HARC Online Workshops - December 2001

Discussion Summary: 3 December 2001

Dear Colleagues:

We would like to thank all of the workshop participants for an interesting opening day to the sea ice workshop. Today's discussion topics ranged from basic questions such as "How is Arctic Sea Ice Changing?" to more specific questions regarding the types of changes being observed, and the effects of these changes on coastal areas, biology, subsistence hunting, and socioeconomics.

Several interesting lines of discussion are developing, including a growing list of observations that should serve to document specific cases where changes in subsistence hunting practices, animal behavior, etc. One such event discussed by several participants was the recent take of bowhead whale near the village of Savoonga on St. Lawrence Island. A side-discussion for this topic is beginning, which is considering whether changes in technology might be contributing to such changes in hunting practices or success. Other postings noted effects of enhanced coastal erosion when presence of sea ice was reduced, and discussed implications of this input of sediment into the near-shore marine environment.

Jim Maslanik, Moderator
Igor Krupnik, Moderator
Alex Whiting, Moderator
Henry Huntington, HARC SMO Director

DISCUSSION QUOTE:

"If I would say that I was surprising what I have seen, it means to say nothing: I was shocked by seeing of large areas of ice-free water, of very thin ice floes, of blue-colored ice blocks. But the most dramatic scene that I felt that time, it was, when I melted my first sea ice sample and found "nothing": the ice was without typical species of sea ice flora and fauna. The main knockdown I have received when I haven't found my nematod ñTheristus melnikovi ñ named in my honour in 1977. This biological "desert" was observed and repeated in all samples in the SHEBA area."
–Igor Melnikov

"I think we should also acknowledge the role of atmospheric circulation and multiyear ice concentration in regulating regional ice conditions. While a lot of work has demonstrated ice-circulation links, I think the role of MYI in defining future ice conditions is somewhat overlooked." –Sheldon Drobot

"The 1949 phenology of freezeup, then atypical, may be more like what has become routine by the 1990s." –Dave Norton

"If the animals can move, they may move with the ice and become scarce in one area and more common in another, as has happened with various sorts of seals in Greenland. If the animals can't move they may starve in large numbers, and the population may be reduced... If a resource is available, it also has to be accessible for hunters to be successful. In other words, they must be able to get at the animals there are, catch them, bring them back and handle processing and storage, without putting the hunters at too high risk of getting killed. What degree of risk is acceptable is influenced by how much food is already on hand, and also whether there are other sources for more (like the grocery store). As far as sea ice, various conditions can cause different sorts of problems..." –Anne Jensen

"The previous workshop on changes in Arctic weather noted some observations of changes in precipitation, in terms of amount and the distribution of rain versus snow. Since such changes in precip. over sea ice can affect the ice cover, animal use of the ice, operations on the ice pack, etc., has anyone reached any clear conclusions about whether snowpack depth or properties on the ice pack have changed over time?" –Jim Maslanik

"[Don Schell's] work indicated that a large amount of carbon erodes into nearshore waters, but the detrital carbon does not support much biological activity except near major rivers." –Thomas Dunning Newbury

Discussion Summary: 4 December 2001

Today's discussion involved a further treatment of finding appropriate proxy data to monitor changing sea ice conditions. Populations and movements of marine mammals and harvested fish can change in response to climatic events, such as the collapse in herring fishery near Iceland during the Great Salinity Anomaly in the late 1960s. Persisting open water near some villages has enabled later than usual whale harvests as well. These changes have obvious impacts to coastal residents and commercial enterprises. Furthermore, interpretation of these changes as responses to climate trends is complicated by determining the role of evolving technologies in affecting changes in numbers of fish caught and variations in whale harvesting. The improved ability to exchange information from one village to another, or in response to research findings or other means, might affect decisions as to when, where, what and how to harvest.

