2015 Sea Ice Outlook
June Report Available
Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN)
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
The report is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2015/june
For more information, please contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS
Email: betsy [at] arcus.org
The June report for the 2015 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available! The
SIO is an activity of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN,
http://www.arcus.org/sipn) as a contribution to the Study of
Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH,
http://www.arcus.org/search-program). The goal of the SIO is to improve
Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales. You can view the
complete report at: http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2015/june.
The organizers thank the groups that contributed to the 2015 June
report; 32 contributions (one of which is regional only) is a record for
the Sea Ice Outlook and there were several new groups this year. This
month's report was developed by lead authors Cecilia Bitz (UW), Ed
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth (UW), and Jim Overland (NOAA), with
contributions from the rest of the SIPN leadership team
(http://www.arcus.org/sipn) and with a section analyzing the model
contributions by Francois Massonnet (Universite catholique de Louvain
and Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences).
The median Outlook value for September 2015 sea ice extent is 5.0
million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.4 and 5.2 million square
kilometers. Contributions are based on a range of methods: statistical,
numerical models, estimates based on trends, and subjective information.
We have a large spread in the Outlook contributions, which is not
surprising given the wide-ranging observed values for the September
extent in the past few years. The overall range (excluding an extreme
outlier) is 3.3 to 5.7 million square kilometers. The median Outlook
value is up from 4.7 million square kilometers in 2014. These values
compare to observed values of 4.3 million square kilometers in 2007, 4.6
million square kilometers in 2011, 3.6 million square kilometers in 2012
and 5.3 million square kilometers in 2014.
This month's report also includes the following pieces:
- A discussion about the 11 dynamical model contributions and their
variance, which is substantially less than last year;
- A section on regional outlooks including discussion on predictions
for sea ice probability (SIP), showing that SIP is expected to be
higher in some areas but smaller in others;
- A section on current and pre-season conditions including
discussion of this spring's rate of ice extent decline, sea ice
thickness products, and atmospheric conditions;
- Key statements from each individual Outlook; and
- Links to view or download the 32 Outlook contributions.
This is the first monthly SIO for the 2015 season. A call for
contributions for the July report will be announced via ArcticInfo and
the SIPN mailing list (http://www.arcus.org/sipn/mailing-list).
For more information, please contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS
Email: betsy [at] arcus.org
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