Sea Ice Prediction Network News
2020 Sea Ice Outlook Interim Post-Season Report is Now Available Online
The 2020 Sea Ice Outlook Interim Post-Season Report is now available. The September monthly averaged sea ice extent at the end of the 2020 summer melt season was 3.92 million square kilometers. This is the second lowest in the satellite record that began in 1979.
This interim report is intended as a quick postseason update that summarizes how the outlooks did in comparison to the observed September monthly mean extent. A full post-season report, to be published in February 2021, will include an in-depth analysis of factors impacting sea ice this past summer, further discussion about the outlooks, comments on regional observation, predicted spatial fields, Antarctic contributions, and a summary from the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx).
2020 August Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available Online
The 2020 August Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2020 August report, 39 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 10 included predictions for the Alaska Region and 7 included pan-Antarctic predictions. We received 13 submissions of sea-ice probability and 9 submissions of first ice-free date, and for the August report, ice advance dates were computed from four contributions. For 2020 we also invited contributors to submit initial conditions (sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness) of their forecasts to better understand how observations are being used in forecasts.
For the pan-Arctic, the median August Outlook value for September 2020 sea-ice extent is 4.30 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.5 million square kilometers. The median is close to the observed 2019 September sea-ice extent of 4.32 million square kilometers.
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces the Call for Contributions for the 2020 Sea Ice Outlook August Report (based on May, June, and July data). The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas.
Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Extent Outlooks and any additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted for the 2020 August Outlook. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). All participants whose methods provide information at the local scale are encouraged to provide full spatial fields via the SIPN Data Portal. New for the August SIO Report: Forecasts for ice advance dates (IAD) will be calculated from the full spatial fields of sea ice concentration that extend through the ice-advance seasons.
The 2020 SIO will also accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean. Additionally, we encourage submissions to the associated effort of the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment.
Submission deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Wednesday, 12 July 2020 (firm).
2020 July Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available Online
The 2020 July Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2020 July report, 38 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 10 included predictions for the Alaska Region and 7 included pan-Antarctic predictions. Additionally, we received 13 submissions of sea-ice probability and 10 submissions of first ice-free date. New this year, the report includes ice-free conditions for the Hudson Bay region; the September sea-ice concentration contour in the Fram Strait region, motivated by the MOSAiC expedition; and we invited contributors to submit initial conditions (sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness) of their forecasts to better understand how observations are being used in forecasts.
For the pan-Arctic, the median July Outlook value for September 2020 sea-ice extent is 4.36 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.6 million square kilometers. The median is close to the observed 2019 September sea-ice extent of 4.32 million square kilometers.
SIPN2 Webinar - Call for Registration
The Sea Ice Prediction Network – Phase 2 (SIPN2) invites registration for an open webinar entitled “Machine Learning—Challenges and Opportunities for Applications in Sea-Ice Prediction.” This webinar will focus on the use of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, on how such approaches can be applied in cryospheric research, as well as related challenges and limitations. Discussion will include the use of advanced machine learning algorithms in climate science with attention on how to improve the prediction of future sea-ice. Time for participant questions will follow the presentations. This one-hour event will be held on Wednesday, 29 July 2020 starting at 8:00 am (AKDT).
SIPN2 Webinar
SAVE THE DATE for a Sea Ice Prediction Network webinar titled “Machine Learning—Challenges and Opportunities for Applications in Sea-Ice Prediction” scheduled for Wednesday, 29 July 2020 from 8:00 9:00 am (AKDT). This webinar will focus on the use of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, on how such approaches can be applied in cryospheric research, as well as related challenges and limitations. Discussion will include the use of advanced machine learning algorithms in climate science with attention on how to improve the prediction of future sea-ice. Time for participant questions will follow the presentations. Registration instructions will be announced closer to the event.
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces the Call for Contributions for the 2020 Sea Ice Outlook July Report (based on May and June data). The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Extent Outlooks and any additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted for the 2020 July Outlook. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). All participants whose methods provide information at the local scale to are encouraged to provide full spatial fields via the SIPN Data Portal. First ice-free dates (IFD) for Hudson Bay will be calculated from the full spatial fields that cover this region. For those interested, submissions the September 2020 80% sea ice concentration contour for Fram Strait are also invited. The 2020 SIO will also accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean. Additionally, we encourage submissions to the associated effort of the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment.
