Analysis and Attribution of Changes in Siberian Hydroclimate and Implications for the Future

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Overview

This work will document observed changes in the hydroclimatology of the Siberian region, attribute these changes to specific physical mechanisms in the context of climate change, and study the impact of those changes from the regional to the hemispheric weather and climate. The project will use observational analysis and modeling experiments to investigate the links between arctic sea ice trends and changes to seasonal snow cover. The autumn snow cover is of particular interest due to its persistent increases over the last two decades despite the robust warming trend and its connection to stratosphere- troposphere coupling and hemispheric variability in the subsequent winter season.

*This project is funded is through a National Science Foundation OPP-ARC grant. It is included with the CSAS projects because it has a strong seasonality focus and is closely aligned with this group of funded projects.

Members

Principal Investigator

Judah Cohen

Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.

Cohen - link to SAM contact for fixing fields.

Principal Investigator

Cherry - link to SAM contact for fixing fields.

Principal Investigator

Mathew Barlow

University of Massachusetts Lowell

Barlow - link to SAM contact for fixing fields.

Co-Principal Investigator

Photo

Vladimir Alexeev

UAF

Alexeev - link to SAM contact for fixing fields.
Resources

Journal Publications

Alexeev, V.A., I.N. Esau, I.V. Polyakov, S.J. Byam, and S.Sorokina (2011), "Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming from observed data and reanalysis products", Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0192-8.

Jones, J. and J. Cohen (2011), "Climatology of strong polar anticyclonic activity", J. Climate, 24, 2599-2611.

Roberts, A., J. Cherry, R. Doscher, S. Elliot, L. Sushama (2011), "Exploring the Potential for Arctic Systems Modeling", Bulletin of the American Met. Soc., 92, doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS2959.1.

Cherry, J.E., S. Walker, N. Fresco, S. Trainor, and A. Tidwell (2010), "Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Hydropower in Southeast Alaska: Planning for a Robust Energy Future", Report to NOAA-NMFS Hydropower coordination office.

Cohen, J., J. Foster, M. Barlow, K. Saito and J. Jones (2010), "Winter 2009/10: A case study of an extreme Arctic Oscillation event", Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L17707, doi:10.1029/2010GL044256.

Rawlins, M.A., M. Steele, M. Holland, J.C. Adam, J.E. Cherry, J.A. Francis, P. Groisman, L.D. Hinzman, T.G. Huntington, D.L. Kane, J.S. Kimball, R. Kwok, R.B. Lammers, D.P. Lettenmaier, K.C. McDonald, E. Podest, J.W. Pundsack, B. Rudels, M.C. Serreze, A. Shiklomanov, O. Skagseth, T.J. Troy, C.J. Vorosmarty, M. Wensnahan, E.R. Wood, R. Woodgate, D. Yang, K. Zhang and T. Zhang (2010), “Intensified Water Cycle? Trend Analysis of the Arctic System Freshwater Cycle: Observations and Expectations”, Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3421.1.

Papers submitted

Cherry, J.E., “Arctic Hydroclimatology” in Encyclopedia of Snow, Ice, and Glaciers, Ed., V.P. Sing, P. Singh, U.K. Haritashya, Dordrecht, Springer (2010).

Cohen, J. and J. Jones, "Tropospheric precursors and stratospheric warmings", J. Climate (2011).

Foster, J.L., G. Skofronick-Jackson, H. Meng, J.R. Wang, G. Riggs, P.J. Kocin, B. T. Johnson, J. Cohen, D.K. Hall and S.V. Nghiem, "Remote Sensing of the Historic February 2010 Snow Storms in the Middle Atlantic Region of the U.S.: Focusing on the Baltimore/Washington Metropolitan Area", Hydrological Processes (2011).

Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, and J. Cohen, "Planetary- and synoptic-scale feedbacks between tropospheric and sea ice cover changes in the Arctic", Tellus, (2011).

Polyakov I.V., and V.A. Alexeev, et. al., "Nowcast: Fate of early-2000's Arctic warm water pulse", BAMS, (2011).

Smith, K., P.J. Kushner and J. Cohen, "The role of linear interference in Northern Annular Mode variability associated with Eurasian snow cover extent", J. Climate, (2011).

Vavrus, S., U. Bhatt, and V. Alexeev, "Factors Influencing Simulated Changes in Future Arctic Cloudiness", Journal of Climate, (2011).

Dates

1 September 2009 to 31 August 2013

Program