Starting in 2015, SIPN is accepting informal and pre-season contributions to the 2015 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). These contributions will be in addition to the regular SIO monthly reports in June, July, and August that synthesize predictions for the September monthly average extent of Arctic sea ice.
The informal contributions offer a forum for sharing information on sea ice parameters other than extent and/or for other time periods than what is included in the regular monthly reports.
Contributor: Andrew Slater, National Snow and Ice Data Center
Contributed on 9 May 2015
Slater's early contribution, Probabilistic Ice Extent, provides a 50-day lead-time forecast of Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
Slater's contribution is available in operational mode at:
Contributor: Frank Bosse, public outlook
Contributed on 24 May 2016
For his early forecast of the September 2015 sea ice extent, Bosse used two variables: The Heat Content of the arctic ocean northward 65 deg. N from the summer of 2014 and the amount of sea ice volume (PIOMAS) in the end of the winter (28 February 2015).
PDF of Bosse Contribution:
SIPN welcomes pre-season and informal contributions with predictions, data, or comments on:
Sea ice conditions, such as September extent, maps of sea ice probability and first ice-free day, or any other sea ice parameter based on early-season data. Please see last year's call for contributions for more information on maps of sea ice probability: http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2014/august/call
Other examples of informal contributions might include:
- Sea ice extent or maps of sea ice probability in any month—not just September.
- Sea ice parameters during break-up (e.g., maps of melt onset, melt pond fraction).
- Sea ice freeze-up dates (e.g., maps of first day when ice concentration is 15%).
- Seasonal climate forecasts (e.g., temperature, North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, El Nino Southern Oscillation) that may help guide ice forecasts.
- Other information on Arctic sea ice conditions or predictions that do not otherwise fit within the regular monthly reports.
Please include a definition of the parameter(s) for which you are sending information. Contributions will be posted to a webpage on the SIPN website and will be accepted immediately and throughout the season. All types and formats of scientific contributions are welcome.
Contributions and questions should be sent to: Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS: betsy [at] arcus.org
Contributions may be sent in any form, including in MS Word, PDF, or email text.