By: Betsy Turner-Bogren, Project Manager, Arctic Research Consortium of the US
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) is a network of US and international members working to advance research on the processes driving sea-ice predictability, prediction products, and the communication of findings to interested stakeholders. SIPN2 is funded by NSF-Arctic Sciences Section and the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), with several collaborators and partners.
The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas and predictions for Arctic ice extent, sea-ice probability, ice-free date, and other variables. In 2021, the SIO monthly reports produced in June, July, August, and September contained a variety of perspectives on Arctic sea ice—from observations of current conditions, to advanced numerical models, to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists.
In response to discussion during the 2021 SIO Contributors Forum, three new items were added to 2021 SIO solicitations, including contributions of pan-Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies, which was motivated by the large spread in SIO predictions of mean September sea-ice extent; contributions to a new SIO monthly report for September (based on May, June, July, and August data); and contributions of sea-ice advance dates to the August report.
The SIPN2 Project Team hosted two webinars during the 2021 SIO season:
- Mitch Bushuk presented "Prospects for Improved Regional Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice" on 13 July, providing an overview of a newly developed dynamical seasonal prediction system and its performance in predicting regional Arctic sea-ice conditions.
- SIPN2 Project Team members provided a Post-Season Review and Discussion of the 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) on 11 October. This event included an overview of observed conditions during the 2021 Arctic sea-ice retreat season, a summary of skill of 2021 SIO extent and sea-ice probability forecasts, and an overview of lessons learned. Open discussion followed each of the three presentations. An archive of the presentation slides and a recording of the event is available on the webinar webpage.
More information can be found on the Sea Ice Outlook webpages.
For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).
About the Author
Betsy Turner-Bogren is a Project Manager at ARCUS who provides staff support to the SIPN2 project and its team members. She also manages the NSF-supported publications, Witness the Arctic and Witness Community Highlights.