Agenda | ARCUS

Agenda

Wednesday, 4 May 2016

Time
8:00 am	Registration Check-in and Name Badge Pick-up
8:10 am	Shuttle Departs Holiday Inn for LDEO
8:15 am	Shuttle Departs HNA Palisades Conference Center for LDEO
9:00 am	Welcoming Remarks Cecilia Bitz University of Washington, and Xiaojun Yuan, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Workshop Organizing Committee Chairs

Predictability, chaired by Cecilia Bitz

Predictability, chaired by Cecilia Bitz
Time
9:15 am	Towards Understanding the Predictability of Sea Ice Properties of Societal Relevance Keynote Presentation by Marika Holland National Center for Atmospheric Research
9:45 am	The Fundamental Role of Sea Ice Predictions to Minimize Climatic Impacts on Arctic Communities Gisele Arruda Oxford Brookes University
10:05 am	Predictability of the Arctic Sea Ice Edge Helge Goessling Alfred Wegener Institute
10:25 am	Break
10:50 am	Sea-Ice Hindcast Skill in Decadal Simulations with the MiKlip Prediction System Daniel Senftleben German Institute of Atmospheric Physics
11:10 am	Spring Melt Ponds Predict Regional September Ice in Coupled Climate Simulations for Different Climatic Scenarios David Schroeder Centre for Polar Observation & Modelling, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading

Process Studies, chaired by Xiaojun Yuan

Process Studies, chaired by Xiaojun Yuan
Time
11:30 am	Cosmopolitan and Provincial Sea Ice in a Transitioning Arctic Ocean Robert Newton Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
11:50 am	Connections Between the Spring Pacific-Arctic Dipole and Summer Sea Ice in the Beaufort-Chukchi Seas Minghong Zhang Bedford Institute of Oceanography
12:10 pm	Impact of Aerosols on Arctic Sea Ice Extent Prediction Marie-Éve Gagné Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada
12:30 pm	Lunch (provided)
1:40 pm	Sea Ice Wall of the Antarctic Keynote Presentation by Douglas Martinson Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
2:10 pm	Water Mass Transformation Under Southern Ocean Sea Ice Ryan Abernathey Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
2:30 pm	Arctic-Midlatitudes Climate Linkage by Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling and its Implications in Sea Ice Prediction Jinro Ukita Niigata University
2:50 pm	Understanding Physical Processes and Evaluating Parameterizations During the 2015 Freeze-Up Season Using a Coupled Sea Ice-Ocean-Atmosphere Forecast Model Amy Solomon Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado and Physical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA
3:10 pm	Arctic Sea Ice Thickness from the Cryosat-2 Satellite – Methods, Uncertainties, and Near Real Time Data Delivery Rachel Tilling University College London
3:30 pm	Increase in the Frequency and Extent of Sub-Ice Phytoplankton Blooms in the Arctic Ocean Christopher Horvat Harvard University
3:50 pm	Poster Session with refreshments
5:30 pm	Adjourn for day
6:00 pm	Shuttles Depart for Both Hotels

