Sea Ice Prediction Network News

The 2018 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Post-Season Report is now available online. This report centers around forecasts of pan-Arctic September minimum sea ice extent, while also including information about forecasts of sea ice probability and a synthesis of observed Arctic conditions from June to September 2018. It also includes a review of forecasts for the Alaskan sector; an evaluation of the SIO forecast skill; discussions about Antarctic maxima sea ice extent forecasts; the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment; an overview of sea ice forecasting needs of the Alaska marine shipping industry; and ideas of how to continue efforts to understand sea ice predictability and how to create information products that are accessible to stakeholders so that the science can be used in decision making to improve outcomes. The SIO is a community network activity led by the Sea Ice Prediction Network-Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team with contributions from key partners.

SIPN2 will convene an open meeting on Tuesday, 11 December from 12:30-1:30 p.m. in Washington, D.C., in conjunction with the AGU Fall Meeting, to promote knowledge exchange and collaboration among members of sea ice research community. A brief overview of the 2018 Arctic sea ice/Sea Ice Outlook season will also be provided. All those interested in Arctic sea ice prediction are welcome to attend!

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, has released a 2018 projected onset of sea ice freeze-up on the Chukchi Sea continental shelf. Projection: Freeze onset on the Chukchi Sea continental shelf northwest of Icy Cape will begin the second week of December 2018. This is approximately 47 days later than the long-term mean (1981-2016).

The August report for the 2018 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available online. The goal of the SIO is to improve sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales. For the August report, 39 contributions were received that include pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 10 also included pan-Antarctic predictions and 11 included predictions for Alaskan waters. For the Arctic, the median August Outlook value for a September 2018 sea ice extent projection is 4.6 million square kilometers.

The August report includes an overview of projections of total September Arctic ice extent; a section about predicted spatial fields with discussion on sea ice probability (SIP) and the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of dynamical models; a section on current conditions and atmospheric conditions; a section discussing regional sea ice conditions; and a section discussing Antarctic sea ice extent forecasts.

This report is the product of the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) effort.

The July report for the 2018 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available online. The goal of the SIO is to improve sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales. For the July report, 39 contributions were received that include pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 9 also included pan-Antarctic predictions and 11 included predictions for Alaskan waters. For the Arctic, the median July Outlook value for a September 2018 sea ice extent projection is 4.7 million square kilometers.

The July report includes an overview of projections of total September Arctic ice extent; a section about predicted spatial fields with discussion on sea ice probability (SIP) and the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of dynamical models; a section on current conditions and atmospheric conditions; a section discussing regional sea ice conditions; and a section discussing Antarctic sea ice extent forecasts.

The July report is the product of the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) effort. The goal of the previous SIPN1 was to enhance scientific discussion on the physics that control summer sea ice extents. In SIPN2 there is a further analysis of quantitatively comparing model forecast output.

The June report for the 2018 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available online. The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales. For June, we received 34 contributions that include pan-Arctic predictions, of those contributions 10 also included pan-Antarctic predictions and 11 included predictions for Alaskan waters. We received one additional contribution with a regional focus on the Nares Strait. For the Arctic, the median June Outlook value for a September 2018 sea ice extent projection is 4.6 million square kilometers. The June report includes analysis of the contributions, predicted spatial fields with discussion on sea ice probability (SIP) and the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of dynamical models; a section on current conditions with discussion on this winter's record low sea ice conditions and atmospheric conditions; a section discussion regional ice conditions; and a section discussing Antarctic sea ice extent forecasts.

The Sea Ice Prediction Network is now funded through a new collaborative proposal, "Advancing Predictability of Sea Ice: Phase 2 of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN2)". SIPN2 will result in a better quantification of the role of oceanic heat and climate variations in the Pacific sector of the Arctic; new observational-based sea-ice products; and activities to improve seasonal predictability of Arctic sea ice, the limits of this predictability, and the economic value of forecasts for stakeholders.

An "Arctic Sea Ice Prediction Stakeholders Workshop" will be held on Monday, 22 January 2018 in conjunction with the Arctic Frontiers Conference in Tromso, Norway. This workshop will bring together sea ice stakeholders and forecasters to:
1) Assess the value of forecasts by the user community.
2) Determine if and how ice forecasts are currently being used in decision making.
3) Communicate the relevant metrics needed by various stakeholders.
4) Identify where improvements in sea ice forecasts would help stakeholders make decisions.
5) Communicate the limits and opportunities of current forecasting systems.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, released a 2017 Projected onset of sea ice freeze-up on the Chukchi Sea continental shelf northwest of Icy Cape will begin near the end of November to the first week of December. This is approximately 36 days later than the long-term mean (1981-2016). The metric is defined by sea-ice concentration reaching 30% as determined by passive microwave observation.