Sea Ice Prediction Network News
2019 August Sea Ice Outlook Report Available
The 2019 August Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas; the Outlook is not an operational forecast.
A record number of 42 Pan-Arctic outlook contributions were received for the August report. Of those contributions 7 also included pan-Antarctic predictions, 11 included regional predictions for Alaskan waters, and 5 were for the Hudson Bay region.
For the August report the pan-Arctic median value for September 2019 sea-ice extent is 4.22 million square kilometers and with quartile values of 4.0 and 4.4 million square kilometers.Although pan-Arctic sea-ice extent was tracking very close to the record minimum of 2012 from mid-June through mid-August, the rate of melt slowed down in late August. A record minimum extent is not expected for 2019, unless late summer storm activity consolidates ice extent.
SIPN2 Webinar Registration: An Overview of European Union-Funded Project APPLICATE
The Sea Ice Prediction Network – Phase 2 (SIPN2) invites registration for an open webinar entitled "An Overview of European Union-Funded Project APPLICATE" featuring Pablo Ortega, Earth Science Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center. This webinar will provide an overview on the EU-Funded H2020 project APPLICATE, whose main goal is to advance our capability to predict the weather and climate in the Arctic and beyond. It will present a few examples on the seasonal prediction activities carried out within the project. These include an analysis on how the different forecast errors are developed in the EC-Earth system, a multi-model comparison of predictive skill in all the seasonal forecast systems participating to the Consortium, results from empirical statistical models used for benchmarking, and experiments exploring the added-value of increasing both the atmospheric and oceanic resolution on seasonal prediction. This event will be held on Tuesday, 17 September 2019 from 8:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. AKDT.
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces the call for contributions for the 2019 Sea Ice Outlook August report (based on May, June, and July data). The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas.
Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Extent Outlooks and any additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted for the 2019 August Outlook. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). For those interested, submissions for Hudson Bay are also accepted. Submissions that include spatial forecast maps are encouraged.
The 2019 SIO will also accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean. Informal sea ice observations and other parameters not included in the regular monthly reports are also invited. All participants whose methods provide information at the local scale to are encouraged to provide full spatial fields via the SIPN Data Portal.
Submission deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Wednesday, 14 August 2019 (firm).
2019 July Sea Ice Outlook Report Available
The 2019 July Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists.
For the 2019 July report, 39 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions 8 also included pan-Antarctic predictions, 10 included regional predictions for Alaskan waters, and 6 were for the Hudson Bay region.
For the pan-Arctic, the median July Outlook value for September 2019 sea-ice extent is 4.28 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.0 to 4.6 million square kilometers. As of the publication of this report, total Arctic extent was tracking below levels recorded in 2012, the year that ended up with the lowest September extent on record.
The Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas; the Outlook is not an operational forecast.
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces the call for contributions for the 2019 Sea Ice Outlook July report (based on May and June data). The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas.
Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Extent Outlooks and any additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted for the 2019 July Outlook. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). For those interested, submissions for Hudson Bay are also accepted. Submissions that include spatial forecast maps are encouraged.
The 2019 SIO will also accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean. Informal sea ice observations and other parameters not included in the regular monthly reports are also invited. All participants whose methods provide information at the local scale to are encouraged to provide full spatial fields via the SIPN Data Portal.
Submission deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Friday, 12 July 2019 (firm).
2019 June Sea Ice Outlook Report Available
The 2019 June Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists.
For the 2019 June report, 31 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions, of those contributions six (6) also included pan-Antarctic predictions, and nine (9) included predictions for Alaskan waters. This year, for the first time, there are also seven (7) predictions for the Hudson Bay region.
For the pan-Arctic, the median June Outlook value for September 2019 sea-ice extent is 4.40 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.2 and 4.8 million square kilometers (The individual outlooks are based on statistical, dynamical models, and heuristic methods. Projected extents are slightly lower compared with 2018 June outlook, but is about the same as in the 2017 June outlook (4.43 million square kilometers). he Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas; the Outlook is not an operational forecast.
Call for Contributions to the 2019 Sea Ice Outlook June Report
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces the call for contributions for the 2019 Sea Ice Outlook June report (based on May data). The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas.
Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Extent Outlooks and any additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted for the 2019 June Outlook. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). For those interested, submissions for Hudson Bay are also accepted. Submissions that include spatial forecast maps are encouraged.
The 2019 SIO will also accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean. Informal sea ice observations and other parameters not included in the regular monthly reports are also invited. All participants whose methods provide information at the local scale to are encouraged to provide full spatial fields via the SIPN Data Portal.
Submission deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Wednesday, 12 June 2019 (firm).
SIPN2 Webinar
The Sea Ice Prediction Network – Phase 2 (SIPN2) invites registration for an open webinar entitled "ICESat-2 over Sea Ice: Early Results" featuring Ron Kwok, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the ICESat-2 Team. The presentation will focus on one of NASA’s science objectives for the ICESat-2 altimetry mission—to provide observations to quantify changes and to add to previous satellite and airborne records of freeboard, thickness, and sea surface height of the ice-covered Arctic and Southern Oceans. This event will be held on Tuesday, 7 May 2019 from 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. AKDT.