Several contributors described very interesting observations obtained from Russian ice breakers under the topics "How is arctic sea ice changing?" and "Relations to climate change". These include evidence of a general thinning, decrease in multiyear ice, and increase in open water fraction within the central Arctic, and the presence of "snow-ice" or "infiltration ice" (ice formed when large amounts of snow build up on ice, which can allow sea water to infiltrate through to the snow/ice interface) similar to that common in the Antarctic, but apparently rare in the Arctic ice pack.

Other areas of discussion included:

• Linkages between storm tracks and ice edge position. (A severe storm in the Barrow, Alaska area in August 2000 was mentioned in this context.)
• Impacts of reduced shore-fast ice on marine mammals and hunters
• Social, political, and technological influences on marine harvest (commercial and subsistence)
• Whether changes in arctic sea ice over the past 20 years is due to natural variability or directional change
• The need for long-term data on storm frequency and severity and ocean temperature and salinity
• Improving ice severity forecasting methods

Jim Maslanik, Moderator
Igor Krupnik, Moderator
Alex Whiting, Moderator
Henry Huntington, HARC SMO Director

DISCUSSION QUOTE:

"My investigations of ice in the Beaufort Sea show has been focussed on the development of open water so that I can relate oceanographic conditions to coastal evolution. while there appears to be more open water around at both the beginning and the end of the open water season, the overwhelming impression from the data is the interannual variability." –Steve Solomon

"I would like also draw your attention to the fact that whether the observed for the past 20 years reduction is greater than natural multi-decadal variability, in other words - a trend and not oscillation - is still a question. If I look at longer statistics, starting from 1950s (see WMO GDSIDB statistics at http://www.aari.nw.ru/gdsidb/sea_ice/arctic/scripts/aari_cl.html based on plain sea ice conditions charts) , I will see zero or increase of ice in the Eurasian Arctic." –Vasily Smolyanitsky

"Archaeologists working in Baffin and Labrador are very interested in sea ice, and more particularly on land fast ice and the factors that affect it. Prehistoric and historic Inuit cultures in the eatsern Arctic have relied on a stable ice footing as a hunting platform and highway, and both terrestrial and marine mammals that are economically important to Inuit traverse it and live in/under it as well. The combination of historic records and paleoclimate studies have given us some data on past sea ice conditions. One of the factors that has emerged as a major concern in the eastern Arctic, as sea ice relates to people, is storminess." –Sue Kaplan

"The 2000 storm was interesting in that it occurred when there was quite a lot of ice around. A similar storm in 1993 tracked along a similar route, but there was very little coastal ice present. It would be great is a meteorlogist could have a look at storm tracks - certainly the database is there. I am currently looking for a post-doc to pursue these kinds of questions if anyone is interested or knows of a candidate." –Steve Solomon

"Henry raised the point about hunting records giving us some clues about changes in sea-ice timing. I agree with Anne though that there are multiple causual factors that could explain this (socio-economic, gear, technology, quota etc). The fall whale harvest in both Kaktovik and Barrow does seem to have been happening earlier in the season for the 1990s (as compared to the 1980s), but sea ice is probably only one of several reasons that explain this. And don't forget the adaptive learning loop as a potential explanation...I recently heard a Kaktovik whaling captain being asked about one anomalous year in the early 1990s when the hunting started almost two weeks earlier than usual. His reply: 'Yes. You learn from your mistakes. We haven't done that again!'" –Craig Nicolson

"I agree with Henry that technological reasons alone probably aren't reasons for the appearance of Fall hunting in Savoonga, and it certainly would be interesting to look at the ice & weather records. People can't take up Fall whaling unless the conditions for whaling are right then. I just wanted to make the point that social and cultural factors can come into play too. In the case of Savoonga, the chance to meet and talk in detail with people who do Fall whaling (through AEWC) may have also been a factor in Savoonga trying it, when the conditions were right, because they could get information on techniques and equipment that worked from people who had already tried it, and adapt it to their local circumstances, rather than having to start from scratch. ...I'm sure if people were starving the hunters would and did try anything (which is probably how people started whaling in the first place...)." –Anne Jensen

