Sea Ice Prediction Network

Networking scientists and stakeholders to improve sea ice prediction in a changing Arctic

Sea Ice Prediction Network News

SIPN Modeling Meeting

 Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook values (August Report) for September 2014 sea ice extent compared to the observed value. Labels on the bar graph are rounded to the tenths for readability.
4 December 2014

There will be a Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) Modeling Meeting on Wednesday, 17 December from 12:30-2:00 pm during the American Geophysical Union (AGU) fall meetings. This year's meeting will focus on issues related to predicting sea ice with methods that are sensitive to initial conditions. Specifically, the goal of this meeting is to set up a common protocol for experiments to test sensitivity to initial conditions in sea ice forecasts of summer 2015. We will also discuss metrics that are responsive to stakeholder needs. The meeting is open, and all SIPN and Sea Ice Outlook participants who use initial conditions in a model are invited. The meeting will convene in the Foothill E room on the 2nd floor of the San Francisco Marriott Marquis.

Lunch will be provided to folks who RSVP by 10:00 am (AKST) Monday, 8 December. For more information or to RSVP, contact Betsy (betsy [at] arcus [dot] org).

Request for Input

This image compares differences in ice-covered areas between September 17, 2014, the date of this year’s minimum, and last year’s minimum, September 13, 2013.
25 November 2014

Request for Input: Draft Post-Season Report. The 2014 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Action Team invites community comment on its draft post-season report. This draft includes the main post-season analysis and discussion points. Following input, further development, and editing the SIO Action Team aims to share a final draft with the larger community during the 2014 American Geophysical Union Fall Meetings 14-19 December. Comments from the Arctic sea ice community on the analysis and discussion sections as well as suggestions on how to help improve sea-ice forecasts are welcome. Please send comments to Betsy Turner-Bogren (betsy [at] arcus [dot] org) by Wednesday, 3 December 2014. The report is online and available to be downloaded as a PDF or Microsoft Word document here.

Sea Ice Presentations at AGU

Sea Ice Presentations at AGU
16 November 2014

Going to the AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco next month? Overwhelmed by the science program and not sure what presentations to see? We’ve got an online schedule of sea ice-related talks and posters to help!

SIPN Webinar Archive

Sun bounces off of the sea ice on a clear sunny day in the Arctic. Aboard the USCGC Polar Sea icebreaker in the Beaufort Sea.
20 October 2014

An archive of the Sea Ice Outlook: Post-Season Discussion webinar, held on 9 October 2014, is now available. The webinar, hosted by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), focused on post-season analysis and discussion of the 2014 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) and provided a venue for discussion of the 2014 SIO, including processes that influenced sea ice melt this year and a review of the differing approaches to predicting the sea ice minimum extent.

SIPN Webinar

Sun bounces off of the sea ice on a clear sunny day in the Arctic. Aboard the USCGC Polar Sea icebreaker in the Beaufort Sea.
2 October 2014

Registration is now available for the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) webinar, which will focus on post-season analysis and discussion of the 2014 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). This webinar will provide a venue for discussion of the 2014 SIO, including processes that influenced sea ice melt this year and a review of the differing approaches to predicting the sea ice minimum extent. The webinar is open to all interested participants, including sea ice researchers, students, decision-makers, and others. This webinar is scheduled for Thursday, 9 October 2014 from 11:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. AKDT. Registration is required.

SIPN Webinar

Sun bounces off of the sea ice on a clear sunny day in the Arctic. Aboard the USCGC Polar Sea icebreaker in the Beaufort Sea.
24 September 2014

SAVE THE DATE: The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) announces an open webinar focused on post-season analysis and discussion of the 2014 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). This webinar will provide a venue for discussion of the 2014 SIO, including processes that influenced sea ice melt this year and a review of the differing approaches to predicting the sea ice minimum extent. The webinar is open to all interested participants, including sea ice researchers, students, decision-makers, and others. This webinar is scheduled for Thursday, 9 October 2014 from 11:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. AKDT.

August Sea Ice Outlook

Figure 1: Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook values (August Report) for September 2014 sea ice extent. Labels on the bar graph are rounded to the tenths for readability. Refer to the Individual Outlooks at the bottom of this report for the full details of individual submissions.
25 August 2014

Announcing the August Sea Ice Outlook report! We received 23 pan-Arctic contributions and four regional contributions. The median Outlook value for September 2014 sea ice extent is 5.0 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.58 and 5.22 million square kilometers. This month's report includes comments on modeling outlooks and on regional predictions, a summary of current conditions, key statements from each Outlook, and links to view or download the full outlook contributions.

