concept of an experimental program drafted by participants of an open workshop entitled "Observations of upper-ocean and sea-ice interactions in the eastern Arctic Ocean," which convened 24-25 April 2014. More information about the workshop is available here. The deadline for public comments is Friday, 24 July. Comments and questions should be directed to Igor Polyakov (igor [at] iarc.uaf.edu).
To download a pdf of the White Paper and an Executive Summary, please see Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) Related Efforts.
The Sea Ice Prediction Network announces a call for Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) contributions to the July report—based on May and June data. The Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas about the monthly September minimum sea ice extent. Join a growing network of sea ice experts and contribute a pan-Arctic, regional, or informal Outlook.
The 2015 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) - June Report received great media coverage by the Alaska Dispatch News. In an article, posted on 25 June, reporter Yareth Rosen provides a summary of the SIO goals and process, range of methods contributors used, links to Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) and associated agencies, and the June median outlook for sea ice extent in September -- converted to square miles (1.93 million square miles).
The SIPN 2014 Sea Ice Action Team members Julienne Stroeve, Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Virginie Guemas, Stephen Howell, François Massonnet, and Steffen Tietsche published a discussion of the 2014 Sea Ice Outlook and forecasting skill of models that predict the extent and other characteristics of Arctic sea ice cover. Their article "Improving Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent" is published in EOS.
Announcing the recent release of new IceBridge and CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness data sets for the 2015 spring season.
The NASA IceBridge Sea Ice Freeboard, Snow Depth, and Thickness Quick Look data set is an evaluation product containing derived geophysical data products retrieved over the Arctic sea ice cover.
The NASA CryoSat-2 Sea Ice Freeboard, Thickness, and Snow Depth Quick Look product is an experimental sea ice thickness data set containing derived geophysical data products retrieved over the Arctic sea ice cover.
The archive is now available for the 5 May 2015 Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) webinar "Observations of Arctic Snow and Sea Ice Thickness from Satellite and Airborne Surveys" presented by Nathan Kurtz, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The archive includes a video of the webinar, the presentation slides, and a list of webinar participants.
NSIDC announces availability of the MASIE-AMSR2 (MASAM2) daily 4 km sea ice concentration, which is a prototype concentration product offering greater accuracy and higher resolution in ice concentration fields used to initialize an operational sea ice forecast model. MASAM2 is a blend of two other daily sea ice data products: ice coverage from the Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (MASIE) product, at a 4 km grid cell size, and ice concentrations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) at a 10 km grid cell size. This prototype MASAM2 product currently covers July 2012 through mid-November 2014, but it will become a daily product if there is demand for such a product.
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Sea Ice Outlook June Report: We received a record 32 contributions using a range of methods including statistical, numerical models, trend-based estimates, and subjective information. The median Outlook value for September 2015 sea ice extent is 5.0 million square kilometers, and predictions fall in a range of 3.3 to 5.7 km2. This June report also includes a discussion about the 11 dynamical model contributions as well as sections on regional predictions and the current conditions of the sea ice.