"Northern Atlantic fisheries (Canada, Greenland , Iceland, Faroes, Norway, Russia...) are major economic activities downstream from, and potentially affected by, Arctic sea ice. For example, the Great Salinity Anomaly of 1968-82, which contributed to the collapse of Iceland's herring fishery, apparently originated with ice/water outflow through Fram Strait. Other examples might be found in recent Newfoundland, Greenland and Norwegian fisheries. In every case, fish populations were under heavy fishing pressure, so fisheries declines cannot be attributed to environment alone. It seems more plausible to suggest that environmental variations interact with fishing pressure (and with ecological feedbacks such as predator-prey relationships) in complex ways. The environment-ecolosystem-society interactions found in contemporary high-latitude fisheries present a challenging topic for human-dimensions research." –Larry Hamilton

"As a sea ice forecaster - not a biologist - I wonder if ice in the [Canadian] Archipelago might be more directly driven thermodynamically – and less influenced by circulation – than ice in the Actic Ocean. The data that the Canadian Ice Service has archived was collected primarily to support navigation. It is not very descriptive of the fast ice from which the hunters work. The fast ice in a predominantly thermodynamic regime may provide a more direct link to climate change without some of the complicating factors." –John Falkingham

Discussion Summary: 5 December 2001

Thanks to all for an exciting day of discussions. Topics under consideration covered a broad range of issues, including:

• Ecological change as a result of coastal erosion
• Impacts of shore-fast and bottom-fast ice on the stability of shorelines and nearshore benches
• Shifts in the distribution of races of marine bivalves due to changes in sea ice, possibly leading to ecosystem change
• Ecological importance of sea ice changes driven by weather
• Response of the north water polynya to climate variability
• Patterns of multi-year ice with respect to atmospheric circulation
• Importance of climate change versus annular modes in causing variations in arctic sea ice
• Role of seasonal snow cover in sea ice dynamics
• Long-term records of sea ice thickness and coverage, including ship logs, explorer records, ethnographies, harvest statistics, and patterns of subsistence hunting practices found through archeological excavation and oral histories
• Effective use of remote sensing data for developing sea ice models

Jim Maslanik, Moderator
Igor Krupnik, Moderator
Alex Whiting, Moderator
Henry Huntington, HARC SMO Director

DISCUSSION QUOTE:

"I'm curious whether there might be some links between direct modification of the shoreline by ice (changing the bottom topography, gouging of bluffs, etc.) and subsequent effects on changes on generation of a smooth area of shore-ward fast ice in autumn. Kenneth Toovak has pointed out the importance of this kind of shallow vs. steep beach in terms of erosion in the Barrow area. Perhaps this carries over into the nature of the fast ice as well." –Jim Maslanik

"One, of many interesting elements of precipitation from a climate change impacts perspective is how and when precipitation accumulates. The fall and early spring increases in frequency of precipitation events means that snow accumulates mostly in the spring (retaining the ice cover longer due to the albedo feedback). Often the ice cover is not in place in the fall period and as such the snow has little effect (not true of course if the ice does form). I also find it interesting that the precipitation occurs when the air temperatures are relatively high. This means that a small change in temperature (few degrees) in the spring (fall) could mean a significant different in whether we get liquid or solid precipitate. . . This has downstream effects to the rest of the ecosystem (affecting both primary and secondary producers)." –David Barber

"My "biological desert" in the sea ice is a consequence of recent warming of Arctic atmosphere decreasing the ice thickness and its properties: not so much cold to support the average sea ice thickness of MYI (Melnikov, 2000)." –Igor Melnikov

"While the fast ice there is admittedly somewhat different (at least from what I understand from the literature) than that in Baffin Bay and Newfoundland, I am still wondering whether it is storminess alone that determines break-up. It clearly doesn't in Barrow where the situation is quite complex and one would have to study this in much more detail to get even a fraction of the understanding that some of the locals have up there. As Jim alluded to as well, because of the narrow width of the fast ice zone (at least along the Chukchi Sea, you know better how this differs in the Canadian Arctic, let alone the Siberian Seas) the response of the fast ice to atmospheric or other forcing variables is often quite complex and may require more information than is currently furnished by, e.g., atmospheric circulation models." –Hajo Eicken

