Sea Ice Prediction Network

The 2021 July Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2021 July report, 41 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, eight also included predictions for pan-Antarctic, eight included predictions for the Alaska Region, and 14 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions on current conditions in the Arctic, ocean heat, predictions of sea-Ice probability and ice-free dates, initial conditions for those forecasts, Arctic regional sea-ice extent, Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies, and Antarctic contributions.

For the pan-Arctic, the median July Outlook value for September 2021 sea-ice extent is 4.36 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.09 and 4.52 million square kilometers. The median is close to the 2021 June Outlook, of 4.37 million square kilometers. The observed 2020 September sea-ice extent was 4.00 million square kilometers.