Sea Ice Outlook | Outlook Submission

Reports: June | July | August | September | Minimum | Summary Report

The August report represented the last formal monthly Sea Ice Outlook for the 2009 season.

Click the corresponding tab below for instructions on submitting an outlook.

Submitting a Pan-Arctic Outlook

Pan-arctic outlooks should include a September sea ice minimum extent projection, methods and techniques, and the rationale for the estimate.

Please submit your outlook, with the words "OUTLOOK" in the subject line to:

1. Extent Projection

Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea ice extent (in million square kilometers). For reference, the arctic sea ice monthly mean extent for September 2008 was 4.7 million square kilometers; in September 2007, it was 4.3 million square kilometers.

2. Methods and Techniques

Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model ensemble runs, etc.).

3. Rationale

Please include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.

Submitting a Regional Outlook

Regional Outlooks will include the region of interest, an estimate of ice season evolution, an assessment of the timing of freeze-up, an outline of methods / techniques, and information on improving outlook accuracy.

Please submit your outlook, with the words "REGIONAL OUTLOOK" in the subject line to:

1. Region of Interest

While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please specify which of the five main arctic regions the outlook applies to:

  1. Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas,
  2. Northwest Passage (please specify which specific route you are referring to),
  3. Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route),
  4. Barents-Greenland Seas, or
  5. High Arctic (north of 85˚N).
2. Estimate of Ice Season Evolution

Include an estimate of the ice season evolution (including prevalent or expected ice types) from the time each individual outlook is provided (late May, June, etc.) to the time of the summer sea ice minimum in September. In your assessment, please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be lighter or heavier than those of the previous summer (2008). Ice condition assessment categories are:

  1. Light Ice Conditions - Melt onset is earlier than normal, ice retreat is more rapid than normal, and / or ice concentrations over the course of the season are below average. Ideally, the outlook would be more specific about which of these applies and also indicate whether the assessment references a specific activity, such as different types of ship traffic, subsistence hunting, etc.
  2. Medium Ice Conditions  - Neither heavy nor light ice concentrations.
  3. Heavy Ice Year - Melt onset is later than normal, ice retreat is slower than normal, and / or ice concentrations over the course of the season are above average. Ideally, the outlook would be more specific about which of these applies.
3. Assessment of the Timing of Freeze-up
  1. What is your general assessment of the timing of freeze-up?
  2. Will the onset of ice formation in the fall be earlier or later than normal?
  3. Are any anomalies anticipated in the regional pattern of freeze-up?
4. Outline of Methods / Techniques (Optional)

What is the regional outlook based on (statistical model, heuristic approach, traditional knowledge, etc.)?

5. Improving Outlook Accuracy (Optional)

What information would be needed to improve the accuracy of your Regional Outlook?