Sea Ice Prediction Network News

The SIPN2 leadership team hosted a virtual forum for SIO Contributors to share information about sea-ice forecast methods, discuss related challenges, and identify activities and products that could advance forecasting skill. Participation was by invitation only and limited to individuals who recently submitted forecasts to the SIO. Meeting Products are under development and will be announced via the SIPN mailing list.

For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).

The 2020 August Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2020 August report, 39 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 10 included predictions for the Alaska Region and 7 included pan-Antarctic predictions. We received 13 submissions of sea-ice probability and 9 submissions of first ice-free date, and for the August report, ice advance dates were computed from four contributions. For 2020 we also invited contributors to submit initial conditions (sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness) of their forecasts to better understand how observations are being used in forecasts.

For the pan-Arctic, the median August Outlook value for September 2020 sea-ice extent is 4.30 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.5 million square kilometers. The median is close to the observed 2019 September sea-ice extent of 4.32 million square kilometers.

The 2020 July Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2020 July report, 38 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 10 included predictions for the Alaska Region and 7 included pan-Antarctic predictions. Additionally, we received 13 submissions of sea-ice probability and 10 submissions of first ice-free date. New this year, the report includes ice-free conditions for the Hudson Bay region; the September sea-ice concentration contour in the Fram Strait region, motivated by the MOSAiC expedition; and we invited contributors to submit initial conditions (sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness) of their forecasts to better understand how observations are being used in forecasts.

For the pan-Arctic, the median July Outlook value for September 2020 sea-ice extent is 4.36 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.6 million square kilometers. The median is close to the observed 2019 September sea-ice extent of 4.32 million square kilometers.

SAVE THE DATE for a Sea Ice Prediction Network webinar titled “Machine Learning—Challenges and Opportunities for Applications in Sea-Ice Prediction” scheduled for Wednesday, 29 July 2020 from 8:00 9:00 am (AKDT). This webinar will focus on the use of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, on how such approaches can be applied in cryospheric research, as well as related challenges and limitations. Discussion will include the use of advanced machine learning algorithms in climate science with attention on how to improve the prediction of future sea-ice. Time for participant questions will follow the presentations. Registration instructions will be announced closer to the event.

The 2020 June Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2020 June report, 33 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions eight included predictions for pan-Antarctic and the Alaska Region. Additionally, we received 13 submissions of sea-ice probability and ten submissions of first ice-free date. New this year, the report includes ice-free conditions for the Hudson Bay region; September sea-ice concentration contour in the Fram Strait region, motivated by the MOSAiC expedition; and we invited contributors to submit initial conditions (sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness) of their forecasts to better understand how observations are being used in forecasts.

For the pan-Arctic, the median June Outlook value for September 2020 sea-ice extent is 4.33 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.06 and 4.59 million square kilometers. The median is close to the 2019 June Outlook, of 4.40 million square kilometers, and to the observed 2019 September sea-ice extent of 4.32 million square kilometers.

The Sea Ice Prediction Network – Phase 2 (SIPN2) invites registration for an open webinar entitled "Understanding Stakeholder Information Needs for Sea-Ice Forecasting." This webinar will include an overview of stakeholder groups and their information needs, examples of how stakeholder groups deal with sea-ice and relate to sea-ice information, and discussion of how information gathered through stakeholder engagement can be of use to the sea-ice forecasting community. Time for participant questions will follow the presentations. This one-hour event will be held on Tuesday, 28 April 2020, starting at 8:00 a.m. (AKDT).

The preliminary draft of the 2019 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Full Post-Season Report is now available for community review and comment prior to final publication in mid-February 2020. Sea Ice Prediction Network members are invited to provide comments on all sections of the draft. To provide input, please reference the line number(s) in the document that correspond to your comments. Comments may be submitted via email to Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).

Deadline for comment submission: Monday, 10 February 2020 at 6:00 pm (AKST).

For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).

The 2019 Sea Ice Outlook Interim Post-Season Report is now available. The September monthly averaged sea ice extent at the end of the 2019 summer melt season was 4.32 million square kilometers. This is the third lowest in the satellite record that began in 1979.

This interim report is intended as a quick postseason update that summarizes how the outlooks did in comparison to the observed September monthly mean extent. A full post-season report, to be published in February 2020, will include an in-depth analysis of factors impacting sea ice this past summer, further discussion about the outlooks, comments on regional observation, predicted spatial fields, Antarctic contributions, and a summary from the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx).

The Sea Ice Prediction Network – Phase 2 (SIPN2) invites registration for an open webinar entitled "An Overview of European Union-Funded Project APPLICATE" featuring Pablo Ortega, Earth Science Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center. This webinar will provide an overview on the EU-Funded H2020 project APPLICATE, whose main goal is to advance our capability to predict the weather and climate in the Arctic and beyond. It will present a few examples on the seasonal prediction activities carried out within the project. These include an analysis on how the different forecast errors are developed in the EC-Earth system, a multi-model comparison of predictive skill in all the seasonal forecast systems participating to the Consortium, results from empirical statistical models used for benchmarking, and experiments exploring the added-value of increasing both the atmospheric and oceanic resolution on seasonal prediction. This event will be held on Tuesday, 17 September 2019 from 8:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. AKDT.