2012 Guidelines for Contributors

The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook organizers are now soliciting pan-arctic and regional outlooks for the 2012 season. We encourage past and new contributors to participate.

The 2012 Outlook season will be a transition year to an expanded Outlook in 2013; this year, we would like to focus on expanding discussion of ice thickness, expanding discussion of the relative performance of different Outlook techniques, and improving access to relevant outlook data (see "Data Resources" webpage at: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/data.php). So in addition to the pan-arctic and regional outlook contributions, we invite any information or input to those topics as well.

ALL Outlook submissions should be sent directly to Helen Wiggins, ARCUS, at: helen [at] arcus.org, with the following subject lines, as relevant:

PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]

REGIONAL OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]

OUTLOOK FOR BOTH REGIONAL AND PAN-ARCTIC - [YOUR LAST NAME]

An MS Word document is preferred for ease of formatting to PDF files and extracting images for the website - we will not edit your individual submission and will not post your Word documents.

SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK

Pan-arctic Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Extent Projection
    Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea ice extent (in million square kilometers).

  2. Methods/Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model ensemble runs, etc.).

  3. Rationale
    Include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.

  4. Executive Summary
    Provide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in two or three sentences.

  5. Estimate of Forecast Skill (if available)
    If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill, uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction. This year, we will add error estimates to the summary bar chart of outlook estimates, as appropriate.

We would also like to expand discussion of ice thickness in the monthly reports, so please include any relevant information on ice thickness (or age), if available.

All Outlooks should be sent to:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org

SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Regional Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Region of Interest
    While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please specify which of the following the outlook applies to:

    Arctic Regions:

    • Beaufort-Chukchi Seas
    • East Siberian-Laptev Seas
    • Kara-Barents-Greenland Seas
    • Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait
    • Hudson Bay
    • Sea of Okhotsk
    • Bering Sea

    Shipping Routes:

    • Northwest Passage
    • Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)
    • Arctic Bridge (Murmansk-Churchill)
  2. Sea Ice Parameter
    Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phonological stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates, length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset, earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up) than those of summer 2011.

  3. Outline of Methods/Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model, traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the estimate.

  4. Estimate of Forecast Skill
    If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill, uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction.

  5. Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional)
    What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your prediction?

All Outlooks should be sent to:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org

TENTATIVE 2012 SEA ICE OUTLOOK SCHEDULE

JUNE REPORT (using May data). Deadline for contributions:
4 June. Publish reports online: 11 June.

JULY REPORT (using June data). Deadline for contributions: 5 July.
Publish reports online: 11 July.

AUGUST REPORT (using July data). Deadline for contributions: 6 August.
Publish reports online: 11 August.

SEPTEMBER REPORT (brief updates based on August data). Deadline for contributions: 4 September. Publish updates online: 10 September.

MINIMUM ANNOUNCEMENT. Based on the National Snow and Ice Data Center's
(NSIDC) announcement for minimum.

POST-SEASON SYNOPSIS (exact dates dependent on when minimum is reached).
Deadline for contributions: early October. Publish post-season synopsis: late October.