Sea Ice Prediction Network News

The 2022 September Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team, provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2022 September SIO Report, 22 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, seven included predictions for the Alaska region, seven included predictions for pan-Antarctic, and 10 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions of the contributed forecasts for the pan-Arctic, Alaska region, and pan-Antarctic; Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies; predictions from spatial fields; and current conditions.

The median September Outlook value for September 2022 pan-Arctic sea-ice extent is 4.90 million square kilometers, which is higher than that from August (4.83 million square kilometers), July (4.64 million square kilometers), and June (4.57 million square kilometers).

For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).

The 2022 August Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team, provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2022 August report, 28 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, eight included predictions for the Alaska region, nine included predictions for pan-Antarctic, and 12 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions of the contributed forecasts for the pan-Arctic, Alaska region, and pan-Antarctic; Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies; predictions from spatial fields; and current condition.

The median August Outlook value for September 2022 pan-Arctic sea-ice extent is 4.83 million square kilometers, which is higher than that from July (4.64 million square kilometers) and June (4.57 million square kilometers).

For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).

The 2022 July Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team, provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2022 July report, 30 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, eight included predictions for the Alaska region, nine included predictions for pan-Antarctic, and 12 submitted September mean sea-ice extent anomalies. This report includes discussions of the contributed forecasts for the pan-Arctic, Alaska region, and pan-Antarctic; Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies; predictions from spatial fields; and current condition.

The median July Outlook value for September 2022 pan-Arctic sea-ice extent is 4.64 million square kilometers, which is slightly higher than the median cited in the June report of 4.57 million square kilometers.

For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).

The 2022 June Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

For the 2022 June report, 37 contributions were received that included pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, ten included predictions for the Alaska region and nine included predictions for pan-Antarctic. For the pan-Arctic, the median June Outlook value for September 2022 sea-ice extent is 4.57 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.34 and 4.90 million square kilometers. This is higher than the SIO forecasted value of September sea-ice extent for the past three years (2019-2021), but slightly below the median value of 4.60 million square kilometers cited by 2018 SIO June report.

For questions, contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).

The 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Post-Season Report is now available online. The SIO is a community network activity led by the Sea Ice Prediction Network-Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team with contributions from key partners. This report includes a review of the 2021 SIO contributions and sea-ice extent anomalies, discussions and analysis of observed Arctic conditions during the sea-ice retreat season, a review of Antarctic conditions and contributions, discussions of SIO forecast methods and skill relative to control forecasts, information about new data products for sea-ice forecasting, and a summary from the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx).

During the 2021 American Geophysical Union Fall Meetings in New Orleans, Louisiana; Uma Bhatt, SIPN2 Lead Project Principal Investigator, presented a talk entitled "A Community of Practice Approach to Improving and Communicating Seasonal Sea-Ice Forecasts." Her presentation was developed with input from, and on behalf of, the SIPN2 Project Team. A PDF of her five-minute presentation slides is available here.

A Community of Practice Approach to Improving and Communicating Seasonal Sea-Ice Forecasts (PDF - 5MB)

The 2021 September Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available online. The Sea Ice Outlook, managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2), provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. The Outlook is not an operational forecast.

This September Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report—a new addition to the SIO season—was created in response to suggestions made during the 2021 January SIO Contributors Forum to solicit forecasts initialized in late August or early September for September mean Arctic sea-ice extent. The September SIO report provides a brief summary of the forecasts. The more comprehensive, full post-season report will be published in spring 2022.

For the pan-Arctic, the median September Outlook is 4.39 million square kilometers, equal to the August median and higher than the median of the June and July forecasts for 2021.

The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team announces the Call for Contributions to the 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) August Report (based on May, June, and July data). The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea-ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Post-Season reports focus on performance of the Outlooks, analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent, and scientific methods for predicting seasonal conditions.

Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Friday, 13 August 2021 (firm).

The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) Project Team announces the Call for Contributions to the 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) July Report (based on May and June data). The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Post-Season reports focus on performance of the Outlooks, analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent, and scientific methods for predicting seasonal conditions.

Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Monday, 12 July 2021 (firm).