Season Overview and Tentative Schedule: 2019 Sea Ice Outlook

Date: 
13 May 2019

Season Overview and Tentative Schedule
2019 Sea Ice Outlook
Sea Ice Prediction Network—Phase 2 (SIPN2)

For questions, contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren
Email: betsy [at] arcus.org


The Sea Ice Prediction Network—Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces plans for the 2019 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) season. Further details will be provided in the June Call for Contributions that will be circulated in late May.

2019 SIO will include calls for contributions to the regular June, July, and August monthly reports. In addition to the monthly reports there will be two post-season reports: an interim report published in mid-October and a final report to be published in early 2020. We encourage all past contributors to submit Outlooks this year and welcome new participants

Regular Monthly Reports

The regular monthly reports synthesize predictions for the September monthly average extent of Arctic sea ice as well as Alaskan regional sea ice extent. Additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). Submissions that include spatial forecast maps are also encouraged. The 2019 SIO will also accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean.

Informal Contributions

In addition to the contributions for the monthly reports, we are also accepting "informal contributions" throughout the season that do not otherwise fit into the monthly report format. These informal contributions could include information on sea ice observations and parameters other than extent and/or for other time periods than those included in the regular monthly reports. Informal contributions will be accepted via email sent to sio2019 [at] arcus.org.

Submission Process:

Required core information for Pan-Arctic Outlook projections using dynamical model, statistical, heuristic, and mixed methods will be collected via an online web form. Details about the submission form will be provided in the June Call for Contributions.

We strongly encourage all participants whose methods provide information at the local scale to provide full spatial fields via the SIPN Data Portal (https://atmos.uw.edu/sipn/), so we can compute metrics such as sea ice probability and first ice-free day for you, as well as additional regional analysis for the Sea Ice Outlook.

Please see the tentative schedule of the 2019 SIO monthly reports below.

More information will be available on the SIO webpage once details are finalized.

For questions, contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren
Email: betsy [at] arcus.org

TENTATIVE SCHEDULE FOR 2019 SIO MONTHLY REPORTS

JUNE REPORT: (Based on May data)
- 20 May 2019 (Monday): Call for Contributions for June Report
- 12 June 2019 (Wednesday): Contributions Due for June Report
- 21 June 2019 (Friday): June Report Released

JULY REPORT: (Based on May and June data)
- 28 June 2019 (Friday): Call for Contributions for July Report
- 12 July 2019 (Friday): Contributions Due for July Report
- 22 July 2019 (Monday): July Report Released

AUGUST REPORT: (Based on May, June, and July data)
- 29 July 2019 (Monday): Call for Contributions for August Report
- 14 August 2019 (Wednesday): Contributions Due for August Report
- 23 August 2019 (Friday): August Report Released

POST-SEASON INTERIM REPORT:
- Focus on performance of Outlooks as compared to sea ice minimum.
- Developed following the conclusion of the retreat season.
- Published in mid-October 2019.

POST-SEASON FINAL REPORT:
- Analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent during the 2019 melt season.
- Initial content developed late October thru early November 2018.
- Bulk of content and figures developed after AGU 2019 meetings (mid- to late-January 2020).
- Published late February 2020.