What Are Future Scenarios?
Future scenarios are narratives that represent combined sets of assumptions about possible futures in a system. They are intended to give decision-makers a framework of data for strategy planning. Unlike forecasts, scenarios are never intended to draw a single picture of the future. Scenarios describe the entire realm within which the future may unfold, thereby allowing preparation for different outcomes or eventualities.
The work of SEARCH Action Teams is well-suited for futures thinking in Arctic research and policy development. While investigating key features of the Northern cryosphere, SEARCH teams also explore the potential effects of future climatic changes on sea ice, near-surface permafrost, land-ice loss, and the social systems tied to these geophysical changes.
Arctic Future Scenarios Working Group
The Arctic Future Scenarios Working Group’s charge is to outline SEARCH’s plan of action for the next 2-3 years that results in the production of interdisciplinary, synthetic scenarios of the Arctic’s future.
Working Group Members:
- Amy Lovecraft, University of Alaska Fairbanks (Chair)
- Brendan Kelly, University of Alaska Fairbanks (SEARCH Executive Director)
- Matthew Druckenmiller, Rutgers University (SEARCH Sea Ice Action Team)
- Robert Bindschadler, NASA Emeritus Scientist (SEARCH SSC & Land Ice Action Team)
- Christina Schädel, Northern Arizona University (SEARCH Permafrost Action Team)
- Ted Schuur, Northern Arizona Universit (SEARCH Permafrost Action Team)