Sea Ice Prediction Network News
The Sea Ice Prediction Network announces a call for Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) contributions to the July report—based on May and June data. The Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas about the monthly September minimum sea ice extent. Join a growing network of sea ice experts and contribute a pan-Arctic, regional, or informal Outlook.
The 2015 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) - June Report received great media coverage by the Alaska Dispatch News. In an article, posted on 25 June, reporter Yareth Rosen provides a summary of the SIO goals and process, range of methods contributors used, links to Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) and associated agencies, and the June median outlook for sea ice extent in September -- converted to square miles (1.93 million square miles).
We received a record 32 contributions using a range of methods including statistical, numerical models, trend-based estimates, and subjective information. The median Outlook value for September 2015 sea ice extent is 5.0 million square kilometers, and predictions fall in a range of 3.3 to 5.7 km2 (with the exception of one 0.98 km2 outlying estimate). This month’s report also includes a discussion about the 11 dynamical model contributions as well as sections on regional predictions and the current conditions of the sea ice.
The SIPN 2014 Sea Ice Action Team members Julienne Stroeve, Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Virginie Guemas, Stephen Howell, François Massonnet, and Steffen Tietsche published a discussion of the 2014 Sea Ice Outlook and forecasting skill of models that predict the extent and other characteristics of Arctic sea ice cover. Their article "Improving Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent" is published in EOS.
The Sea Ice Prediction Network announces the launch of the 2015 Sea Ice Outlook season with the first call for contributions for the June report! The Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share predictions and ideas about the monthly September minimum sea ice extent. Join a growing network of sea ice experts and contribute a pan-Arctic, regional, or informal Outlook.
Announcing the recent release of new IceBridge and CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness data sets for the 2015 spring season.
The NASA IceBridge Sea Ice Freeboard, Snow Depth, and Thickness Quick Look data set is an evaluation product containing derived geophysical data products retrieved over the Arctic sea ice cover.
The NASA CryoSat-2 Sea Ice Freeboard, Thickness, and Snow Depth Quick Look product is an experimental sea ice thickness data set containing derived geophysical data products retrieved over the Arctic sea ice cover.
The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) announces a call for informal and early season contributions to the 2015 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). This call offers a forum for sharing information on sea ice parameters other than extent and/or for other time periods than are included in the regular monthly reports. It is in addition to the calls for contributions to the regular SIO monthly reports in June, July, and August.
The archive is now available for the 5 May 2015 Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) webinar "Observations of Arctic Snow and Sea Ice Thickness from Satellite and Airborne Surveys" presented by Nathan Kurtz, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The archive includes a video of the webinar, the presentation slides, and a list of webinar participants.
The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) will host an open webinar entitled "Observations of Arctic Snow and Sea Ice Thickness from Satellite and Airborne Surveys." The presentation, given by Nathan Kurtz of NASA's Cryospheric Sciences Lab at Goddard, will focus on the current state and availability of snow and sea ice thickness data from NASA's Operation IceBridge airborne surveys and the European Space Agency's CryoSat-2 satellite mission. The accuracy and limitations of these operational data sets will also be discussed to place the utility of the data in context for use in a variety of study areas.
This one-hour webinar is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. AKDT (11:00 a.m. PDT, 12:00 p.m. MDT, 1:00 p.m. CDT, and 2:00 EDT) on Tuesday, 5 May 2015.
More information about the webinar is available here.
NSIDC announces availability of the MASIE-AMSR2 (MASAM2) daily 4 km sea ice concentration, which is a prototype concentration product offering greater accuracy and higher resolution in ice concentration fields used to initialize an operational sea ice forecast model. MASAM2 is a blend of two other daily sea ice data products: ice coverage from the Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (MASIE) product, at a 4 km grid cell size, and ice concentrations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) at a 10 km grid cell size. This prototype MASAM2 product currently covers July 2012 through mid-November 2014, but it will become a daily product if there is demand for such a product.
