Sea Ice Prediction Network News

The Sea Ice Prediction Network-Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces a call for registration for the upcoming webinar and discussion 2021 Sea Ice Outlook Post-Season Review. This 90-minute webinar will be held on Monday, 11 October from 9:00 am to 10:30 am (Alaska Daylight Time/ UTC−08:00). The webinar will provide a post-season review and discussion of the 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) and lessons learned. Registration is required and free of charge.

The 2021 August Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2021 August report, 45 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, nine also included predictions for pan-Antarctic, nine included predictions for the Alaska Region, and 15 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions on current conditions in the Arctic; ocean heat conditions; predictions of Arctic sea-ice probability, ice-free dates, ice-advance dates, and initial conditions for those forecasts; Arctic regional sea-ice extent; Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies; and Antarctic contributions.

For the pan-Arctic, the median August Outlook value for September 2021 sea-ice extent is 4.39 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.5 million square kilometers. The forecasts continue to support a September 2021 mean sea-ice extent that is well above the September 2020 value of 4.00 million square kilometers.

The 2021 July Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2021 July report, 41 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, eight also included predictions for pan-Antarctic, eight included predictions for the Alaska Region, and 14 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions on current conditions in the Arctic, ocean heat, predictions of sea-Ice probability and ice-free dates, initial conditions for those forecasts, Arctic regional sea-ice extent, Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies, and Antarctic contributions.

For the pan-Arctic, the median July Outlook value for September 2021 sea-ice extent is 4.36 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.09 and 4.52 million square kilometers. The median is close to the 2021 June Outlook, of 4.37 million square kilometers. The observed 2020 September sea-ice extent was 4.00 million square kilometers.

The 2021 June Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2021 June report, 38 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, eight also included predictions for pan-Antarctic, seven included predictions for the Alaska Region, and 14 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes new discussions on Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies, SIO contributor motivations, and the emerging pattern in the Sea Ice Outlooks.

For the pan-Arctic, the median June Outlook value for September 2021 sea-ice extent is 4.37 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.07 and 4.61 million square kilometers. The median is close to the 2020 June Outlook, of 4.33 million square kilometers. The observed 2020 September sea-ice extent was 3.92 million square kilometers.

The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team announces the Call for Contributions to the 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) June Report (based on May data). The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Post-Season reports focus on performance of the Outlooks, analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent, and scientific methods for predicting seasonal conditions.

Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Friday, 11 June 2021 (firm).

The SIPN2 leadership team hosted a virtual forum for SIO Contributors to share information about sea-ice forecast methods, discuss related challenges, and identify activities and products that could advance forecasting skill. Participation was by invitation only and limited to individuals who recently submitted forecasts to the SIO. Meeting Products are under development and will be announced via the SIPN mailing list.

For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).

The 2020 August Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2020 August report, 39 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 10 included predictions for the Alaska Region and 7 included pan-Antarctic predictions. We received 13 submissions of sea-ice probability and 9 submissions of first ice-free date, and for the August report, ice advance dates were computed from four contributions. For 2020 we also invited contributors to submit initial conditions (sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness) of their forecasts to better understand how observations are being used in forecasts.

For the pan-Arctic, the median August Outlook value for September 2020 sea-ice extent is 4.30 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.5 million square kilometers. The median is close to the observed 2019 September sea-ice extent of 4.32 million square kilometers.

The 2020 July Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2020 July report, 38 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 10 included predictions for the Alaska Region and 7 included pan-Antarctic predictions. Additionally, we received 13 submissions of sea-ice probability and 10 submissions of first ice-free date. New this year, the report includes ice-free conditions for the Hudson Bay region; the September sea-ice concentration contour in the Fram Strait region, motivated by the MOSAiC expedition; and we invited contributors to submit initial conditions (sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness) of their forecasts to better understand how observations are being used in forecasts.

For the pan-Arctic, the median July Outlook value for September 2020 sea-ice extent is 4.36 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.6 million square kilometers. The median is close to the observed 2019 September sea-ice extent of 4.32 million square kilometers.

SAVE THE DATE for a Sea Ice Prediction Network webinar titled “Machine Learning—Challenges and Opportunities for Applications in Sea-Ice Prediction” scheduled for Wednesday, 29 July 2020 from 8:00 9:00 am (AKDT). This webinar will focus on the use of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, on how such approaches can be applied in cryospheric research, as well as related challenges and limitations. Discussion will include the use of advanced machine learning algorithms in climate science with attention on how to improve the prediction of future sea-ice. Time for participant questions will follow the presentations. Registration instructions will be announced closer to the event.