Sea Ice Prediction Network News

The August report for the 2016 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available! The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales. Organizers thank all who contributed to the 40 Outlooks received for this report - a record number of contributions! This month the median pan-Arctic extent Outlook for September 2016 sea ice extent is 4.4 million square kilometers. Contributions are based on a range of methods from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. This report includes discussions about dynamical model contributions and their variance, current conditions, recent atmospheric conditions, probability forecasts for late summer meteorological conditions, and comments on sea ice conditions in the Alaska sector as well as the Outlooks that focused on that region; key statements from each individual Outlook; and links to view or download individual contributions.

An article about SIPN, "Scientists Rally to Predict Arctic Sea Ice Melt" was published by journalist Hannah Hoag in Arctic Deeply.

The July report for the 2016 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available! The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales. Organizers thank all who contributed to the 37 Outlooks received for this report. The median pan-Arctic Outlook value for September 2016 sea ice extent is 4.3 million square kilometers. Contributions are based on a range of methods from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The report includes discussion about dynamical model contributions and their variance, which has narrowed since the June report; discussion on predicted spatial fields, sea ice probability (SIP), and the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of dynamical models; discussion on current conditions, recent atmospheric conditions, and probability forecasts for late summer meteorological conditions; key statements from each individual Outlook; and links to view or download individual contributions.

The June report for the 2016 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available! The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales. Organizers thank the 32 groups that contributed Outlooks to this report. The median Outlook value for September 2016 sea ice extent is 4.28 million square kilometers. Contributions are based on a range of methods from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The report includes discussion about dynamical model contributions and their variance, which is substantially less than last year; discussion on predicted spatial fields, sea ice probability (SIP), and the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of dynamical models; discussion on current conditions including this spring's record low sea ice conditions, observations of sea ice thickness, and atmospheric conditions; key statements from each individual Outlook; and links to view or download individual contributions.

Web streaming will be available for the 2016 Polar Prediction Workshop, which will be held 4-6 May 2016 at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York. The workshop will focus on: 1. sources of polar predictability on sub-seasonal to inter-annual timescales, 2. sea ice prediction, and 3. operational and research efforts. The web streaming link as well as the workshop agenda, participant list, and presentation and poster abstracts, are available on the workshop website.

The tentative agenda for the 2016 Polar Prediction Workshop as well as presentation and poster abstracts are now available online. The workshop will focus on sources of polar predictability on sub-seasonal to inter-annual timescales, sea ice prediction, and operational and research efforts. It will convene 4-6 May 2016 at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York.

Registration is now available for the Sea Ice Prediction Network webinar, "Challenges and Best Practices: Sea Ice Thickness Distribution as a Rosetta Stone for Cross-Scale Communication." Cathleen Geiger, University of Delaware, will present discussion on the consistency of sea ice thickness distributions across different horizontal length scales, measurement accuracy, and challenges related to estimating sea ice thickness across many length scales. The event will be held Tuesday, 22 March 2016 from 9:00-10:00 a.m. AKDT.

The National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) released a report last month highlighting SEARCH's Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) as a key accomplishment in the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee's efforts to enhance interagency cooperation. With diverse support from the Department of Energy, NASA, NOAA, the National Science Foundation, and the Office of Naval Research, SIPN was celebrated for its collaborative interagency approach to improving the predictive skill of Arctic sea ice models.

The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) held an open workshop to discuss data needs for sea ice forecasting on 17 December during the 2015 American Geophysical Union (AGU) fall meetings. This workshop focused on how SIPN and others who provide data observations can best serve the needs of the forecasting community. The goal of the workshop was to help identify data needs for model initialization and verification, which available data products are useful—and why, what improvements to existing data products would make for better utilizations (e.g., change in formatting), what additional observations are needed, and how limited spatial scale data from ship observations etc. are being used.