On Thursday, 5 March 2015 Cecilia Bitz provided the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee with testimony about Arctic research opportunities. Her comments featured the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) as an example of exciting new work that could deliver even more relevant information to policy makers with further investments. Her comments are recorded from 1:26 to 1:31 in the archived video.
The archive is now available for the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) webinar on "Sea Ice Modeling: Characteristics and Processes Critical for the Radiation Budget," presented by Elizabeth Hunke, Los Alamos National Laboratory. The archive includes video of the webinar, the presentation slides, and a list of webinar participants.
Reminder: Webinar today, Tuesday, 3 March 2015, from 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. AKST. on "Sea Ice Modeling: Characteristics and Processes Critical for the Radiation Budget." The speaker is Elizabeth Hunke, Los Alamos National Laboratory. This webinar is designed for the sea ice research community and others interested in learning about sea ice modeling from the global climate model perspective.
Registration is now available for a SIPN webinar entitled "Sea Ice Modeling: Characteristics and Processes Critical for the Radiation Budget." The speaker is Elizabeth Hunke, Los Alamos National Laboratory. This webinar is designed for the sea ice research community and others interested in learning about sea ice modeling from the global climate model perspective. It is scheduled for Tuesday, 3 March 2015 from 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. AKST. For more information, contact Betsy Turner-Bogren at ARCUS (betsy [at] arcus.org).
The Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI) announces a call for abstracts and registration for the Sea Ice Prediction Workshop 2015. This workshop will discuss polar climate variability and predictability on seasonal to decadal timescales. Presentations on understanding the causes of of inter-annual polar climate variability, as well as idealised predictability studies, and operational forecasts are welcome. The workshop will convene 8-10 April 2015 at the University of Reading, United Kingdom. For more information contact Ed Hawkins (e.hawkins [at] reading.ac.uk).
The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) announces the 2014 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Post-Season Report! The SIO provides an open forum for researchers and others to share and discuss predictions of Arctic sea ice through monthly reports in the summer and a post-season analysis. The post-season report includes analysis of the relative skill of various Arctic sea ice prediction models and methods and an expanded focus this year on the spatial pattern, probability, and ice-free dates for specific regions.
There will be a Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) Modeling Meeting on Wednesday, 17 December from 12:30-2:00 pm during the American Geophysical Union (AGU) fall meetings. This year's meeting will focus on issues related to predicting sea ice with methods that are sensitive to initial conditions. Specifically, the goal of this meeting is to set up a common protocol for experiments to test sensitivity to initial conditions in sea ice forecasts of summer 2015. We will also discuss metrics that are responsive to stakeholder needs. The meeting is open, and all SIPN and Sea Ice Outlook participants who use initial conditions in a model are invited. The meeting will convene in the Foothill E room on the 2nd floor of the San Francisco Marriott Marquis.
Lunch will be provided to folks who RSVP by 10:00 am (AKST) Monday, 8 December. For more information or to RSVP, contact Betsy (betsy [at] arcus.org).
Request for Input: Draft Post-Season Report. The 2014 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Action Team invites community comment on its draft post-season report. This draft includes the main post-season analysis and discussion points. Following input, further development, and editing the SIO Action Team aims to share a final draft with the larger community during the 2014 American Geophysical Union Fall Meetings 14-19 December. Comments from the Arctic sea ice community on the analysis and discussion sections as well as suggestions on how to help improve sea-ice forecasts are welcome. Please send comments to Betsy Turner-Bogren (betsy [at] arcus.org) by Wednesday, 3 December 2014. The report is online and available to be downloaded as a PDF or Microsoft Word document here.
Going to the AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco next month? Overwhelmed by the science program and not sure what presentations to see? We’ve got an online schedule of sea ice-related talks and posters to help!
An archive of the Sea Ice Outlook: Post-Season Discussion webinar, held on 9 October 2014, is now available. The webinar, hosted by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), focused on post-season analysis and discussion of the 2014 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) and provided a venue for discussion of the 2014 SIO, including processes that influenced sea ice melt this year and a review of the differing approaches to predicting the sea ice minimum extent.