Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

For further information and to view the Pan-Arctic and Regional reports,
please go to:

Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, SEARCH Project Office, ARCUS
Email: helen [at]

The July SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook reports are now available! The
Pan-Arctic Summary, Full Pan-Arctic Outlook, and Regional Outlook are
available at:

With 21 pan-Arctic responses, the July Sea Ice Outlook projects a
September 2013 Arctic mean sea ice extent median value of 4.0 million
square kilometers, with quartiles of 3.8 and 4.6 million square
kilometers. The range of estimates was 3.2 to 5.9 million square
kilometers. For comparison, the June 2013 median was 4.1 million square
kilometers and the July median from 2012 was 4.6 million square
kilometers. Thus the data from 2012 and recent estimates of thinning sea
ice appear to have an impact in lowering Outlook estimates. As in 2012,
sea ice thinning and not just anomalous weather should contribute to
September 2013 sea ice loss.

Individual responses continue to be based on a range of methods:
statistical, numerical models, comparison with previous rates of sea ice
loss, estimates based on various non-sea ice datasets and trends, and
subjective information (i.e., the "heuristic" category). This month, the
Outlook report also includes a graph comparing Sea Ice Outlook
predictions by method and month (between June and July).

In addition to the 21 pan-Arctic Outlooks, we have 5 regional Outlooks
that provide more detail for the Northwest Passage, Arctic Bridge
(Hudson Bay / Hudson Strait), Laptev-Kara-Barents-Greenland Seas,
Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and Nares Strait.

The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook produces monthly reports throughout the
summer that synthesize projections of the expected sea ice minimum at
pan-Arctic and regional scales. For background on the Sea Ice Outlook,

Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, SEARCH Project Office, ARCUS
Email: helen [at]

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