Thursday, 5 May 2016

Time
8:30 am	Shuttles Depart Both Hotels for LDEO

Predictions and Dynamical Predictive Systems I, chaired by Helge Goessling

Predictions and Dynamical Predictive Systems I, chaired by Helge Goessling
Time
9:00 am	Short-Term Sea Ice Forecasting: Modeling, Data Assimilation and Verification Challenges Keynote Presentation by Jean-Francois Lemeieux Environment and Climate Change Canada
9:30 am	Short Term Forecasting of Sea Ice Drift and Ice Edge Position Using a Coupled Ice Ocean Model Axel Schweiger University of Washington, Applied Physics Laboratory, Polar Science Center
9:50 am	Seasonal Climate Forecasts Significantly Affected by Observational Uncertainty of Arctic Sea-Ice Concentration Felix Bunzel Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
10:10 am	Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Modes on Seasonal to Interannual Time Scales (And Arctic Research Activities at Barcelona Supercomputing Center) Neven-Stjepan Fuckar Barcelona Supercomputing Center
10:30 am	Break
10:50 am	Assessment of CFSv2 Operational Seasonal Forecast in the Arctic Muyin Wang University of Washington
11:10 am	Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Initialization on Seasonal Forecasts of Surface Atmospheric Forcing Qiong Yang University of Washington
11:30 am	Assessment of 2015 Sea Ice Forecasts at the NCEP Climate Prediction Center and a Look Forward Thomas Collow INNOVIM, LLC/ NOAA, National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Prediction Center
11:50 am	Update on Met Office Seasonal Sea Ice Forecasts using GloSea5 Drew Peterson Met Office Hadley Centre (presentation by Ed Blockley)
12:10 pm	Assessing the Impact of Sea Ice Data Assimilation and Thickness Initialisation in the Met Office Seasonal Prediction System Ed Blockley Met Office Hadley Centre
12:30 pm	Lunch (provided)

Predictions and Dynamical Predictive Systems II, chaired by Eduardo Blanchard- Wrigglesworth

Predictions and Dynamical Predictive Systems II, chaired by Eduardo Blanchard- Wrigglesworth
Time
1:50 pm	Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Ice-Free And Freeze-Up Dates in a Dynamical Forecast System Michael Sigmond Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada
2:10 pm	Naval Research Laboratory Participation in the Sea Ice Outlook E. Joseph Metzger Naval Research Laboratory
2:30 pm	Arctic Sea Ice Performance in the NASA GMAO Seasonal Forecasting System James Carton University of Maryland
2:50 pm	Break
3:10 pm	Summer Enhancement of Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomalies in the September Ice Zone Mitch Bushuk Princeton University
3:30 pm	Regional Forecast of the Minimum Sea Ice Extent: a Lagrangian Approach Bruno Tremblay McGill University
3:50 pm	A Common Framework for Evaluation of Sea Ice Forecasts and Verification Products François Massonnet Barcelona Supercomputing Center
4:10 pm	Discussion
5:30 pm	Car pool to restaurant, Lamont van to assist
6:30 pm	No host workshop dinner

Friday, 6 May 2016

Time
8:30 am	Shuttles Depart Both Hotels for LDEO

Statistical Predictions and Methods Session, chaired by Muyin Wang

Statistical Predictions and Methods Session, chaired by Muyin Wang
Time
9:00 am	Predicting Summer Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Intra-seasonal Variability Using a Vector Autoregressive Model Lei Wang Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
9:20 am	Predicting Arctic Sea Ice Anomalies with Kernel Ensemble Analog Forecasting Darin Comeau Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University
9:40 am	Data-Driven Modeling and Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Dmitri Kondrashov University of California, Los Angeles
10:00 am	Arctic Sea Ice Predictability at the Intra-Seasonal Time Scale in a Stochastic Model Xiaojun Yuan Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
10:20 am	A Review of High-Performance Projects Predicting 100 Years Forwards and 100 Years Backwards: Only Machine Learning will do the Job Explicit in Time and Space Falk Huettmann University of Alaska Fairbanks, EWHALE Lab
10:40 am	Break

Sea Ice Outlook and Prediction Programs, chaired by Helen Wiggins

Sea Ice Outlook and Prediction Programs, chaired by Helen Wiggins
Time
11:00 am	400 Predictions: The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008-2015 Keynote Presentation by Lawrence Hamilton University of New Hampshire
11:30 am	Lessons from a Multi-Model SIO Experiment Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth University of Washington
11:50 am	SIPN, YOPP, PPP, PCPI, S2S, and the SIO Future: Year-Round Forecast Targeting the Local Scale Cecilia Bitz, University of Washington Helge Goessling, Alfred Wegener Institute Andrew Robertson, Columbia University
12:20 pm	Discussion
1:00 pm	Lunch
2:00 pm	Meeting Adjourns