"In my opinion, there is an obivious need for the validation of Radarsat/ERS/Envisat-SAR sea ice algorithms. There are some sea ice algorithms available for SAR systems, but there exists no "standard" algorithm, like the NASA-TEAM or COMISO algorithm for the SSM/I." –Lars Kaleschke

"Concerning the breakup of fast ice in the eastern Canadian arctic - we have just completed a three-year project to see whether it is feasible to predict the breakup of the floe edge in Admiralty Inlet (at Lancaster Sound) and Pond Inlet (at Baffin Bay). The objective is to be able to warn hunters of immenent break up at the floe edge to increase safety and reduce SAR incidents. What we have found is that there needs to be a certain amount of pre-conditioning of the ice cover (i.e. weakening of the ice as temperatures increase) but that the actual break up at the edge is usually a catastrophic event triggered by either strong off-ice winds (a storm) or high tides - or both of these events acting in concert. In areas of Labrador and Baffin Bay where the tidal range is very high (compared to Alaska's north slope), it would be useful to examine the times of the high tides in the past to see whether this has a greater or lesser effect than storms." –John Falkingham

'We are in a precarious position in terms of sea ice changes -- we have global climate models that say ice should be decreasing due to warming, although ensembles of models show the uncertainty in both the timing and the size of decreasing ice. But we can't 'fingerprint' the recent changes in ice - that is, compare the observations to the models and say 'Here's the smoking gun - the cause is global warming' Even if the climate models were perfect (and they;re far from perfect), and the observations were available everywhere for 25 years, then we would still face the uncertainty of whether recent changes were outside of the realm of natural variability (as in the Arctic Oscillation) or part of a long-term trend." –John Weatherly

"Since Prudhoe Bay is a major oil facility, I am wondering if anyone has thoughts on how changes in the sea ice (notably a thinner ic cover or a longer open water season) could affect oil exploration and extraction in the Beaufort?" –Sheldon Drobot

"During the last decade we studied the distribution of some major marine taxa (in particular marine bivalves as mussels, cockles and clams) along the European coastline. A north-east shift of races (ecotypes) can be observed, most probably caused by global warming. This means that southern races penetrate more northeren areas, eliminating the (northern) endemic races. . . Of course one can accept that distribution areas of races are changing: at least when such has natural causes (as during the ice-ages), but also when it is (as nowadays) anthropogenic? At least we should be aware that this kind of changes are today nearby: not only in northern Russia but in all (sub)arctic territories where sharp geographic clines can be found." –Herman Hummel

"So the fall wind direction variability is, in my opinion, an important factor in the buildup (or lack of buildup) of multiyear ice." –William Sackinger

"Given that the Point Franklin area has obviously changed a great deal since Murdoch, is it possible that the ocean floor has changed so that the bar that was 1000 yards offshore is now not nearly as signficant a barrier to deep-keel ice? If the bar has gone away or subsided, there would be less to stop the ice moving on-shore and crumpling the shorefast ice. Just a thought. Having said that, there is certainly a lot to be learned from the old records, Rochfort Maguire's journal from the Plover at Barrow 1852-4 being another of them . . ." –Henry Huntington

"The other comment is that multiyear ice (pack ice) may actually get incorporated in nearshore ice more frequently these days (other things being equal) if more energy is pushing pack ice around, as in stronger winds. Alternatively, more pack ice may be incorporated if nearshore ice forms later in the season, simply because there is more pack ice nearby when late in situ freezing takes place." –Dave Norton

