2013 Sea Ice Outlook: June Reports Available

16 June 2013

Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

For further information and to view the Pan-Arctic and Regional reports,
please go to: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2013/june

Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, SEARCH Project Office, ARCUS
Email: helen@arcus.org

The June SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook reports are now available! The
Pan-Arctic Summary, Full Pan-Arctic Outlook, and Regional Outlook are
available at: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2013/june.

With 23 pan-arctic Outlook contributions, an increase over the last two
years, the June Sea Ice Outlook projects a September 2013 arctic sea
extent (defined as the monthly average for September) median value of
4.1 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 3.8 and 4.4 million
square kilometers.

The consensus is for an increasing downward trend of September sea ice
extent. We interpret the split of 2013 Outlooks above and below the 4.1
median to different interpretations of the guiding physics: those who
considered that observed sea ice extent in 2012 being well below the 4.1
level indicates a shift in arctic conditions, especially with regard to
reduced sea ice thickness and increased sea ice mobility; and those with
estimates above 4.1 who support a return to the longer-term downward
trend line (1979-2007). It is always important to note for context that
all estimates are well below the 1979-2007 September mean of 6.7 million
square kilometers. This month's report includes details on the causes of
the 2012 minimum, the use of sea ice volume versus extent, sea ice in
climate models, and late spring 2013 conditions.

In addition to the 23 pan-arctic Outlooks, we have four regional
Outlooks that provide more detail for the Northwest Passage, the Arctic
Bridge (Hudson Bay / Hudson Strait), Nares Strait and the Lincoln Sea,
and the Greenland and Barents Seas.

This is the first monthly SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook for the 2013 season; a
call for contributions for the July report will be announced via
ArcticInfo and the Sea Ice Outlook mailing list (see:

The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook produces monthly reports throughout the
summer that synthesize projections of the expected sea ice minimum at
pan-arctic and regional scales. For background on the Sea Ice Outlook,
see: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/background.

Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, SEARCH Project Office, ARCUS
Email: helen@arcus.org

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