The Seasonal Response of the Arctic and Global Climate System to Projected Sea Ice Loss within the Context of GHG-Induced Climate Change

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Overview

The objective of the project is to identify robust seasonal changes in the Arctic climate system to projected Arctic sea ice loss, and to place these into the context of global-scale changes due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations (GHGs). We examine physical and biological changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and land using the newest versions of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and Community Earth System Model (CESM) as our primary tool.

To date, our project has investigated the following issues:

  1. Climatological characteristics of the planetary boundary layer over the Arctic Ocean and adjacent continents in models and various observational products including radiosondes, reanalyses, and satellite data.

  2. Uncertainty in future trajectories of Arctic sea ice loss due to internal variability of the climate system based on a new 40-member ensemble of forced 21st century integrations with CCSM version 3.

  3. Impact of shifting seasonality on carbon and nutrient cycling in the Arctic Ocean based on forced 21st century integrations with CCSM.

  4. Evaluation of seasonal changes in 21st century Arctic sea ice as simulated by the new CCSM version 4.

  5. Soil data assemblage for use in assessing the state of ground and comparison to CESM.

  6. Recent changes in Arctic seasonality as determined from Reanalysis products.

Members

Principal Investigator

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Clara Deser

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Deser - link to SAM contact for fixing fields.

Co-Principal Investigator

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Marika Holland

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Holland - link to SAM contact for fixing fields.

Co-Principal Investigator

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David Lawrence

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Lawrence - link to SAM contact for fixing fields.

Co-Principal Investigator

Andrew Slater

University of Colorado Boulder

Slater - link to SAM contact for fixing fields.

Project Member

Matthew Long

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Long - link to SAM contact for fixing fields.

Project Member

Justin Wettstein

National Center for Atmospheric Research Earth Systems laboratory

Wettstein - link to SAM contact for fixing fields.
Resources

Papers submitted or in press

Medeiros, B., C. Deser, R.A. Tomas, and J.E. Kay, "Arctic inversion strength in climate models", J. Climate, e-View, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3968.1 (2011).

Vavrus, S.J., M.M. Holland, A. Jahn, D.A. Bailey, and B.A. Blazey, "21st-Century Arctic climate change in CCSM4", J. Climate (2011).

Zhang, Y., D.J. Seidel, J.-C. Golaz, C. Deser, and R.A. Tomas, "Climatological Characteristics of Arctic and Antarctic Surface-Based Inversions", J. Climate, (2011).

Conference Abstracts

Long, M., “Impacts of shifting seasonality on Arctic Ocean carbon and nutrient cycles”, CCSM Polar Climate Working Group meeting, NCAR, Boulder, CO (2011).

Wettstein, J., “Uncertainty in 21st Arctic sea ice loss: the role of natural climate variability”, CCSM Polar Climate Working Group meeting, NCAR, Boulder, CO (2011).

Wettstein, J., “Uncertainty in 21st Arctic sea ice loss: the role of natural climate variability", AMS 11th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography, Boston, MA (2011).

Lawrence, D., "Will a large-scale expansion of Arctic shrub extent increase or decrease permafrost vulnerability to climate change?", AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA (2010).

Long, M., “Aspects of Arctic Ocean Biogeochemistry in CESM1”, CCSM Ocean Model Working Group meeting, Santa Fe, NM (2010).

Slater, A.G., “Land Data Assimilation for Seasonal Prediction and beyond: The Arctic Case”, WCRP Workshop on Arctic Predictability, Bergen, Norway (2010).

Dates

1 September 2009 to 31 August 2013

Program