"We recently did a study with Lyudmila Bogoslovskaya, in using native catch statistics from Chukotka for roughly 30 years, between 1930 and 1960 (this was published in the "Arctic Research of the US", 1999, spring-summer). We did not use data on whale catch but use walrus, bearded seal, and 'small seal' harvest statistics for several communities. We figured out that walrus catch data are the best indicators of the annual ice regimes, at least in Chukotka, and particularly as proxies for the specific patterns of spring/summer ice desintegration and fall advance of the new ice."
–Igor Krupnik

Discussion Summary: 6 December 2001

Today's discussion continued the broad and integrated discussion of monitoring and interpreting changes in sea ice and their effects on coastal communities. Some of the topics covered include:

• Ecological implications of sea ice changes in both the marine and terrestrial environments
• The relationship between fast ice and various mechanisms contributing to ice formation, stability and breakup, and how these might be differ in different locations within the Arctic
• The significance of melt ponds on spring sea ice, for identifying ice type, for on-ice travel, and for ice dynamics
• The importance of ocean currents vs. winds
• The potential role of permafrost beneath fast ice.
• The extent to which sea ice changes are the result of oscillations versus directional trends, in particular in relation to sea ice thickness and mass distribution in the Arctic Ocean
• Observations of changes in sea ice and consequent changes in hunting patterns in Kotzebue Sound and in Nunavut
• The use of historical and archeological records, and the usefulness of harvest statistics for different species such as walrus, ringed seal, and various fishes
• The implications of sea ice changes for offshore development in the Arctic

The topic of "sea ice changes - natural variability or global warming?" was particularly active, with comments focusing on the role of the Arctic Oscillation, whether the AO is a true circulation mode. Another growing area is the "list of observations" of ecological change related to sea ice variations. The use of archeological and historical records to extend our knowledge of ice back in time is an important area of inquiry. Harvest records in Greenland, ships' logs in the Atlantic and Pacific, faunal remains in archeological sites--all these can tell us something about ice extent, conditions, and associated fauna. But, they must all be used with caution, since a variety of factors may influence how and why the records were accumulated.

First-person observations about changes in thickness of the ice cover and effects on travel over the ice near Arctic Bay, Nunavut provide vivid and valuable insight into the direct effects of year-to-year variations in sea ice. The implications of changing sea ice for fish, birds, and mammals is a major question, and a number of impacts to terrestrial systems were cited in this regard [Alex Whiting's post (signed "sheep")]. The value of (and cautions associated with) the integration of biology (ringed seal populations were used as an example as a species closely linked to fast-ice cover), archaeology, anthropology and other approaches with ice proxy records and direct sea-ice and climate observations as a means of reconstructing past climatic conditions was noted, with some valuable research results cited. Several participants pointed out that considerable work has been done in this area, but that interesting routes of investigation remain.

Jim Maslanik, Moderator
Igor Krupnik, Moderator
Alex Whiting, Moderator
Henry Huntington, HARC SMO Director

DISCUSSION QUOTE:

"My view on this issue of using satellites to observe/monitor Arctic ice thickness is that, while there are tremendous challenges ahead of us, the remote sensing technique holds a lot of promises as shown by all the work previously done. Personally, I do not think any satellite alone can do all the job. The furure may be to use combined information from various satellites." –Yanling Yu

"What has proven truly worthwhile in our project's use of SAR imagery is neither quantitatation nor the unambiguous categorisation of ice types, but rather the ability to follow a time series of images. Even if we do not understand all the ice surface types we are seeing in a series of SAR images, images spaced at an average of every three days during the spring whaling season at Barrow and Wainwright allow us to get a cinematic (rather than a snapshot) perspective on how things change. This cinematic overview seems to correspond well with how our Inupiat colleagues perceive the nearshore ice system upon which they depend." –Dave Norton

"For our work we have not used SAR images (although we have thousands) but are rather focusing on how the SAR backscatter over a point of fast ice changes with time. Changes in the backscatter indicate physical changes in the snow pack on the ice and can indicate the onset of the decay process before there are any visible changes on the surface." –John Falkingham

