Call for 2012 Sea Ice Outlook Contributions - August Report (Based on July Data)

Date: 
24 July 2012

Call for 2012 Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
August Report (Based on July Data)
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

Pan-Arctic and Regional Outlook submission deadline:
Monday, 6 August 2012

For further information, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php

Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen@arcus.org

--------------------
The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook (SIO)
(http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php) organizers are
soliciting pan-arctic and regional outlooks for the August report, based
on July data. The August report will provide a brief update on the state
of the arctic sea ice, weather, and September sea ice extent
projections.

ALL Outlook submissions should be sent directly to Helen Wiggins, ARCUS,
at: helen@arcus.org.

SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK
Contributors may either: 1) provide short statements that summarize any
changes in the September sea ice extent projection from your previous
month's contribution, or 2) provide complete contributions, as outlined
below:

1. Extent Projection
Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea
ice extent (in million square kilometers).

2. Methods/Techniques
Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model
ensemble runs, etc.).

3. Rationale
Include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.

4. Executive Summary
Provide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in
two or three sentences.

5. Estimate of Forecast Skill (if available)
If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,
uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction.

We would like to expand discussion of ice thickness in the monthly
reports, so please include any relevant information on ice thickness (or
age), if available.

Submission deadline: Monday, 6 August 2012. Please send your Pan-Arctic
Outlook to: Helen Wiggins, ARCUS, at: helen@arcus.org.

SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Contributors may either: 1) provide short statements that summarize any
changes in the September sea ice extent projection from your previous
month's contribution, or 2) provide complete contributions, as outlined
below:

1. Region of Interest
While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please
specify which of the following the outlook applies to:

Arctic Regions:
- Beaufort-Chukchi Seas
- East Siberian-Laptev Seas
- Kara-Barents-Greenland Seas
- Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait
- Hudson Bay
- Sea of Okhotsk
- Bering Sea

Shipping Routes:
- Northwest Passage
- Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)
- Arctic Bridge (Murmansk-Churchill)

2. Sea Ice Parameter
Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phenological
stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates,
length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and
ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be
similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset,
earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice
concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up)
than those of summer 2011.

3. Outline of Methods/Techniques
Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model,
traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology
and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the
estimate.

4. Estimate of Forecast Skill
If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,
uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction.

5. Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional)
What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided
in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your
prediction?

Submission deadline: Monday, 6 August 2012. Please send your Regional
Outlook to Helen Wiggins, ARCUS, at: helen@arcus.org.

---------
TENTATIVE 2012 SEA ICE OUTLOOK SCHEDULE

AUGUST REPORT (using July data). Deadline for contributions: 6 August.
Publish reports online: 10 August.

MINIMUM ANNOUNCEMENT. Based on the National Snow and Ice Data Center's
(NSIDC) announcement for minimum.

POST-SEASON SYNOPSIS (exact dates dependent on when minimum is reached).
Deadline for contributions: early October. Publish post-season synopsis:
late October.

For further information on the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php.

Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen@arcus.org

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