Sea Ice Outlook | Overview

Monthly Reports: May | June | July | 2008 Sea Ice Minimum Announcement | Summary Report

Summary Report

Sea Ice Outlook Summary Report:   This report includes a preliminary analysis of the causes of the 2008 minimum, the accuracy of the Outlook values, and implications for future Outlook efforts. {more}

Upcoming Actitivies:   A series of follow-up activities are planned for this fall and winter, in order to complete a thorough retrospective analysis of 2008 season and to plan for a 2009 Sea Ice Outlook effort. {more}

The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook is an international effort to provide an integrated, community-wide summary of the state of arctic sea ice over the summer season.

This effort, which emerged from discussions at the "Arctic Observation Integration Workshops" held March 2008 in Palisades, NY, is a response by the scientific community to the need for better understanding of the arctic sea ice system, given the drastic and unexpected sea ice decline witnessed in 2007.

Sea Ice Sunset

The 2008 Sea Ice Outlook produced monthly reports based on an open and inclusive process that synthesized input from a broad range of scientific perspectives:

  1. Each month, a request to the international arctic science community solicited information on the current and expected state of the arctic sea ice.
  2. The community submissions were synthesized and reviewed by the Sea Ice Outlook Core Integration Group and Advisory Group.
  3. An integrated monthly report was produced that summarized the evolution and expected state of arctic sea ice for September 2008, based on the observations and analyses submitted by the science community. These reports were posted in the "monthly reports" section of this website and widely distributed.
  4. The process for producing the monthly Sea Ice Outlook reports was repeated through September 2008.
  5. A retrospective analysis will examine the success of the Sea Ice Outlook in advancing scientific understanding of the arctic sea ice system, and provide guidance to future research efforts.

The intent of the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook effort is not to issue predictions, but rather to summarize all available information from ongoing observing and modeling efforts to provide the scientific community, stakeholders, and the public the best available information on the evolution of the arctic sea ice cover.

The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook is implemented through close cooperation with the DAMOCLES program and other relevant national and international efforts. Sea Ice Outlook activities are supported in part through the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).