"I would like to have an open, web-based, standard database consisting of sea ice test data which should be maintained by the sea ice remote sensing community. The database server should not be very expensive to develop. But the success of such database will depend on the users which should contribute the data sets. I don`t know if this would be of general interest. If this was the case, i would start to develop a SQL database with web access at first for my own ERS-SAR test data." –Lars Kaleschke

"It would be interesting to check the late summer imagery for size of melt ponds, which is an indicator of the first-year, second-year, third-year, etc sea ice extent..larger ponds associated with the older sea ice." –William Sackinger

"Within the ice pack, and other multiyear ice floes that I've seen that have been trapped in fast ice (such as near Resolute), the distinguishing characteristics of MY ice ponds are that they're deeper and more convoluted than over to hear whether ponds on fast ice tend to differ significantly from pack ice MY-ice and FY-ice ponds. Don Perovich or Tom Grenfell have plenty of observations that might relate to this." –Jim Maslanik

"I think it likely that with a very limited historical/satellite record and a system with wide natural variability, we are not going to be able to pinpoint the cause of Arctic change with what we consider scientific proof for a long time. But the anecdotal evidence, combined with the rising CO2, global temperatures, and models which despite their shortcomings seem to be fairly unanimous in indicating amplified Arctic change in response to rising CO2, all point to anthropogenic involvement. Yanling throws out a challenge: we owe it to public (the billpayers) to present our view of what is occurring, and if possible to reach some consensus as to its causes. To further Yanlingís thrust regarding anecdotal evidence, perhaps the approach we should take is to present the case as more akin to a US criminal trial: as anyone who has served on a jury knows, a good judge always makes clear the difference between absolute proof and 'reasonable doubt.'" –Mile McPhee

"It would be interesting for someone who's got a really good thickness-distribution/ridging model run to "simulate" collection of submarine transects (sampled from the modeled thicknesses) at the same locations using in the Rothrock et al. paper, but add in some sampling along the Canadian side of the Arctic to represent what the data set might have looked like if submarines had been able to acquire more observations in this region of large keels and ridges. Perhaps this would shed some light on the degree of possible biasing of the submarine data by undersampling in this region."
–Jim Maslanik

"Larry Dyke and Steve Wolfe have modeled the aggradation of permafrost beneath bottomfast ice cover in the Mackenzie region of the Beaufort. I have done some coring in the nearsore zone in the spring and found a nearshore active layer as much as 3.5 m thick. The extent to which this affects the evolution of the nearshore zone is uncertain. It certainly has an impact on brine convection and possibly on permafrost degradation close to shore. Osterkamp has identified simlar seasonal active layer stratigraphy." –Steve Solomon

"Many other societal issues may contribute to changes in human ice-related activities. What about using those effects to support sea ice analysis--not as the primary data but as secondary evidence? Would that be useful? Maybe not. I have been reading the comments the past few days and Anne Jensen's reply on ships' logs as proxy data, and Ikrupnik's e-mail about native catch samples seem to be feasible." –LeenKiat Soh

"During the summer of 2001, we (Canadian Wildlife Service in Iqaluit, Nunavut, Canada) conducted community knowledge interviews in the community of Arctic Bay, Nunavut. Twelve local hunters and Elders were interviewed. All the interviewees who still actively went out on the sea ice for subsistence hunting noticed a recent reduction in sea ice thickness. Most of the informants stated that the cause of the reduction in the sea ice thickness was due to a warmer climate. Although none of the informants were specifically asked about changes in subsistence hunting, several of the interviewees mentioned the changes they had noticed in relation to their hunting practices on the sea ice. Two hunters noticed how the reduction in sea ice thickness affected their travels by ski-doo during the spring. Back in June we went out to the Brodeur Peninsula and there was no water out on the ice – normally there is water at that time. The ice was flat. It was very nice to travel on (by ski-doo). [Joanasie Akumalik] . . . One hunter noticed how the change in the sea ice affected his hunting out along the sea ice. The ice has been really thin and although the ice thickness varies year-to-year, the ice over the past two springs has been noticeably different. The ice usually stay a bit longer. The ice condition this year affected our narwhal hunt...I know that because we hunt seals around seal holes and there have been hunters who've had difficulty catching seals because of the increase in open water. [Levi Barnabas]" –Jason Akearok

