Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
For further information and to view the Pan-Arctic and Regional reports,
please go to: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2013/june
Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, SEARCH Project Office, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
The June SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook reports are now available! The
Pan-Arctic Summary, Full Pan-Arctic Outlook, and Regional Outlook are
available at: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2013/june.
With 23 pan-arctic Outlook contributions, an increase over the last two
years, the June Sea Ice Outlook projects a September 2013 arctic sea
extent (defined as the monthly average for September) median value of
4.1 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 3.8 and 4.4 million
square kilometers.
The consensus is for an increasing downward trend of September sea ice
extent. We interpret the split of 2013 Outlooks above and below the 4.1
median to different interpretations of the guiding physics: those who
considered that observed sea ice extent in 2012 being well below the 4.1
level indicates a shift in arctic conditions, especially with regard to
reduced sea ice thickness and increased sea ice mobility; and those with
estimates above 4.1 who support a return to the longer-term downward
trend line (1979-2007). It is always important to note for context that
all estimates are well below the 1979-2007 September mean of 6.7 million
square kilometers. This month's report includes details on the causes of
the 2012 minimum, the use of sea ice volume versus extent, sea ice in
climate models, and late spring 2013 conditions.
In addition to the 23 pan-arctic Outlooks, we have four regional
Outlooks that provide more detail for the Northwest Passage, the Arctic
Bridge (Hudson Bay / Hudson Strait), Nares Strait and the Lincoln Sea,
and the Greenland and Barents Seas.
This is the first monthly SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook for the 2013 season; a
call for contributions for the July report will be announced via
ArcticInfo and the Sea Ice Outlook mailing list (see:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/list).
The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook produces monthly reports throughout the
summer that synthesize projections of the expected sea ice minimum at
pan-arctic and regional scales. For background on the Sea Ice Outlook,
see: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/background.
Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, SEARCH Project Office, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
ArcticInfo is administered by the Arctic Research Consortium of the
United States (ARCUS). Please visit us on the World Wide Web at:
http://www.arcus.org/
At any time you may:
Subscribe or unsubscribe by using the web form located at:
http://www.arcus.org/arcticinfo/subscription.html
To be removed from the list at any time send an email to:
arcticinfo-unsub [at] arcus.org
To resubscribe send an email to:
arcticinfo-sub [at] arcus.org
Subscribers to ArcticInfo will automatically receive the newsletter,
Witness the Arctic.If you would prefer not to receive Witness the Arctic,
specify on the web form.
Subscribe and unsubscribe actions are automatic. Barring mail system
failure you should receive responses from our system as confirmation to
your requests.
If you have information you would like to post to the mailing list send
the message to: list [at] arcus.org
You can search back issues of ArcticInfo by content or date at:
http://www.arcus.org/arcticinfo/arcticinfo_search.html
If you have any questions please contact the list administrator at:
list [at] arcus.org
ARCUS
3535 College Road, Suite 101
Fairbanks, AK 99709-3710
907-474-1600
907-474-1604 (fax)
ArcticInfo is funded by the National Science Foundation as a service to
the research community through Cooperative Agreement ARC-0618885 with
ARCUS. Any information, opinions, findings, and conclusions or
recommendations expressed in this material are those of the information
sources and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science
Foundation or ARCUS.