Sea Ice Prediction Network News
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team announces an open Call for Contributions to the 2022 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) July Report and invites predictions for pan-Arctic, pan-Antarctic, and Alaskan regional September monthly mean sea-ice extent (based on May and June data). Submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas) are particularly encouraged. The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
July Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Wednesday, 13 July 2022 (firm).
Sea Ice Outlook June Report
The 2022 June Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2022 June report, 37 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, ten included predictions for the Alaska region and nine included predictions for pan-Antarctic. For the pan-Arctic, the median June Outlook value for September 2022 sea-ice extent is 4.57 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.34 and 4.90 million square kilometers. This is higher than the SIO forecasted value of September sea-ice extent for the past three years (2019-2021), but slightly below the median value of 4.60 million square kilometers cited by 2018 SIO June report.
For questions, contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team announces the Call for Contributions to the 2022 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) June Report (based on May data).
The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share ideas. Four monthly reports during the sea-ice retreat season will include a variety of contributions—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists—as well as brief related discussions. Organizers encourage all past contributors to submit Outlooks for 2022 and also hope to see new participants.
Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Monday, 13 June 2022 (Firm)
For questions, contact Betsy Turner-Bogren (betsy [at] arcus.org)
2021 Sea Ice Outlook Post-Season Report
The 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Post-Season Report is now available online. The SIO is a community network activity led by the Sea Ice Prediction Network-Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team with contributions from key partners. This report includes a review of the 2021 SIO contributions and sea-ice extent anomalies, discussions and analysis of observed Arctic conditions during the sea-ice retreat season, a review of Antarctic conditions and contributions, discussions of SIO forecast methods and skill relative to control forecasts, information about new data products for sea-ice forecasting, and a summary from the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx).
SIPN2 and SIO in the News!
News that "Scientists aim to improve sea ice predictions' accuracy, access" has been widely shared in the print and broadcast media. These stories are based on the December 2021 presentation by the SIPN2 Leadership Team,"A Community of Practice Approach to Improving and Communicating Seasonal Sea-Ice Forecasts" during the 2021 American Geophysical Union Fall Meetings.
For more information, see: "2022 Press/Media/Related Publications" on Presentations and Publications.
SIPN2 Presentation to AGU 2021
During the 2021 American Geophysical Union Fall Meetings in New Orleans, Louisiana; Uma Bhatt, SIPN2 Lead Project Principal Investigator, presented a talk entitled "A Community of Practice Approach to Improving and Communicating Seasonal Sea-Ice Forecasts." Her presentation was developed with input from, and on behalf of, the SIPN2 Project Team. A PDF of her five-minute presentation slides is available here.
Call for SIPN2 Webinar Registration
The Sea Ice Prediction Network-Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces a call for registration for the upcoming webinar and discussion 2021 Sea Ice Outlook Post-Season Review. This 90-minute webinar will be held on Monday, 11 October from 9:00 am to 10:30 am (Alaska Daylight Time/ UTC−08:00). The webinar will provide a post-season review and discussion of the 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) and lessons learned. Registration is required and free of charge.
2021 September Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available Online
The 2021 September Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
This September Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report—a new addition to the SIO season—was created in response to suggestions made during the 2021 January SIO Contributors Forum to solicit forecasts initialized in late August or early September for September mean Arctic sea-ice extent. The September SIO report provides a brief summary of the forecasts. The more comprehensive, full post-season report will be published in spring 2022.
For the pan-Arctic, the median September Outlook is 4.39 million square kilometers, equal to the August median and higher than the median of the June and July forecasts for 2021.
2021 August Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available Online
The 2021 August Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2021 August report, 45 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, nine also included predictions for pan-Antarctic, nine included predictions for the Alaska Region, and 15 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions on current conditions in the Arctic; ocean heat conditions; predictions of Arctic sea-ice probability, ice-free dates, ice-advance dates, and initial conditions for those forecasts; Arctic regional sea-ice extent; Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies; and Antarctic contributions.
For the pan-Arctic, the median August Outlook value for September 2021 sea-ice extent is 4.39 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.5 million square kilometers. The forecasts continue to support a September 2021 mean sea-ice extent that is well above the September 2020 value of 4.00 million square kilometers.
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team announces the Call for Contributions to the 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) August Report (based on May, June, and July data). The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Post-Season reports focus on performance of the Outlooks, analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent, and scientific methods for predicting seasonal conditions.
Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Friday, 13 August 2021 (firm).
2021 July Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available Online
The 2021 July Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2021 July report, 41 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, eight also included predictions for pan-Antarctic, eight included predictions for the Alaska Region, and 14 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions on current conditions in the Arctic, ocean heat, predictions of sea-Ice probability and ice-free dates, initial conditions for those forecasts, Arctic regional sea-ice extent, Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies, and Antarctic contributions.
For the pan-Arctic, the median July Outlook value for September 2021 sea-ice extent is 4.36 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.09 and 4.52 million square kilometers. The median is close to the 2021 June Outlook, of 4.37 million square kilometers. The observed 2020 September sea-ice extent was 4.00 million square kilometers.
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team announces the Call for Contributions to the 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) July Report (based on May and June data). The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Post-Season reports focus on performance of the Outlooks, analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent, and scientific methods for predicting seasonal conditions.
Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Monday, 12 July 2021 (firm).
2021 June Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available Online
The 2021 June Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2021 June report, 38 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, eight also included predictions for pan-Antarctic, seven included predictions for the Alaska Region, and 14 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes new discussions on Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies, SIO contributor motivations, and the emerging pattern in the Sea Ice Outlooks.
For the pan-Arctic, the median June Outlook value for September 2021 sea-ice extent is 4.37 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.07 and 4.61 million square kilometers. The median is close to the 2020 June Outlook, of 4.33 million square kilometers. The observed 2020 September sea-ice extent was 3.92 million square kilometers.
SIPN2 Webinar: Call for Registration
The Sea Ice Prediction Network-Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces an upcoming webinar, entitled "Prospects for Improved Regional Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice" that will be presented by Mitch Bushuk at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This webinar will provide an overview of a newly developed dynamical seasonal prediction system and its performance in predicting regional Arctic sea-ice conditions. The one-hour webinar will be held on Tuesday, 13 July 2021, starting at 9:00 a.m. (AKDT).
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team announces the Call for Contributions to the 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) June Report (based on May data). The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Post-Season reports focus on performance of the Outlooks, analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent, and scientific methods for predicting seasonal conditions.
Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Friday, 11 June 2021 (firm).
2020 Sea Ice Outlook Post-Season Report Now Available
The 2020 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Post-Season Report is now available online. The SIO is a community network activity led by the Sea Ice Prediction Network-Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team with contributions from key partners. This report includes in-depth discussions and analysis of factors impacting sea ice this past summer, the SIO contributions, regional observation, predicted spatial fields, Antarctic contributions, seasonal sea ice forecasting for the Alaska marine shipping industry, and a summary from the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx). This report also includes a discussion of lessons learned from the SIO Contributors Forum, and discussions regarding probabilistic assessment of the 2008-2020 Outlooks and an evaluation of SIO forecast skill relative to control forecasts.
SIO Contributors Forum
The SIPN2 leadership team hosted a virtual forum for SIO Contributors to share information about sea-ice forecast methods, discuss related challenges, and identify activities and products that could advance forecasting skill. Participation was by invitation only and limited to individuals who recently submitted forecasts to the SIO. Meeting Products are under development and will be announced via the SIPN mailing list.
For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).
2020 Sea Ice Outlook Interim Post-Season Report is Now Available Online
The 2020 Sea Ice Outlook Interim Post-Season Report is now available. The September monthly averaged sea ice extent at the end of the 2020 summer melt season was 3.92 million square kilometers. This is the second lowest in the satellite record that began in 1979.
This interim report is intended as a quick postseason update that summarizes how the outlooks did in comparison to the observed September monthly mean extent. A full post-season report, to be published in February 2021, will include an in-depth analysis of factors impacting sea ice this past summer, further discussion about the outlooks, comments on regional observation, predicted spatial fields, Antarctic contributions, and a summary from the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx).
2020 August Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available Online
The 2020 August Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2020 August report, 39 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 10 included predictions for the Alaska Region and 7 included pan-Antarctic predictions. We received 13 submissions of sea-ice probability and 9 submissions of first ice-free date, and for the August report, ice advance dates were computed from four contributions. For 2020 we also invited contributors to submit initial conditions (sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness) of their forecasts to better understand how observations are being used in forecasts.
For the pan-Arctic, the median August Outlook value for September 2020 sea-ice extent is 4.30 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.5 million square kilometers. The median is close to the observed 2019 September sea-ice extent of 4.32 million square kilometers.
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces the Call for Contributions for the 2020 Sea Ice Outlook August Report (based on May, June, and July data). The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas.
Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Extent Outlooks and any additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted for the 2020 August Outlook. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). All participants whose methods provide information at the local scale are encouraged to provide full spatial fields via the SIPN Data Portal. New for the August SIO Report: Forecasts for ice advance dates (IAD) will be calculated from the full spatial fields of sea ice concentration that extend through the ice-advance seasons.
The 2020 SIO will also accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean. Additionally, we encourage submissions to the associated effort of the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment.
Submission deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Wednesday, 12 July 2020 (firm).