August Call for 2019 Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
August Report (Based on May, June, and July data)
Submission deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Wednesday, 14 August 2019 (Firm)
Please follow the submission process guidelines detailed below.
Questions can be directed to: Betsy Turner-Bogren, betsy [at] arcus.org and the 2019 SIO Support Team (sio2019 [at] arcus.org)
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces the call for contributions for the 2019 Sea Ice Outlook August report. The Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. A Post-Season Interim Report, with focus on performance of Outlooks as compared to sea ice minimum, will be generated at the end of the retreat season. The Post-Season Final Report, which will provide analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent and further explore the scientific methods for predicting seasonal conditions, will be published in early 2020. We encourage all past contributors to submit Outlooks this year and we also hope to see new participants.
Please see detailed guidelines for contributions under "Submission Process" below.
Pan-Arctic and Alaska Regional Sea Ice Extent Outlooks and any additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted for the 2019 August Outlook. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). Submissions that include spatial forecast maps are encouraged. For those interested, we also accept submissions for Hudson Bay this year.
The 2019 SIO will continue to accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean. Additionally, we encourage submissions to the associated effort of the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx, 2017-2020, see details below).
We strongly encourage all participants whose methods provide information at the local scale to provide full spatial fields via the SIPN Data Portal. These submissions will allow us to compute metrics such as sea ice probability and first ice-free day for you, as well as additional regional analysis for the Sea Ice Outlook.
Sea Ice Outlook data resources are available via the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) SIPN Data Set webpage.
In addition to the contributions for the monthly reports, we are also accepting "informal contributions" throughout the season that do not otherwise fit into the monthly report format. These informal contributions could include information on fall freeze-up data, sea ice observations, and parameters other than extent and/or for other time periods than what is included in the regular monthly reports. Informal contributions should be sent via email to sio2019 [at] arcus.org
SUBMISSION DEADLINE: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Wednesday, 14 August 2019 (Firm)
Contributions received after the deadline may not be fully incorporated into the Outlook report or discussion.
Questions may be directed to Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org) and the 2019 SIO Support Team (sio2019 [at] arcus.org).
- Required core information for pan-Arctic Outlook projections using dynamical model, statistical, heuristic, and mixed methods will be collected via an online web form hosted by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). (Note: You will receive confirmation of your submission via email.)
- Contributors have the option of submitting additional Outlook report details, including discussions and details related to uncertainties/probabilities, via the same online web form.
- Contributors also have the option of submitting information for pan-Antarctic and/or Alaska regional or Hudson Bay sea ice extent projections using the same online web form.
- Contributors who wish to share supplemental information such as discussion of uncertainties/probabilities, any relevant figures, images, references, or further information about their methods are invited to upload pdf files (less than 20 MB) at the bottom of the same online web form.
- Submissions of full spatial field sea ice forecasts (full raw fields of sea ice concentration and/or sea ice thickness or post-processed fields) will be collected via the SIPN Data Portal.
- Be sure to hit SUBMIT at the bottom of the submission page.
- Note: If the online form is not a workable option, files may be sent via email to: sio2019 [at] arcus.org.
Submission deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Wednesday, 14 August 2019 (Firm)
Contributors who want their submissions to either the 2019 June Report (Based on May data) or the July SIO Report (Based on May and June data) be included in the August SIO report—with no changes—should so indicate via the online form by selecting either:
“Please use our submission from the 2019 June report,” or
“Please use our submission from the 2019 July report.”
Or, contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).
Submission Fields in Online Form
For your information, below are the fields in the online form.
Required responses are indicated with an asterisk* — these include responses to Sections 1-5. Response to question 6 is required if sea ice concentration or sea ice thickness are used. Response to Section 7 questions a), b), and c) are optional, but answers are encouraged.
Your E-mail Address* ____________
Has this data been previously submitted for the 2019 SIO?*
____ This is a new submission. (NOTE: Select this option if your submission has updated content that include June and/or July data or if it was not submitted to either the 2019 June or July reports.)
____ Please use our submission from the 2019 June report. (NOTE: Only select this option if there are no changes to the outlook submitted to the June report.)
____ Please use our submission from the 2019 July report. (NOTE: Only select this option if there are no changes to the outlook submitted to the July report.)
Section 1*: What is the type of your Outlook projection?
a) Check for: _____Dynamic Model, _____Statistical, _____Heuristic, _____Mixed, _____Other
b) Please specify the name of the model as a whole and each component including version numbers and how the component is initialized.
Section 2*: We are again accepting both pan-Arctic and pan-Antarctic sea ice extent (either one or both) of the September monthly mean. As in recent years, we are also collecting Alaskan regional sea ice extent. For those interested, we will also accept submissions for Hudson Bay. To be consistent with the validating sea ice extent index from NSIDC, if possible, please first compute the average sea ice concentration for the month and then compute the extent as the sum of cell areas > 15%.
a) Pan-Arctic September extent prediction in million square kilometers.
b) Same as in (a) but for pan-Antarctic. If your method differs substantially from that for the Arctic, please enter it as a separate submission.
c) Same as in (b) but for the Alaskan region. Please also tell us maximum possible extent if every ocean cell in your region were ice covered. (see further instructions below)
d) Same as in (c), but for Hudson Bay (for those interested).
Section 3*: Contributor name(s)
a) Name of contributor or name of contributing organization.
