The objective of the project is to identify robust seasonal changes in the Arctic climate system to projected Arctic sea ice loss, and to place these into the context of global-scale changes due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations (GHGs). We examine physical and biological changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and land using the newest versions of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and Community Earth System Model (CESM) as our primary tool.
To date, our project has investigated the following issues:
Climatological characteristics of the planetary boundary layer over the Arctic Ocean and adjacent continents in models and various observational products including radiosondes, reanalyses, and satellite data.
Uncertainty in future trajectories of Arctic sea ice loss due to internal variability of the climate system based on a new 40-member ensemble of forced 21st century integrations with CCSM version 3.
Impact of shifting seasonality on carbon and nutrient cycling in the Arctic Ocean based on forced 21st century integrations with CCSM.
Evaluation of seasonal changes in 21st century Arctic sea ice as simulated by the new CCSM version 4.
Soil data assemblage for use in assessing the state of ground and comparison to CESM.
Recent changes in Arctic seasonality as determined from Reanalysis products.
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
National Center for Atmospheric Research
University of Colorado Boulder
National Center for Atmospheric Research Earth Systems laboratory
Medeiros, B., C. Deser, R.A. Tomas, and J.E. Kay, "Arctic inversion strength in climate models", J. Climate, e-View, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3968.1 (2011).
Vavrus, S.J., M.M. Holland, A. Jahn, D.A. Bailey, and B.A. Blazey, "21st-Century Arctic climate change in CCSM4", J. Climate (2011).
Zhang, Y., D.J. Seidel, J.-C. Golaz, C. Deser, and R.A. Tomas, "Climatological Characteristics of Arctic and Antarctic Surface-Based Inversions", J. Climate, (2011).
Long, M., “Impacts of shifting seasonality on Arctic Ocean carbon and nutrient cycles”, CCSM Polar Climate Working Group meeting, NCAR, Boulder, CO (2011).
Wettstein, J., “Uncertainty in 21st Arctic sea ice loss: the role of natural climate variability”, CCSM Polar Climate Working Group meeting, NCAR, Boulder, CO (2011).
Wettstein, J., “Uncertainty in 21st Arctic sea ice loss: the role of natural climate variability", AMS 11th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography, Boston, MA (2011).
Lawrence, D., "Will a large-scale expansion of Arctic shrub extent increase or decrease permafrost vulnerability to climate change?", AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA (2010).
Long, M., “Aspects of Arctic Ocean Biogeochemistry in CESM1”, CCSM Ocean Model Working Group meeting, Santa Fe, NM (2010).
Slater, A.G., “Land Data Assimilation for Seasonal Prediction and beyond: The Arctic Case”, WCRP Workshop on Arctic Predictability, Bergen, Norway (2010).