• March 2009 Sea Ice Outlook Workshop

• 10 March 2009
• National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
• Building RL-2, Room 155/153
• Boulder, Colorado
• Last updated: 3/25/09

The goals of this workshop were to:

1. Discuss the 2008 Outlook results (i.e., what happened and why), gaps in knowledge and ability to produce accurate outlooks, areas for improvement, and overall "lessons learned";
2. Discuss plans for the 2009 Outlook— main objectives, focus, methodologies of outlooks, format and content of synthesized monthly reports, and outreach activities; and
3. Make recommendations from the above discussions to be incorporated into a short workshop report, which will be circulated to the broader community for input and used as a guide for the 2009 Sea Ice Outlook.

Welcome and Introductions

Welcome, Introductions, and Goals of Workshop

• Jim Overland
• PMEL / NOAA

Welcome from NSIDC Hosts

7MB - PPT

• Mark Serreze and Walt Meier
• National Snow and Ice Data Center

Background on Sea Ice Methodology

Sea Ice Variability and Atmospheric Forcing Patterns

1MB - PPT

• Clara Deser
• The National Center for Atmospheric Research

Issues with Sea Ice Concentration Estimates

7MB - PPT

• Walt Meier
• National Snow and Ice Data Center

Sea Ice Thickness

Powerpoint not available.

• Ron Kwok
• Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Ice Age Patterns From Remotely-Sensed Motion Tracking, and Relationships to Ice Thickness

9MB - PPT

• Jim Maslanik
• University of Colorado

Preconditioning of Arctic Sea Ice

22MB - PPT

• Ignatius Rigor
• University of Washington

Alfred Wegener Institute / OASys's SIO Contribution 2008: Setup / Initialization of the Ensemble Approach, Analysis of the Results, Plans for 2009

12MB - PPT

• Frank Kauker
• Ocean Atmosphere Systems

Method Based on Survivability Rates of Various Ice Age Classes Through the Summer

4MB - PPT

• Julienne Stroeve
• Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

National Ice Center (NIC) Seasonal Ice Outlook

8MB - PPT

• Todd Arbetter
• National Ice Center

A Simple Model for Arctic Sea Ice: Variability and Trends in the September Minimum Ice Extent

6MB - PPT

• Kyle Armour
• University of Washington

Transitioning Research Products into Operational Information

Powerpoint not available.

• Janet Intrieri
• Earth System Research Laboratory
• NOAA

Sea Ice Outlook Planning

Scientific Goals and Content

40K - PPT

• Hajo Eicken, Facilitator
• University of Alaska Fairbanks
• What is the purpose of the Outlook: Scientific exchange of ideas? Development toward a seasonal forecast product? Provide timely opinion information to the broader interested public community?
• Summary of potential methods
• What products or input would help participants in SIO improve their contributions? Solicitation and ingestion of ad-hoc information provided by field campaigns with relevant observations?
• Discussion of uncertainty and predictive skill in the context of the SIO
• Discussion of conditions in specific Arctic sub-regions: Should we extend what was done last year or are regional perspectives on outlook not warranted due to significant uncertainties associated with large-scale outlook?

SIO Format and Presentation

1MB - PPT

• Hajo Eicken, Helen Wiggins (via phone) - Facilitator
• Review format of last year's effort and suggest improvements
• Multi-tiered web content for multiple types of outreach (very detailed for scientists, short and easy-to-read summaries for the public, K-12 resources, etc)
• Media relations

Summary

• Identification of consensus and areas of uncertainty or disagreement
• Key recommendations for the SIO workshop report

• Jim Overland
• NOAA

Adjourn

Reception at Local Restaurant (Carelli's, 645 30th St.)