Submission deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Monday, 13 July 2020 (Firm).
2020 June Sea Ice Outlook Report is Now Available
The 2020 June Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.
For the 2020 June report, 33 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions eight included predictions for pan-Antarctic and the Alaska Region. Additionally, we received 13 submissions of sea-ice probability and ten submissions of first ice-free date. New this year, the report includes ice-free conditions for the Hudson Bay region; September sea-ice concentration contour in the Fram Strait region, motivated by the MOSAiC expedition; and we invited contributors to submit initial conditions (sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness) of their forecasts to better understand how observations are being used in forecasts.
For the pan-Arctic, the median June Outlook value for September 2020 sea-ice extent is 4.33 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.06 and 4.59 million square kilometers. The median is close to the 2019 June Outlook, of 4.40 million square kilometers, and to the observed 2019 September sea-ice extent of 4.32 million square kilometers.
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces the Call for Contributions for the 2020 Sea Ice Outlook June Report (based on May data). The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas.
Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Extent Outlooks and any additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted for the 2020 June Outlook. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). All participants whose methods provide information at the local scale to are encouraged to provide full spatial fields via the SIPN Data Portal. First ice-free dates (IFD) for Hudson Bay will be calculated from the full spatial fields that cover this region. For those interested, submissions the September 2020 80% sea ice concentration contour for Fram Strait are also invited.
The 2020 SIO will also accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean. Additionally, we encourage submissions to the associated effort of the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment.
Submission deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Wednesday, 10 June 2020 (Firm)
SIPN2 Webinar - Registration Available
The Sea Ice Prediction Network – Phase 2 (SIPN2) invites registration for an open webinar entitled "Understanding Stakeholder Information Needs for Sea-Ice Forecasting." This webinar will include an overview of stakeholder groups and their information needs, examples of how stakeholder groups deal with sea-ice and relate to sea-ice information, and discussion of how information gathered through stakeholder engagement can be of use to the sea-ice forecasting community. Time for participant questions will follow the presentations. This one-hour event will be held on Tuesday, 28 April 2020, starting at 8:00 a.m. (AKDT).
2019 Sea Ice Outlook Post-Season Report
The 2019 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Post-Season Report is now available. The SIO is a community network activity led by the Sea Ice Prediction Network – Phase 2 Project Team, with contributions from key partners, to advance our understanding of the state and evolution of Arctic sea ice cover. This report includes in-depth discussions and analysis of factors impacting sea ice this past summer, the SIO contributions, regional observation, predicted spatial fields, Antarctic contributions, seasonal sea ice forecasting for the Alaska marine shipping industry, and a summary from the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx).
Call for Community Comments: Draft 2019 SIO Post-Season Report
The preliminary draft of the 2019 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Full Post-Season Report is now available for community review and comment prior to final publication in mid-February 2020. Sea Ice Prediction Network members are invited to provide comments on all sections of the draft. To provide input, please reference the line number(s) in the document that correspond to your comments. Comments may be submitted via email to Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).
Deadline for comment submission: Monday, 10 February 2020 at 6:00 pm (AKST).
For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).
SIPN2 Sea Ice Community Open Meeting
Please join the Sea Ice Prediction Network - Phase 2 (SIPN2) for a Sea Ice Community Open Meeting on Tuesday, 10 December 2019 from 12:30 to 1:30 p.m. (PST) in the ARCUS Arctic Community Meeting Room: Monterrey I — Hotel Nikko San Francisco, located at 222 Mason Street, San Francisco, CA.
All attendees are invited to participate in a fast-paced round-robin session to share information about related efforts and/or needs for input. A PowerPoint template is available, for those who want to share information in a slide format, upon request.
2019 Sea Ice Outlook Interim Post-Season Report
The 2019 Sea Ice Outlook Interim Post-Season Report is now available. The September monthly averaged sea ice extent at the end of the 2019 summer melt season was 4.32 million square kilometers. This is the third lowest in the satellite record that began in 1979.