2018 Sea Ice Outlook Post-Season Report Now Available
The 2018 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Post-Season Report is now available online. This report centers around forecasts of pan-Arctic September minimum sea ice extent, while also including information about forecasts of sea ice probability and a synthesis of observed Arctic conditions from June to September 2018. It also includes a review of forecasts for the Alaskan sector; an evaluation of the SIO forecast skill; discussions about Antarctic maxima sea ice extent forecasts; the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment; an overview of sea ice forecasting needs of the Alaska marine shipping industry; and ideas of how to continue efforts to understand sea ice predictability and how to create information products that are accessible to stakeholders so that the science can be used in decision making to improve outcomes. The SIO is a community network activity led by the Sea Ice Prediction Network-Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team with contributions from key partners.
2018 SIO Post-Season Report - Review Draft Available
The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN2) Project Team invites sea ice experts and members of the SIPN network to provide comments on the preliminary draft of the 2018 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) full post-season report. This draft report, a product of the SIPN2 Project Team led by Uma Bhatt, includes the main post-season analysis and discussion points. A PDF of the draft report is available online as well as instructions on how to submit comments.
SIPN2 Meeting at AGU Fall Meeting
SIPN2 will convene an open meeting on Tuesday, 11 December from 12:30-1:30 p.m. in Washington, D.C., in conjunction with the AGU Fall Meeting, to promote knowledge exchange and collaboration among members of sea ice research community. A brief overview of the 2018 Arctic sea ice/Sea Ice Outlook season will also be provided. All those interested in Arctic sea ice prediction are welcome to attend!
Sea Ice Outlook Interim Report
The Interim Post-Season Report for 2018 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available online. The goal of the SIO is to improve sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales. This interim report is intended as a quick post-season update that summarizes how the outlooks did in comparison to the observed minimum extent. The September monthly averaged sea ice extent was 4.71 million square kilometers, based on the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Sea Ice Index. The median extent of the 39 Outlook contributions for June, July, and August were 4.60, 4.70, and 4.57 million square kilometers, respectively. A full post-season report in January 2019 will include an in-depth analysis of factors impacting sea ice this season; further discussion about the outlooks; comments on regional observations, predicted spatial fields, Antarctic contributions; and a summary from the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment. This report is the product of the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) effort.
2018 Projected Freeze-up of Chukchi Sea Released
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, has released a 2018 projected onset of sea ice freeze-up on the Chukchi Sea continental shelf. Projection: Freeze onset on the Chukchi Sea continental shelf northwest of Icy Cape will begin the second week of December 2018. This is approximately 47 days later than the long-term mean (1981-2016).
Sea Ice Prediction Network
Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces registration for an open webinar on Tuesday, 11 September 9:00 am AK for “An Overview of MOSAiC - The Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate” with presenter Don Perovich, Dartmouth College. The presentation will provide an overview of MOSAiC, with special attention on the sea ice program.
2018 August Sea Ice Outlook Report Available
The August report for the 2018 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available online. The goal of the SIO is to improve sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales. For the August report, 39 contributions were received that include pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 10 also included pan-Antarctic predictions and 11 included predictions for Alaskan waters. For the Arctic, the median August Outlook value for a September 2018 sea ice extent projection is 4.6 million square kilometers.
The August report includes an overview of projections of total September Arctic ice extent; a section about predicted spatial fields with discussion on sea ice probability (SIP) and the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of dynamical models; a section on current conditions and atmospheric conditions; a section discussing regional sea ice conditions; and a section discussing Antarctic sea ice extent forecasts.
This report is the product of the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) effort.
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces the call for contributions for the 2018 Sea Ice Outlook August report. The Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Submissions are due Monday, 13 August 2018.
2018 July Sea Ice Outlook Report Available
The July report for the 2018 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available online. The goal of the SIO is to improve sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales. For the July report, 39 contributions were received that include pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 9 also included pan-Antarctic predictions and 11 included predictions for Alaskan waters. For the Arctic, the median July Outlook value for a September 2018 sea ice extent projection is 4.7 million square kilometers.
The July report includes an overview of projections of total September Arctic ice extent; a section about predicted spatial fields with discussion on sea ice probability (SIP) and the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of dynamical models; a section on current conditions and atmospheric conditions; a section discussing regional sea ice conditions; and a section discussing Antarctic sea ice extent forecasts.
The July report is the product of the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) effort. The goal of the previous SIPN1 was to enhance scientific discussion on the physics that control summer sea ice extents. In SIPN2 there is a further analysis of quantitatively comparing model forecast output.
Advancing Predictability of Sea Ice – SIPN2 Webinar Registration
Registration is now available for the SIPN2 webinar, Advancing Predictability of Sea Ice. This webinar will provide an overview of the SIPN2 main activities and an overview of the SIPN Data Portal for sea ice prediction. The event will held at 9:00am to 10:00am (AKDT) on Tuesday, 10 July 2018.
2018 June Sea Ice Outlook Report Available
The June report for the 2018 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available online. The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales. For June, we received 34 contributions that include pan-Arctic predictions, of those contributions 10 also included pan-Antarctic predictions and 11 included predictions for Alaskan waters. We received one additional contribution with a regional focus on the Nares Strait. For the Arctic, the median June Outlook value for a September 2018 sea ice extent projection is 4.6 million square kilometers. The June report includes analysis of the contributions, predicted spatial fields with discussion on sea ice probability (SIP) and the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of dynamical models; a section on current conditions with discussion on this winter's record low sea ice conditions and atmospheric conditions; a section discussion regional ice conditions; and a section discussing Antarctic sea ice extent forecasts.
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces the call for contributions for the 2018 Sea Ice Outlook June report (based on May data). The Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Submissions are due Monday, 11 June 2018.