Synthesis of Modes of Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere Covariability in the Arctic System from Multivariate Century-Scale Observations

The project is an integrated statistical analysis of a comprehensive set of long time series from the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic. These multivariate records include meteorological and oceanographic measurements, sea ice observations and climate indices. The project data set will comprise: a subset of the multidecadal to century-scale 'Unaami' Data Collection, and a set of relatively unknown, century-scale time series from the subpolar North Atlantic (Nordic Seas, Greenland, Iceland, Faroe Islands and Norway) and Arctic that is new to the US community. These data will be organized and analyzed using a comprehensive set of advanced time-frequency statistical methods including organized temporal and spatial patterns of variability and covariability in the ocean-ice-atmosphere system over the past 50-200 years. The work will focus on modes other than the Arctic / North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO), including the multidecadal low-frequency oscillation. To further understanding of the mechanisms, the synthesis will use new output from multi-century model runs from the first coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) with independent stretched-coordinate systems for the atmosphere and ocean that have been resolution-optimized for the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic.