Sea Ice Prediction Network News
Sea Ice Outlook: 2022 Post-Season Report
The 2022 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Post-Season Report is now available online. The (SIO) is a community network activity led by the Sea Ice Prediction Network-Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team with contributions from key partners. This report includes discussions of the 2022 observed Arctic sea-ice, atmospheric, and ocean heat conditions during the sea-ice retreat season; a review of the 2022 contributed forecasts for the pan-Arctic sea-ice extent and extent anomalies, pan-Arctic sea-ice probability, and sea-ice extent forecasts for Alaska regional seas and the Antarctic; a summary from the 2022 Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx); and brief discussion of next steps for the SIO and SIPN project.
Sea Ice Outlook September Report
The 2022 September Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team, provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2022 September SIO Report, 22 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, seven included predictions for the Alaska region, seven included predictions for pan-Antarctic, and 10 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions of the contributed forecasts for the pan-Arctic, Alaska region, and pan-Antarctic; Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies; predictions from spatial fields; and current conditions.
The median September Outlook value for September 2022 pan-Arctic sea-ice extent is 4.90 million square kilometers, which is higher than that from August (4.83 million square kilometers), July (4.64 million square kilometers), and June (4.57 million square kilometers).
For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team announces an open Call for Contributions to the 2022 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) September Report and invites predictions for pan-Arctic, pan-Antarctic, and Alaskan regional September monthly mean sea-ice extent (based on May, June, July, and August data). Submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas) are particularly encouraged. The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
September Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Monday, 12 September 2022 (firm).
Sea Ice Outlook August Report
The 2022 August Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team, provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2022 August report, 28 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, eight included predictions for the Alaska region, nine included predictions for pan-Antarctic, and 12 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions of the contributed forecasts for the pan-Arctic, Alaska region, and pan-Antarctic; Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies; predictions from spatial fields; and current condition.
The median August Outlook value for September 2022 pan-Arctic sea-ice extent is 4.83 million square kilometers, which is higher than that from July (4.64 million square kilometers) and June (4.57 million square kilometers).
For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team announces an open Call for Contributions to the 2022 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) August Report and invites predictions for pan-Arctic, pan-Antarctic, and Alaskan regional September monthly mean sea-ice extent (based on May, June, and July data). Submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas) are particularly encouraged. The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
August Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Monday, 15 August 2022 (firm).
Sea Ice Outlook July Report
The 2022 July Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team, provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2022 July report, 30 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, eight included predictions for the Alaska region, nine included predictions for pan-Antarctic, and 12 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions of the contributed forecasts for the pan-Arctic, Alaska region, and pan-Antarctic; Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies; predictions from spatial fields; and current condition.
The median July Outlook value for September 2022 pan-Arctic sea-ice extent is 4.64 million square kilometers, which is slightly higher than the median cited in the June report of 4.57 million square kilometers.
For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team announces an open Call for Contributions to the 2022 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) July Report and invites predictions for pan-Arctic, pan-Antarctic, and Alaskan regional September monthly mean sea-ice extent (based on May and June data). Submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas) are particularly encouraged. The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
July Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Wednesday, 13 July 2022 (firm).
Sea Ice Outlook June Report
The 2022 June Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2022 June report, 37 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, ten included predictions for the Alaska region and nine included predictions for pan-Antarctic. For the pan-Arctic, the median June Outlook value for September 2022 sea-ice extent is 4.57 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.34 and 4.90 million square kilometers. This is higher than the SIO forecasted value of September sea-ice extent for the past three years (2019-2021), but slightly below the median value of 4.60 million square kilometers cited by 2018 SIO June report.
For questions, contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team announces the Call for Contributions to the 2022 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) June Report (based on May data).
The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share ideas. Four monthly reports during the sea-ice retreat season will include a variety of contributions—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists—as well as brief related discussions. Organizers encourage all past contributors to submit Outlooks for 2022 and also hope to see new participants.
Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Monday, 13 June 2022 (Firm)
For questions, contact Betsy Turner-Bogren (betsy [at] arcus.org)
2021 Sea Ice Outlook Post-Season Report
The 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Post-Season Report is now available online. The SIO is a community network activity led by the Sea Ice Prediction Network-Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team with contributions from key partners. This report includes a review of the 2021 SIO contributions and sea-ice extent anomalies, discussions and analysis of observed Arctic conditions during the sea-ice retreat season, a review of Antarctic conditions and contributions, discussions of SIO forecast methods and skill relative to control forecasts, information about new data products for sea-ice forecasting, and a summary from the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx).
SIPN2 and SIO in the News!
News that "Scientists aim to improve sea ice predictions' accuracy, access" has been widely shared in the print and broadcast media. These stories are based on the December 2021 presentation by the SIPN2 Leadership Team,"A Community of Practice Approach to Improving and Communicating Seasonal Sea-Ice Forecasts" during the 2021 American Geophysical Union Fall Meetings.
For more information, see: "2022 Press/Media/Related Publications" on Presentations and Publications.
SIPN2 Presentation to AGU 2021
During the 2021 American Geophysical Union Fall Meetings in New Orleans, Louisiana; Uma Bhatt, SIPN2 Lead Project Principal Investigator, presented a talk entitled "A Community of Practice Approach to Improving and Communicating Seasonal Sea-Ice Forecasts." Her presentation was developed with input from, and on behalf of, the SIPN2 Project Team. A PDF of her five-minute presentation slides is available here.
Call for SIPN2 Webinar Registration
The Sea Ice Prediction Network-Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces a call for registration for the upcoming webinar and discussion 2021 Sea Ice Outlook Post-Season Review. This 90-minute webinar will be held on Monday, 11 October from 9:00 am to 10:30 am (Alaska Daylight Time/ UTC−08:00). The webinar will provide a post-season review and discussion of the 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) and lessons learned. Registration is required and free of charge.
2021 September Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available Online
The 2021 September Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
This September Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report—a new addition to the SIO season—was created in response to suggestions made during the 2021 January SIO Contributors Forum to solicit forecasts initialized in late August or early September for September mean Arctic sea-ice extent. The September SIO report provides a brief summary of the forecasts. The more comprehensive, full post-season report will be published in spring 2022.
For the pan-Arctic, the median September Outlook is 4.39 million square kilometers, equal to the August median and higher than the median of the June and July forecasts for 2021.
2021 August Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available Online
The 2021 August Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2021 August report, 45 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, nine also included predictions for pan-Antarctic, nine included predictions for the Alaska Region, and 15 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions on current conditions in the Arctic; ocean heat conditions; predictions of Arctic sea-ice probability, ice-free dates, ice-advance dates, and initial conditions for those forecasts; Arctic regional sea-ice extent; Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies; and Antarctic contributions.
For the pan-Arctic, the median August Outlook value for September 2021 sea-ice extent is 4.39 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.5 million square kilometers. The forecasts continue to support a September 2021 mean sea-ice extent that is well above the September 2020 value of 4.00 million square kilometers.
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team announces the Call for Contributions to the 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) August Report (based on May, June, and July data). The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Post-Season reports focus on performance of the Outlooks, analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent, and scientific methods for predicting seasonal conditions.
Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Friday, 13 August 2021 (firm).
2021 July Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available Online
The 2021 July Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2021 July report, 41 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, eight also included predictions for pan-Antarctic, eight included predictions for the Alaska Region, and 14 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions on current conditions in the Arctic, ocean heat, predictions of sea-Ice probability and ice-free dates, initial conditions for those forecasts, Arctic regional sea-ice extent, Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies, and Antarctic contributions.
For the pan-Arctic, the median July Outlook value for September 2021 sea-ice extent is 4.36 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.09 and 4.52 million square kilometers. The median is close to the 2021 June Outlook, of 4.37 million square kilometers. The observed 2020 September sea-ice extent was 4.00 million square kilometers.
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team announces the Call for Contributions to the 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) July Report (based on May and June data). The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Post-Season reports focus on performance of the Outlooks, analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent, and scientific methods for predicting seasonal conditions.
Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Monday, 12 July 2021 (firm).
2021 June Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available Online
The 2021 June Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2021 June report, 38 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, eight also included predictions for pan-Antarctic, seven included predictions for the Alaska Region, and 14 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes new discussions on Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies, SIO contributor motivations, and the emerging pattern in the Sea Ice Outlooks.
For the pan-Arctic, the median June Outlook value for September 2021 sea-ice extent is 4.37 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.07 and 4.61 million square kilometers. The median is close to the 2020 June Outlook, of 4.33 million square kilometers. The observed 2020 September sea-ice extent was 3.92 million square kilometers.
SIPN2 Webinar: Call for Registration
The Sea Ice Prediction Network-Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces an upcoming webinar, entitled "Prospects for Improved Regional Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice" that will be presented by Mitch Bushuk at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This webinar will provide an overview of a newly developed dynamical seasonal prediction system and its performance in predicting regional Arctic sea-ice conditions. The one-hour webinar will be held on Tuesday, 13 July 2021, starting at 9:00 a.m. (AKDT).