Meeting
2016 SIPN Workshop
Presentation Type
plenary
Presentation Theme
Predictions and Dynamical Predictive Systems II
Abstract Authors

James Carton, University of Maryland, carton [at] atmos.umd.edu
Guillaume Vernieres, NASA/GSFC , guillaume.vernieres-1 [at] nasa.gov
Richard Cullather, UNIV OF MARYLAND , richard.cullather [at] nasa.gov
Bin Zhao, NASA/GSFC , bin.zhao [at] nasa.gov
Gennady Chepurin, University of Maryland, chepurin [at] atmos.umd.edu

Abstract

Here we assess seasonal analyses and forecasts of sea ice and Arctic hydrographic conditions produced by the successful NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) sea ice forecasting system, and in part driven by the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2). The GMAO GEOS-5 ocean and sea ice models are built on a 0.5ox0.5o resolution ocean model with GFDL MOM V4 numerics and CICE V5 sea ice. The ocean hydrography is updated from a historical data base using an ensemble OI scheme with a 10-day data window. Assimilated data includes SST, hydrography. An updating scheme for sea ice relies on gridded passive microwave estimates of concentration. Independent comparison data sets include ice thickness, and drift, as well as the WHOI ice-tethered profiler data. In the first part of this talk we examine the historical Arctic Ocean hydrographic and sea ice properties, focusing on the past decade. Our goal is to understand the connection between sea ice changes, changing weather conditions, and the contribution of changing near-surface heat flux. In the second part of the talk we present results from an examination of the seasonal forecasts.

Time
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