Sea Ice Prediction Network

Networking scientists and stakeholders to improve sea ice prediction in a changing Arctic

Sea Ice Prediction Network

News

Sea Ice Outlook

Sample of SIP (i.e., ensemble mean SIE) in percent for a random year from CESM1.1.
5 August 2014

The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) announces a call for contributions to the August Sea Ice Outlook report. Please see the guidelines for submitting regional and pan-Arctic outlooks. A variety of perspectives, from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists, are welcome.

July Sea Ice Outlook

23 July 2014

Announcing the July Sea Ice Outlook report! We received 28 pan-Arctic contributions and three regional contributions. The median Outlook value for September 2014 sea ice extent is 4.8 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.4 and 5.0 million square kilometers. The report includes a brief executive summary, comments on modeling outlooks and on regional predictions, current conditions, and the individual Outlook contributions.

AGU Session

Photo by Ute Kaden (TREC 2005), Courtesy of ARCUS
14 July 2014

SIPN Team member Cecilia Bitz announces a call for abstracts for an AGU Session: Processes and Predictability (Session #2392). Presentations that examine the processes that govern seasonal to multidecadal polar climate variability, identify sources of polar climate predictability, and characterize uncertainty in polar climate prediction are welcome. The session seeks to connect the community of atmospheric, oceanic, and cryospheric scientists working on topics relevant to the new Polar Climate Predictability Initiative of the World Climate Research Program. It will convene during the AGU Fall Meetings in San Francisco 15-19 December 2014.

Sea Ice Outlook

Figure 1. Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook values (June Report) for September 2014 sea ice extent (values are rounded to the tenths).
19 June 2014

The first arctic Sea Ice Outlook report of the year has been published, and we had a record number of pan-arctic contributions! The median Outlook value for September 2014 sea ice extent is 4.7 million square kilometers. Only three outlooks this are above the 2013 observed September extent. This full report includes a brief summary, comments on modeling outlook, current conditions, key statements from all the Outlook contributions, and links to download the outlook contributions.

SIPN Team Members in the News

Sun bounces off of the sea ice on a clear sunny day in the Arctic. Aboard the USCGC Polar Sea icebreaker in the Beaufort Sea.
17 June 2014

SIPN Team members Stroeve, Hamiliton, Bitz, and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth published an analysis of the ensemble skill of the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008-2013 in predicting September Arctic sea ice extent. Their article is published in Geophysical Research Letters - 16 April 2014.

New Article on Sea Ice Predictions

Median and interquartile range of July SIO predictions, compared with observed September mean sea ice extent. Image courtesy of Stroeve et al. (2014)
16 June 2014

A new article by Larry Hamilton and others on the SIPN Team looks at the overall success of informal sea ice predictions contributed to the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). Their article was published in Witness the Arctic - Spring 2014.

New Data Available

Sea Ice
6 June 2014

A new sea ice thickness and snow depth product of the Arctic Ocean and the Beaufort and Chuckshi Seas is available from NSIDC. The 2014 quicklook data product is available here. The March 2014 CryoSat-2 data product is available here. Data collected on 28 April 2014 are forthcoming.

Sea Ice Outlook

Figure 5. Distribution of 2013 Sea Ice Outlook predictions by method and month
15 May 2014

The Sea Ice Prediction Network announces the launch of the 2014 Sea Ice Outlook season with the first call for contributions! Join a growing network of sea ice experts and contribute your pan-arctic or regional Outlook for the first report to be published in June.

Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook

Photo by Maggie Prevenas - PolarTREC/ARCUS
21 April 2014

The Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO), a product of the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH) and part of SIPN, has launched the 2014 season with weekly reports that combine forecasts, remote sensing data, and local observations for the Northern Bering Sea and southern Chukchi Sea regions of Alaska.

Photo by Jeff Peneston (PolarTREC 2008/2009), Courtesy of ARCUSPhoto by Jeff Peneston (PolarTREC 2008/2009), Courtesy of ARCUS

Background

  • Decline in the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice is an active area of scientific effort and one with significant implications for ecosystems and communities in the Arctic and globally.

  • Forecasting for seasonal timescales (i.e., the summer and into fall) is of particular interest to many stakeholders since many activities that take place in the arctic are planned over the summer months, and many species are sensitive to the behavior of summer sea ice.

  • However, seasonal forecasting is particularly challenging due to the variable nature of weather and ocean behavior over that timescale as well as current limits to data and modeling capabilities.

  • SIPN builds and expands on the Sea Ice Outlook project.

The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN)—to be launched over the fall 2013—will develop a collaborative network of scientists and stakeholders to advance research on sea ice prediction and communicate sea ice knowledge and tools.

Project Objectives

  1. Coordinate and evaluate activities to predict sea ice
  2. Integrate, assess and guide observations
  3. Synthesize predictions and observations
  4. Disseminate predictions and engage key stakeholders

Project Summary from original proposal (PDF - 76 KB)

Mailing List

To receive announcements about SIPN, subscribe to our email list here.
We will be developing this website and announcing activities in the coming months.

Join the Network

We are also inviting project collaborators and network participants at this time. Action Teams will be formed around the project objectives and will provide opportunities for collaboration. If you are interested in participating in the network—through participation in an action team, modeling/prediction activities, as a data provider, or as a stakeholder—you can join the network by emailing any member of the Network Team or by filling out the interest form at the bottom of this page.

Join the Network!

Network Leadership Team


Funding