"I was intrigued by Igor's suggestion that walrus may be a good indicator species for the circulation-driven break-up of land fast ice, and that ringed seals mignt be better indicators for thermodynamically-driven break up of land fast ice. Ian Stirling (Canadian Wildlife Service, Dept. of Environment, ian.stirling [at] ec.gc.ca) recently presented some information showing that when polar bears left the pack ice in spring in western Hudson Bay, their departure was highly correlated with the percentage of ice cover as measured by satellite (Canadian Ice Service). These kinds of correlations may offer an opportunity to link local Inuit observations to more "science-based" measurements like satellite measurement, and at the same time tie human impacts more closely to climate change modelling." –Jack Mathias

"I've looked at archaeofaunas from areas where the ringed seal adults were virtual midgets (Clavering Island, East Greenland comes to mind) versus sites in Hamilton Inlet, Labrador or on the Alaskan North Slope where there were embayments which preserved flat stable ice and apparently were better for pupping. . .Igor's suggestion of walrus as a potential indicator species for moving ice is a good one, particularly in more southerly parts of the Arctic and it seems in Chukotka. Another useful species for this is bearded seal, since they spend a lot of time on moving ice, but apparently can't live in very thick fast ice. They don't seem to be very good at maintaining breathing holes through ice of any thickness, so apparently move as ice becomes thick." –Anne Jensen

"Through these kinds of analyses, archaeologists can contribute information about the relative importance of open water and ice-related hunting and the kinds of animals that were present, through time, in a particular area. Used together, and in combination with historic sea ice indices and the ice core sea ice records, these data provide a way to infer changes in the biota of particular polynyas and variability in the size or occurrence of polynyas." –Jim Woollett

"Not all effects are so readily apparent; for example when a late freeze up coincides with a large (potentially hundreds) emigration of Arctic foxes from north to south once they reach northern Kotzebue Sound their continued migration is delayed due to the long line of "east to west" parallel coastline in northern Kotzebue Sound, which being open during a late freeze up provides a barrier. These foxes then directly compete, for an unusual length of time, for the finite and important coastal resources (i.e. beached marine mammal carcasses, lemmings, etc.) of the local population of red fox and potentially others, such as ermine, snowy owls and gyrfalcons, also hunting the coastlines and rivers. Which would seem to have lasting ramifications for all of the species involved. Looked at closely, and in depth, many such examples of the direct and indirect influences and implications of the breakup and freeze up of the sea ice can be found, throughout the entire ecoregion of the Arctic. I find these as important and interesting as any direct and readily apparent influences." –Alex Whiting

"Throughout the 20th century, many respected archaeologists (Jenness, Taylor, McGhee, Morrison, etc.) were concerned with the origin of the Copper Inuit, but could not find its transition from Thule on the coast. After 1985-6 excavation of the inland caribou water-crossing site of Nadlok on the Burnside River on the Arctic Circle just SW of Bathurst Inlet, I concluded the following:
1. Copper Inuit arose from Thule Inuit inland rather than on the coast, based on Nadlok C14 dates and artifact change.
2. In the Little Ice Age, Thule hunters abandoned breathing-hole sealing (presumably due to sea ice thickening or multi-year ice) at Bathurst Inlet and Coronation Gulf and went inland between A.D. 1450 and 1750.
3. Thule hunters at Bathurst Inlet and Coronation Gulf originally hunted both sea and land mammals, specifically seals and caribou, but switched to caribou when they abandoned the coast. At Nadlok, tens of thousands of caribou were killed, and thousands of bulls had their antlers used in house construction.
4. After three centuries of inland occupation and evolving from Thule to Copper Inuit, they returned to the coast after climatic amelioration."
–Bryan Gordon

