The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) is a network of US and international members working to advance research on the processes driving sea-ice predictability, prediction products, and the communication of findings to interested stakeholders. SIPN2 is funded by NSF-Arctic Sciences Section and the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), with several collaborators and partners.
The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas and predictions for Arctic ice extent, sea-ice probability, ice-free date, and other variables. In 2021, the SIO will produce monthly reports in June, July, August, and September that contain a variety of perspectives on Arctic sea ice—from observations of current conditions, to advanced numerical models, to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. A post-season interim and/or final report will be developed after the sea-ice retreat season has concluded
For the 2021 June report, 38 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, eight also included predictions for pan-Antarctic, seven included predictions for the Alaska Region, and 14 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes new discussions on Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies, SIO contributor motivations, and the emerging pattern in the Sea Ice Outlooks. For the pan-Arctic, the median June Outlook value for September 2021 sea-ice extent is 4.37 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.07 and 4.61 million square kilometers. The median is close to the 2020 June Outlook, of 4.33 million square kilometers.
The SIPN2 Project Team hosted a virtual forum on 21 and 22 January 2021 for SIO Contributors to share information about sea-ice forecast methods, discuss related challenges, and identify activities and products that could advance forecasting skill. Participation was by invitation only and limited to individuals who recently submitted forecasts to the SIO. Sessions were held in the morning (Pacific time) on both days, and in the evening on the first day (Pacific time) to facilitate participation with colleagues in both European and east Asian time zones. The meeting included a mix of pre-recorded presentations, plenary and lightning talks, and breakout group discussions. Participants shared and discussed successes and challenges in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice prediction, identified future activities to improve seasonal prediction, and recommended future collaboration and networking activities.
The SIPN2 Project Team will host a webinar entitled, "Prospects for Improved Regional Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice," on 13 July 2021. Presented by Mitch Bushuk, this webinar will provide an overview of a newly developed dynamical seasonal prediction system and its performance in predicting regional Arctic sea-ice conditions. For further information and to register, see: Prospects for Improved Regional Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice.