Sea Ice Prediction Network

Networking scientists and stakeholders to improve sea ice prediction in a changing Arctic

Sea Ice Prediction Network News

Call for Informal and Early Season Contributions to 2015 SIO

Call for Informal and Early Season Contributions to 2015 SIO
14 May 2015

The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) announces a call for informal and early season contributions to the 2015 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). This call offers a forum for sharing information on sea ice parameters other than extent and/or for other time periods than are included in the regular monthly reports. It is in addition to the calls for contributions to the regular SIO monthly reports in June, July, and August.

Webinar Archive Available

Sun bounces off of the sea ice on a clear sunny day in the Arctic. Aboard the USCGC Polar Sea icebreaker in the Beaufort Sea.
6 May 2015

The archive is now available for the 5 May 2015 Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) webinar "Observations of Arctic Snow and Sea Ice Thickness from Satellite and Airborne Surveys" presented by Nathan Kurtz, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The archive includes a video of the webinar, the presentation slides, and a list of webinar participants.

Sea Ice Prediction Network Webinar Scheduled

Sun bounces off of the sea ice on a clear sunny day in the Arctic. Aboard the USCGC Polar Sea icebreaker in the Beaufort Sea.
15 April 2015

The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) will host an open webinar entitled "Observations of Arctic Snow and Sea Ice Thickness from Satellite and Airborne Surveys." The presentation, given by Nathan Kurtz of NASA's Cryospheric Sciences Lab at Goddard, will focus on the current state and availability of snow and sea ice thickness data from NASA's Operation IceBridge airborne surveys and the European Space Agency's CryoSat-2 satellite mission. The accuracy and limitations of these operational data sets will also be discussed to place the utility of the data in context for use in a variety of study areas.

This one-hour webinar is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. AKDT (11:00 a.m. PDT, 12:00 p.m. MDT, 1:00 p.m. CDT, and 2:00 EDT) on Tuesday, 5 May 2015.

More information about the webinar is available here.

Sea Ice Concentration Fields for Operational Ice Forecasting

6 April 2015

NSIDC announces availability of the MASIE-AMSR2 (MASAM2) daily 4 km sea ice concentration, which is a prototype concentration product offering greater accuracy and higher resolution in ice concentration fields used to initialize an operational sea ice forecast model. MASAM2 is a blend of two other daily sea ice data products: ice coverage from the Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (MASIE) product, at a 4 km grid cell size, and ice concentrations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) at a 10 km grid cell size. This prototype MASAM2 product currently covers July 2012 through mid-November 2014, but it will become a daily product if there is demand for such a product.

SIPN Leadership Team Member Provides Testimony to U.S. Senate Committee

20 March 2015

On Thursday, 5 March 2015 Cecilia Bitz provided the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee with testimony about Arctic research opportunities. Her comments featured the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) as an example of exciting new work that could deliver even more relevant information to policy makers with further investments. Her comments are recorded from 1:26 to 1:31 in the archived video.

Webinar Archive Available

6 March 2015

The archive is now available for the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) webinar on "Sea Ice Modeling: Characteristics and Processes Critical for the Radiation Budget," presented by Elizabeth Hunke, Los Alamos National Laboratory. The archive includes video of the webinar, the presentation slides, and a list of webinar participants.

Webinar Reminder

3 March 2015

Reminder: Webinar today, Tuesday, 3 March 2015, from 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. AKST. on "Sea Ice Modeling: Characteristics and Processes Critical for the Radiation Budget." The speaker is Elizabeth Hunke, Los Alamos National Laboratory. This webinar is designed for the sea ice research community and others interested in learning about sea ice modeling from the global climate model perspective.

Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) Webinar

Sun bounces off of the sea ice on a clear sunny day in the Arctic. Aboard the USCGC Polar Sea icebreaker in the Beaufort Sea.
19 February 2015

Registration is now available for a SIPN webinar entitled "Sea Ice Modeling: Characteristics and Processes Critical for the Radiation Budget." The speaker is Elizabeth Hunke, Los Alamos National Laboratory. This webinar is designed for the sea ice research community and others interested in learning about sea ice modeling from the global climate model perspective. It is scheduled for Tuesday, 3 March 2015 from 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. AKST. For more information, contact Betsy Turner-Bogren at ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus [dot] org).

PCPI Sea Ice Prediction Workshop

Photo by Ute Kaden (TREC 2005), Courtesy of ARCUS
10 February 2015

The Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI) announces a call for abstracts and registration for the Sea Ice Prediction Workshop 2015. This workshop will discuss polar climate variability and predictability on seasonal to decadal timescales. Presentations on understanding the causes of of inter-annual polar climate variability, as well as idealised predictability studies, and operational forecasts are welcome. The workshop will convene 8-10 April 2015 at the University of Reading, United Kingdom. For more information contact Ed Hawkins (e [dot] hawkins [at] reading [dot] ac [dot] uk).

Sea Ice Outlook Post-Season Report

Box plots show the median, interquartile range, highest, and lowest values of sea ice outlook contributions from June, July, and August, broken down by type of method used.
19 December 2014

The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) announces the 2014 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Post-Season Report! The SIO provides an open forum for researchers and others to share and discuss predictions of Arctic sea ice through monthly reports in the summer and a post-season analysis. The post-season report includes analysis of the relative skill of various Arctic sea ice prediction models and methods and an expanded focus this year on the spatial pattern, probability, and ice-free dates for specific regions.