This interim report is intended as a quick postseason update that summarizes how the outlooks did in comparison to the observed September monthly mean extent. A full post-season report, to be published in February 2020, will include an in-depth analysis of factors impacting sea ice this past summer, further discussion about the outlooks, comments on regional observation, predicted spatial fields, Antarctic contributions, and a summary from the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx).
2019 August Sea Ice Outlook Report Available
The 2019 August Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas; the Outlook is not an operational forecast.
A record number of 42 Pan-Arctic outlook contributions were received for the August report. Of those contributions 7 also included pan-Antarctic predictions, 11 included regional predictions for Alaskan waters, and 5 were for the Hudson Bay region.
For the August report the pan-Arctic median value for September 2019 sea-ice extent is 4.22 million square kilometers and with quartile values of 4.0 and 4.4 million square kilometers.Although pan-Arctic sea-ice extent was tracking very close to the record minimum of 2012 from mid-June through mid-August, the rate of melt slowed down in late August. A record minimum extent is not expected for 2019, unless late summer storm activity consolidates ice extent.
SIPN2 Webinar Registration: An Overview of European Union-Funded Project APPLICATE
The Sea Ice Prediction Network – Phase 2 (SIPN2) invites registration for an open webinar entitled "An Overview of European Union-Funded Project APPLICATE" featuring Pablo Ortega, Earth Science Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center. This webinar will provide an overview on the EU-Funded H2020 project APPLICATE, whose main goal is to advance our capability to predict the weather and climate in the Arctic and beyond. It will present a few examples on the seasonal prediction activities carried out within the project. These include an analysis on how the different forecast errors are developed in the EC-Earth system, a multi-model comparison of predictive skill in all the seasonal forecast systems participating to the Consortium, results from empirical statistical models used for benchmarking, and experiments exploring the added-value of increasing both the atmospheric and oceanic resolution on seasonal prediction. This event will be held on Tuesday, 17 September 2019 from 8:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. AKDT.
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces the call for contributions for the 2019 Sea Ice Outlook August report (based on May, June, and July data). The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas.
Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Extent Outlooks and any additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted for the 2019 August Outlook. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). For those interested, submissions for Hudson Bay are also accepted. Submissions that include spatial forecast maps are encouraged.
The 2019 SIO will also accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean. Informal sea ice observations and other parameters not included in the regular monthly reports are also invited. All participants whose methods provide information at the local scale to are encouraged to provide full spatial fields via the SIPN Data Portal.
Submission deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Wednesday, 14 August 2019 (firm).
2019 July Sea Ice Outlook Report Available
The 2019 July Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists.
For the 2019 July report, 39 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions 8 also included pan-Antarctic predictions, 10 included regional predictions for Alaskan waters, and 6 were for the Hudson Bay region.
For the pan-Arctic, the median July Outlook value for September 2019 sea-ice extent is 4.28 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.0 to 4.6 million square kilometers. As of the publication of this report, total Arctic extent was tracking below levels recorded in 2012, the year that ended up with the lowest September extent on record.
The Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas; the Outlook is not an operational forecast.
Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces the call for contributions for the 2019 Sea Ice Outlook July report (based on May and June data). The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas.
Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Extent Outlooks and any additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted for the 2019 July Outlook. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). For those interested, submissions for Hudson Bay are also accepted. Submissions that include spatial forecast maps are encouraged.
The 2019 SIO will also accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean. Informal sea ice observations and other parameters not included in the regular monthly reports are also invited. All participants whose methods provide information at the local scale to are encouraged to provide full spatial fields via the SIPN Data Portal.
Submission deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Friday, 12 July 2019 (firm).
2019 June Sea Ice Outlook Report Available
The 2019 June Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, an effort managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists.
For the 2019 June report, 31 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions, of those contributions six (6) also included pan-Antarctic predictions, and nine (9) included predictions for Alaskan waters. This year, for the first time, there are also seven (7) predictions for the Hudson Bay region.
For the pan-Arctic, the median June Outlook value for September 2019 sea-ice extent is 4.40 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.2 and 4.8 million square kilometers (The individual outlooks are based on statistical, dynamical models, and heuristic methods. Projected extents are slightly lower compared with 2018 June outlook, but is about the same as in the 2017 June outlook (4.43 million square kilometers). he Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas; the Outlook is not an operational forecast.