Meeting
2016 SIPN Workshop
Presentation Type
plenary
Presentation Theme
Predictability
Abstract Authors

David Schroeder, CPOM, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, D.Schroeder [at] reading.ac.uk

Abstract

Stand-alone sea ice simulations with a physical based melt pond model reveal a strong correlation between the simulated spring pond fraction and the observed as well as simulated September sea ice extent for the period 1979 to 2015. This is explained by a positive feedback mechanism: more ponds reduce the albedo; a lower albedo causes more melting; more melting increases pond fraction. We implemented the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE 5 including our physical based melt pond model into the latest version of the Hadley Centre coupled climate model, HadGEM3. The model surface shortwave radiation scheme has been adjusted to account for pond fraction and depth. We performed three 55-year HadGEM3 simulations with constant external forcing for the years 1985, 2010 and 2035. In all three simulations we find a strong correlation between the April/May pond fraction and the September sea ice conditions. We demonstrate that spring melt ponds are an important driver for summer ice melt and enable us to make skilful predictions for the consequent September sea ice in most Arctic regions for current and future climate conditions.

Time
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