Season Overview and Tentative Schedule Available
2020 Sea Ice Outlook
Sea Ice Prediction Network—Phase 2 (SIPN2)
For questions,contact
Betsy Turner-Bogren
Email: betsy [at] arcus.org
The Sea Ice Prediction Network—Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces plans for the 2020 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) season. Further details will be provided in the June Call for Contributions that will be circulated in late May.
The 2020 SIO will include calls for contributions to the regular June, July, and August monthly reports. In addition to the monthly reports there will be two post-season reports: an interim report published in mid-October and a final report to be published in early 2021.
We encourage all past contributors to submit Outlooks this year and welcome new participants. Your participation in the Sea Ice Outlook is always much appreciated and is especially valued this year during the COVID-19-related disruptions to both personal and professional life.
Regular Montly Reports
The regular monthly reports synthesize predictions for the September monthly average extent of Arctic sea ice as well as Alaskan regional sea ice extent. Additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). Submissions that include spatial forecast maps are also encouraged. Contributors are invited to submit files such as sea ice probability, first ice-free day, sea ice concentration, and sea ice thickness.
For those interested, there will be an option for additional submissions of regional outlooks including: ice advance and ice retreat dates for Hudson Bay; and, for 2020, the September sea ice concentration in Fram Strait, which offers an opportunity to investigate predictability in the region where the MOSAiC cruise is expected at that time.
The 2020 SIO will also accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean. Additionally, we encourage submissions to the associated effort of the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx, 2017-2020)
Informal Contributions
In addition to the contributions for the monthly reports, we will also accept "informal contributions" throughout the season that do not otherwise fit into the monthly report format. These informal contributions could include information on sea ice observations and other parameters and/or for other time periods than those included in the regular monthly reports. Informal contributions will be accepted via email sent to sio2020 [at] arcus.org.
SUBMISSION PROCESS:
Required core information for Pan-Arctic Outlook projections using dynamical model, statistical, heuristic, and mixed methods will be collected via an online form. Details about the submission form will be provided in the June Call for Contributions that will be sent in late May.
We strongly encourage all participants whose methods provide information at the local scale to provide full spatial fields via the SIPN Data Portal so we can compute metrics such as sea ice probability and first ice-free day for you, as well as additional regional analysis for the Sea Ice Outlook.
Please see the tentative schedule of the 2020 SIO monthly reports below.
More information will be available on the SIO webpage once details are finalized.
For questions,contact
Betsy Turner-Bogren
Email: betsy [at] arcus.org
TENTATIVE SCHEDULE FOR 2020 SIO MONTHLY REPORTS
JUNE REPORT: (Based on May data)
- 22 May 2020 (Friday): Call for Contributions for June Report
- 10 June 2020 (Wednesday): Contributions Due for June Report
- 23 June 2020 (Tuesday): June Report Released
JULY REPORT: (Based on May and June data)
- 29 June 2020 (Monday): Call for Contributions for July Report
- 13 July 2020 (Monday): Contributions Due for July Report
- 24 July 2020 (Friday): July Report Released
AUGUST REPORT: (Based on May, June, and July data)
- 31 July 2020 (Friday): Call for Contributions for August Report
- 12 August 2020 (Wednesday): Contributions Due for August Report
- 26 August 2020 (Wednesday): August Report Released
POST-SEASON INTERIM REPORT:
- Focus on performance of Outlooks as compared to sea ice minimum
- Developed following the conclusion of the retreat season
- Published in mid-October 2020
POST-SEASON FINAL REPORT:
- Analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent during the 2020 melt season
- Initial content developed through December 2020
- Bulk of content and figures developed after AGU 2020 meetings (mid- to late-January 2021)
- Published late February 2021