Discussion Summary: 7 December 2001

Highlights added to the discussion 7 December 2001 (Friday):

• Introduction of the issue of increased shipping within the Arctic Basin, if trends in reduced ice extent and coverage of multiyear ice continue to decrease.
• Additional input regarding the responses of animals to sea ice changes, including the need to bear in mind that increasing populations of bowhead whales might naturally lead to more "unusual" occurrences of whale harvests, irrespective of ice conditions.
• Further discussion of relationships between trends in ice thickness, and the possible role of redistribution of ice mass in the Arctic Basin, including the role of ice transport versus growth and melt. The need for further modeling of this was noted. Greg Holloway provided some valuable modeling results and other insights in this regard.

These contributions on the final day of the sea ice workshop capped a series of excellent discussion threads that included such diverse, yet intertwined topics as:

• ecological relationships and impacts to changes in sea ice cover,
• an array of responses of biota--ranging from bivalves to caribou--to changes in sea ice,
• information needs and difficulties regarding interpreting sea ice changes as global-warming signals versus natural cycles, but with, I think, a general consensus that the observed trends are at least consistent with global warming scenarios,
• sensitivities of coastal and near-shore zones to increased erosion and storm damage as ice retreats or its seasonal duration is reduced,
• opportunities for additional sea ice observations, both in-situ and from remote sensing, to better quantify changes in ice cover,
• drawing of attention to underutilized data sets,
• the unique insights offered by Arctic residents, and how these might be incorporated into traditional western-science approaches.

In short, I think that the discussions reinforce the notion of the Arctic as a system and the detailed and complex relationships of each part of the system to other elements. This is a lesson that Arctic residents have stressed, and one that it would be well to adopt more fully in our research. The need for and benefits of approaching sea ice studies in an interdisciplinary manner is clear. In terms of general comments, I would like to reiterate the earlier marks that the breadth of the discussions was excellent - involving nearly every element that we, as the moderators and workshop organizers, had hoped to encourage contributors to explore. I, for one, intend to follow up with several individuals to gather more information and to explore collaborative research.

Jim Maslanik, Moderator
Igor Krupnik, Moderator
Alex Whiting, Moderator

Marilyn Cook wrote on behalf of her school-age classes in Port Aransas, Texas:
"Although we live on the Gulf coast of Texas this discussion is very valuable for our students. We have founding people of Mustang Island that talk about our beach erosion and commercial fishermen/shrimpers that are affected by the erosion as well as our climate. The salinity of bays and estuaries also is a factor. Thank you all so much for this discussion. It is a good study for our students to compare and contrast that part of the world and our part in the lower part of the lower 48." –Marilyn Cook

Announcements:

FYI two conference special sessions are upcoming regarding the use of SAR in mapping ice. In Miami, the 7th International Conference on Remote Sensing for Marine and Coastal Environments, May 20-22, 2002, and in Toronto, the IGARSS symposium, June 24-28, specifically relating to RADARSAT2." –Gavin Manson

Moderators

• Igor Krupnik
• Jim Maslanik is an associate research professor at the University of Colorado in Boulder. His main area of research involves the combination of remote sensing and modeling to identify and interpret regional variations and trends in Arctic sea ice cover. He is presently involved in projects to improve prediction of ice severity in the western Arctic and to integrate climate research with hazards assessment and community planning on the North Slope of Alaska.
• Alex Whiting is the Environmental Protection Specialist for the Native Village of Kotzebue, located in northwest Alaska. He is also the principal and co-investigator on research projects involving traditional knowledge, climate/environmental change, wildlife, co-management of resources, contaminants in wildlife, marine ecology and historic preservation. He sat on the UAF Climate Change workshop panel as a member of the subsistence committee. He is an active subsistence hunter and gatherer. In addition he has a passion for, and is a student of, Alaska topics; including the fields of politics/policy at state, federal, and tribal, natural history, Native Alaskans, wildlife management, environment, socioeconomic, exploration and development.