SIPN Modeling Meeting

 Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook values (August Report) for September 2014 sea ice extent compared to the observed value. Labels on the bar graph are rounded to the tenths for readability.
4 December 2014

There will be a Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) Modeling Meeting on Wednesday, 17 December from 12:30-2:00 pm during the American Geophysical Union (AGU) fall meetings. This year's meeting will focus on issues related to predicting sea ice with methods that are sensitive to initial conditions. Specifically, the goal of this meeting is to set up a common protocol for experiments to test sensitivity to initial conditions in sea ice forecasts of summer 2015. We will also discuss metrics that are responsive to stakeholder needs. The meeting is open, and all SIPN and Sea Ice Outlook participants who use initial conditions in a model are invited. The meeting will convene in the Foothill E room on the 2nd floor of the San Francisco Marriott Marquis.

Lunch will be provided to folks who RSVP by 10:00 am (AKST) Monday, 8 December. For more information or to RSVP, contact Betsy (betsy [at] arcus [dot] org).

Request for Input

This image compares differences in ice-covered areas between September 17, 2014, the date of this year’s minimum, and last year’s minimum, September 13, 2013.
25 November 2014

Request for Input: Draft Post-Season Report. The 2014 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Action Team invites community comment on its draft post-season report. This draft includes the main post-season analysis and discussion points. Following input, further development, and editing the SIO Action Team aims to share a final draft with the larger community during the 2014 American Geophysical Union Fall Meetings 14-19 December. Comments from the Arctic sea ice community on the analysis and discussion sections as well as suggestions on how to help improve sea-ice forecasts are welcome. Please send comments to Betsy Turner-Bogren (betsy [at] arcus [dot] org) by Wednesday, 3 December 2014. The report is online and available to be downloaded as a PDF or Microsoft Word document here.

Sea Ice Presentations at AGU

Sea Ice Presentations at AGU
16 November 2014

Going to the AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco next month? Overwhelmed by the science program and not sure what presentations to see? We’ve got an online schedule of sea ice-related talks and posters to help!

SIPN Webinar Archive

Sun bounces off of the sea ice on a clear sunny day in the Arctic. Aboard the USCGC Polar Sea icebreaker in the Beaufort Sea.
20 October 2014

An archive of the Sea Ice Outlook: Post-Season Discussion webinar, held on 9 October 2014, is now available. The webinar, hosted by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), focused on post-season analysis and discussion of the 2014 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) and provided a venue for discussion of the 2014 SIO, including processes that influenced sea ice melt this year and a review of the differing approaches to predicting the sea ice minimum extent.

SIPN Webinar

Sun bounces off of the sea ice on a clear sunny day in the Arctic. Aboard the USCGC Polar Sea icebreaker in the Beaufort Sea.
2 October 2014

Registration is now available for the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) webinar, which will focus on post-season analysis and discussion of the 2014 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). This webinar will provide a venue for discussion of the 2014 SIO, including processes that influenced sea ice melt this year and a review of the differing approaches to predicting the sea ice minimum extent. The webinar is open to all interested participants, including sea ice researchers, students, decision-makers, and others. This webinar is scheduled for Thursday, 9 October 2014 from 11:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. AKDT. Registration is required.

SIPN Webinar

Sun bounces off of the sea ice on a clear sunny day in the Arctic. Aboard the USCGC Polar Sea icebreaker in the Beaufort Sea.
24 September 2014

SAVE THE DATE: The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) announces an open webinar focused on post-season analysis and discussion of the 2014 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). This webinar will provide a venue for discussion of the 2014 SIO, including processes that influenced sea ice melt this year and a review of the differing approaches to predicting the sea ice minimum extent. The webinar is open to all interested participants, including sea ice researchers, students, decision-makers, and others. This webinar is scheduled for Thursday, 9 October 2014 from 11:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. AKDT.

August Sea Ice Outlook

Figure 1: Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook values (August Report) for September 2014 sea ice extent. Labels on the bar graph are rounded to the tenths for readability. Refer to the Individual Outlooks at the bottom of this report for the full details of individual submissions.
25 August 2014

Announcing the August Sea Ice Outlook report! We received 23 pan-Arctic contributions and four regional contributions. The median Outlook value for September 2014 sea ice extent is 5.0 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.58 and 5.22 million square kilometers. This month's report includes comments on modeling outlooks and on regional predictions, a summary of current conditions, key statements from each Outlook, and links to view or download the full outlook contributions.

Sea Ice Outlook

Sample of SIP (i.e., ensemble mean SIE) in percent for a random year from CESM1.1.
5 August 2014

The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) announces a call for contributions to the August Sea Ice Outlook report. Please see the guidelines for submitting regional and pan-Arctic outlooks. A variety of perspectives, from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists, are welcome.

July Sea Ice Outlook

23 July 2014

Announcing the July Sea Ice Outlook report! We received 28 pan-Arctic contributions and three regional contributions. The median Outlook value for September 2014 sea ice extent is 4.8 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.4 and 5.0 million square kilometers. The report includes a brief executive summary, comments on modeling outlooks and on regional predictions, current conditions, and the individual Outlook contributions.

AGU Session

Photo by Ute Kaden (TREC 2005), Courtesy of ARCUS
14 July 2014

SIPN Team member Cecilia Bitz announces a call for abstracts for an AGU Session: Processes and Predictability (Session #2392). Presentations that examine the processes that govern seasonal to multidecadal polar climate variability, identify sources of polar climate predictability, and characterize uncertainty in polar climate prediction are welcome. The session seeks to connect the community of atmospheric, oceanic, and cryospheric scientists working on topics relevant to the new Polar Climate Predictability Initiative of the World Climate Research Program. It will convene during the AGU Fall Meetings in San Francisco 15-19 December 2014.