Note: Please limit name to 30 characters (e.g., ARCUS Group [Wiggins, et al.]), this will be used to label your contribution in the report.
b) Name and organization for all contributors. Indicate primary contact and total number of people who may have contributed to your Outlook, even if not included on the author list.
If this is a contribution from a person or group not affiliated with a research organization please check this box:
_____Yes, this contribution is from a "Citizen Scientist."
Section 4*: "Executive summary" of your Outlook contribution (using 300 words or less) describe how and why your contribution was formulated. To the extent possible, use non-technical language.
Section 5*: Brief explanation of Outlook method (using 300 words or less).
Section 6: Data sets used for initial Sea Ice Concentraton (SIC) and Sea Ice Thickness (SIT);
a) Tell us the dataset used for your initial Sea Ice Concentration (SIC).
Note: Include source (e.g., which data center), name (algorithm), DOI and/or data set website, and date (e.g., “NSIDC NASA Team, https://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0081, https://doi.org/10.5067/U8C09DWVX9LM.”)
b) Tell us the dataset used for your initial Sea Ice Thickness (SIT) used. Include name and date.
Response to Section 7 questions a), b), and c) are optional, but answers are encouraged.
Section 7: If available from your method.
a) Uncertainty/probability estimates:
Standard deviations: ___________
b) Brief explanation/assessment of basis for the uncertainty (1-2 sentences).
c) Brief description of any post processing you have done (1-2 sentences).
Upload Detailed Outlook Report (Optional)
NOTE: On the online web form you may include discussions of uncertainties/probabilities, any relevant figures, imagery, and references.
Files must be less than 10 MB.
File type allowed: pdf.
Instructions for Submitting a Regional Outlook
Please submit a total extent for the Alaskan region, defined here as the combination of the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas and, for those interested, for Hudson Bay. If possible, use the definition from the NSIDC Arctic sea ice regional graphs and time series from the mask below, which is on the 25km by 25km polar stereographic projection used for the passive microwave satellite data. For questions about the format or this request, please contact Julienne Stroeve (stroeve [at] nsidc.org).
The mask is provided as a netcdf file here NSIDC Regional Mask (NC - 2 MB).
Please enter your Alaska Regional Outlook submission via the online form under item 2c. For those interested, the Hudson Bay Outlook submission should be entered under item 2d.
Also tell us the maximum possible ice extent if every ocean cell in your region were ice covered. For example, if your model uses exactly the same grid as the satellite data, the area would be 4.00x106 km2. The maximum possible extent is probably much larger than your actual Alaskan Regional Outlook. Be sure to exclude land and islands. Finally, with your entry to item 2c, please include how you defined the Alaskan region (or 2d for Hudson Bay): either say NSIDC definition, or if you must use your own definition, describe it. If you skip this step but provide full fields to the SIPN data portal (see next section), we’ll compute an Alaskan regional outlook for you.
Full Field of Sea Ice Forecasts Submission to New SIPN Data Portal
We strongly encourage all participants whose methods provide information at the local scale to provide full spatial fields. Prior to 2018, we asked contributors to email forecast fields of sea ice probability and first ice-free day to us, but now we are requesting full raw fields of sea ice concentration (you may additionally submit post processed fields and/or sea ice thickness) so we can compute these metrics for you, as well as additional regional analysis for the Sea Ice Outlook. The data portal will allow the SIPN community to access the data portal to conduct their own analysis of data that are deemed sharable by the participant who contributed the data.
To submit full spatial fields, contact Ed Blanchard (ed [at] atmos.uw.edu) to get the password for ftp. For more information, see the SIPN Data Portal. To see examples and definitions of the sea ice probability, first ice-free day and date of ice advance metrics, see Metrics for the Sea Ice Outlook.
Associated Effort – Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment
Contributions are again also invited to the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx, 2017-2020) - a community effort to collect and analyze Arctic sea-ice drift forecasts at lead times from days to a year. The forecasts target drifting sea-ice buoys and, ultimately, the trans-Arctic MOSAiC drift campaign. SIDFEx is aligned with the SIO such that modelling groups contributing to the Sea Ice Outlook can contribute to SIDFEx relatively easily by computing trajectories for Lagrangian tracers.
Tentative Schedule For Sea Ice Outlook 2019 Reports
Tentative Schedule for Sea Ice Outlook 2019 Reports
2019 SIO Plan Overview and Tentative Schedule Announced
- 10 May 2019 (Friday): Sent to Community
JUNE REPORT: (Based on May data)
- 20 May 2019 (Monday): Call for Contributions for June Report
- 12 June 2019 (Wednesday): Contributions Due for June Report
- 21 June 2019 (Friday): June Report Released
JULY REPORT: (Based on May and June data)
- 28 June 2019 (Friday): Call for Contributions for July Report
- 12 July 2019 (Friday): Contributions Due for July Report
- 24 July 2019 (Wednesday): July Report Released
AUGUST REPORT: (Based on May, June, and July data)
- 29 July 2019 (Monday): Call for Contributions for August Report
- 14 August 2019 (Wednesday): Contributions Due for August Report
- 23 August 2019 (Friday): August Report Released
POST-SEASON INTERIM REPORT:
- Focus on performance of Outlooks as compared to sea ice minimum.
- Developed following the conclusion of the retreat season.
- Published in mid-October 2019.
POST-SEASON FINAL REPORT
- Analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent during the 2019 melt season.
- Initial content developed through December 2019.
- Bulk of content and figures developed after AGU 2019 meetings (mid- to late-January 2020).
- Published late February 2020.
Contact: Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org)