Sea Ice Outlook

Sample of SIP (i.e., ensemble mean SIE) in percent for a random year from CESM1.1.
5 August 2014

The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) announces a call for contributions to the August Sea Ice Outlook report. Please see the guidelines for submitting regional and pan-Arctic outlooks. A variety of perspectives, from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists, are welcome.

July Sea Ice Outlook

23 July 2014

Announcing the July Sea Ice Outlook report! We received 28 pan-Arctic contributions and three regional contributions. The median Outlook value for September 2014 sea ice extent is 4.8 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.4 and 5.0 million square kilometers. The report includes a brief executive summary, comments on modeling outlooks and on regional predictions, current conditions, and the individual Outlook contributions.

AGU Session

Photo by Ute Kaden (TREC 2005), Courtesy of ARCUS
14 July 2014

SIPN Team member Cecilia Bitz announces a call for abstracts for an AGU Session: Processes and Predictability (Session #2392). Presentations that examine the processes that govern seasonal to multidecadal polar climate variability, identify sources of polar climate predictability, and characterize uncertainty in polar climate prediction are welcome. The session seeks to connect the community of atmospheric, oceanic, and cryospheric scientists working on topics relevant to the new Polar Climate Predictability Initiative of the World Climate Research Program. It will convene during the AGU Fall Meetings in San Francisco 15-19 December 2014.

Sea Ice Outlook

Sample of SIP (i.e., ensemble mean SIE) in percent for a random year from CESM1.1.
1 July 2014

The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) announces a call for contributions to the July Sea Ice Outlook report. Please see the new guidelines for submitting pan-Arctic and regional outlooks. A variety of perspectives, from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists, are welcome.

Sea Ice Outlook

Figure 1. Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook values (June Report) for September 2014 sea ice extent (values are rounded to the tenths).
19 June 2014

The first arctic Sea Ice Outlook report of the year has been published, and we had a record number of pan-arctic contributions! The median Outlook value for September 2014 sea ice extent is 4.7 million square kilometers. Only three outlooks this are above the 2013 observed September extent. This full report includes a brief summary, comments on modeling outlook, current conditions, key statements from all the Outlook contributions, and links to download the outlook contributions.

SIPN Team Members in the News

Sun bounces off of the sea ice on a clear sunny day in the Arctic. Aboard the USCGC Polar Sea icebreaker in the Beaufort Sea.
17 June 2014

SIPN Team members Stroeve, Hamiliton, Bitz, and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth published an analysis of the ensemble skill of the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008-2013 in predicting September Arctic sea ice extent. Their article is published in Geophysical Research Letters - 16 April 2014.

New Article on Sea Ice Predictions

Median and interquartile range of July SIO predictions, compared with observed September mean sea ice extent. Image courtesy of Stroeve et al. (2014)
16 June 2014

A new article by Larry Hamilton and others on the SIPN Team looks at the overall success of informal sea ice predictions contributed to the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). Their article was published in Witness the Arctic - Spring 2014.

New Data Available

Sea Ice
6 June 2014

A new sea ice thickness and snow depth product of the Arctic Ocean and the Beaufort and Chuckshi Seas is available from NSIDC. The 2014 quicklook data product is available here. The March 2014 CryoSat-2 data product is available here. Data collected on 28 April 2014 are forthcoming.

Sea Ice Outlook

Figure 5. Distribution of 2013 Sea Ice Outlook predictions by method and month
15 May 2014

The Sea Ice Prediction Network announces the launch of the 2014 Sea Ice Outlook season with the first call for contributions! Join a growing network of sea ice experts and contribute your pan-arctic or regional Outlook for the first report to be published in June.

Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook

Photo by Maggie Prevenas - PolarTREC/ARCUS
21 April 2014

The Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO), a product of the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH) and part of SIPN, has launched the 2014 season with weekly reports that combine forecasts, remote sensing data, and local observations for the Northern Bering Sea and southern Chukchi Sea regions of Alaska.

Workshop Webcast

Photo by Bruce Elder, Courtesy of Robert Harris (PolarTREC 2007)
24 March 2014

The Sea Ice Prediction workshop next week will be webcast. Information on how to join, as well as an updated workshop agenda and participant list, can be found on the workshop webpage.

SIPN Team Member in the News

Julienne Stroeve
10 March 2014

Julienne Stroeve is lead author on a Geophysical Research Letters article, "Changes in Arctic melt season and implications for sea ice loss”. The study has received a lot of good press coverage.

April Workshop

Photo by Ute Kaden (TREC 2005), Courtesy of ARCUS
6 March 2014

A 2-day Sea Ice Prediction Network workshop in Boulder, Colorado, will provide a venue for in-depth discussion on the 2014 SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook and related sea ice prediction science.